The numbers in Equatic's investor presentations tell a compelling story: their Quebec facility will remove 109,500 tonnes of CO2 annually while producing 3,600 tonnes of green hydrogen. The company markets an energy requirement of less than 1.4 MWh per tonne of CO2 removed – a figure that, if accurate, would position their technology favorably against competing carbon removal approaches.
But cross-referencing these marketing figures against available technical documentation reveals troubling discrepancies. While Equatic's presentations emphasize their energy efficiency, the company has yet to publish independently verified performance data for their full-scale system. This stands in stark contrast to academic research on similar technologies. A 2020 study in Nature Communications demonstrated a proof-of-concept electrochemical system for CO2 capture from ocean water with an energy consumption of 0.98 MWh per tonne – but this was achieved in controlled laboratory conditions, not commercial operations.
The technical cornerstone of Equatic's approach is their oxygen-selective anodes (OSAs), developed by Dr. Xin Chen at UCLA with ARPA-E funding. According to Dr. Doug Wicks from ARPA-E, "Equatic's OSAs eliminate the process's dependence on pure water" – a significant advantage for seawater electrolysis. The company has established a manufacturing facility in San Diego with a production capacity of 4,000 anodes annually.
Yet this production capacity raises questions about Equatic's aggressive commercialization timeline. Their Quebec facility would require a substantial number of these anodes, and the company claims they "are expected to last for decades, requiring only a new coat of catalysts after three years." This longevity claim appears optimistic when compared with published research on similar technologies. A 2023 study in Nano Research highlighted corrosion and passivation as key factors affecting anode longevity, while another study in Nano-Micro Letters noted that even optimized chlorine-suppressive catalysts face significant durability challenges.
The gap between Equatic's technical claims and independently verified performance metrics becomes particularly concerning when we consider the scale of their planned operations. Their Quebec facility represents a massive leap from their pilot projects in Los Angeles and Singapore, with no intermediate-scale demonstration to validate their efficiency claims in real-world conditions.
Verification Gaps in Carbon Accounting
These technical uncertainties directly impact Equatic's financial projections. With limited independently verified performance data from their pilot facilities in Los Angeles and Singapore, investors face significant challenges in accurately assessing whether the company's dual revenue streams – carbon credits and green hydrogen – rest on solid technological foundations or optimistic marketing claims. The carbon accounting methodology becomes the critical link between technical performance and financial returns.
Equatic's carbon removal claims rest on their measurement, reporting, and verification (MRV) methodology, developed in partnership with EcoEngineers and based on ISO 14064-2:2019 standards. The company emphasizes that this methodology provides "a clear road map that aligns with the highest industry standards," according to Dr. Roxby Hartley.
But a closer examination of this methodology reveals significant gaps. While Equatic describes their approach as "closed-system crediting, measuring changes in the carbonate system in both incoming and outgoing seawater," they provide limited detail on how they account for carbon leakage – the potential re-release of captured carbon back into the atmosphere.
The company states their MRV system employs "online sensors to monitor the chemical composition of seawater inflow, processed water flows, and atmospheric air, allowing for continuous data collection on CO2 drawdown." Yet these off-the-shelf sensors may not capture the complex ocean chemistry interactions that determine long-term carbon sequestration.
Most concerning is the lack of independent verification of their carbon accounting methodology. While Equatic commits to "publish total carbon removed and maintain a registry of retired carbon credits," there's no indication that third-party verifiers have validated their approach against established carbon market standards.
This verification gap creates a material financial risk when we consider that half of Equatic's revenue model depends on selling carbon credits. Boeing has already agreed to purchase 62,000 tonnes of CO2 removal, but the value of these credits hinges entirely on the credibility of Equatic's carbon accounting. If their methodology overstates actual carbon removal or fails to account for leakage, the credits could be worth substantially less than anticipated – or potentially worthless in increasingly scrutinized carbon markets.
Following the Money
Equatic's recent $11.6 million Series A funding round, led by Catalytic Capital for Climate and Health (C3H) and Kibo Invest, signals investor confidence in their approach. The company has attracted high-profile supporters, including Lord John Browne, former CEO of BP, who serves as Chairman of Equatic's Advisory Board. Browne has stated that "truly innovative carbon management technologies are needed to mitigate climate change" – lending his considerable reputation to Equatic's efforts.
But the financial documents tell a more complex story. The estimated cost for the Quebec facility ranges from $137.2 million to $164.6 million – creating a funding gap of approximately $126 million beyond their $11.6 million Series A round. This 10x funding shortfall raises questions about whether Equatic can meet their aggressive timeline without compromising technical performance or cutting regulatory corners.
Equatic's economic model creates an elegant financial model on paper – the same capital expenditure generates two revenue streams with supposedly uncorrelated market risks. However, it also creates compounding risks if either market underperforms.
The company targets carbon removal costs below $100 per tonne by 2030, compared to current direct air capture costs that exceed $1000 per ton for small-scale plants. This aggressive cost projection depends on both technological improvements and economies of scale that remain unproven.
Meanwhile, the green hydrogen market faces its own uncertainties. While Equatic has secured Boeing as a customer for both carbon removal and hydrogen, the broader market for green hydrogen remains nascent, with fluctuating prices and evolving regulations. The carbon credit market experienced significant volatility in 2023, with some credits dropping over 50% in price, demonstrating the financial risks inherent in carbon credit revenue models.
Regulatory Hurdles Threaten Timeline
This regulatory timeline creates significant tension with Equatic's investor-facing projections. Equatic's public statements project confidence about their timeline: engineering work for the Quebec facility has commenced, with operations expected to begin by 2026-2027. Edward Muller, Chairman of Equatic, has stated: "Quebec is the perfect location for commercial launch given the access to non-fossil electricity."
What these statements don't address are the significant regulatory hurdles Equatic faces. In Canada, disposal at sea is regulated under the Canadian Environmental Protection Act (CEPA), which requires permits for specific materials. The permit application process involves several phases: pre-application consultation, submission of application, assessment, and operations.
The assessment phase alone has a 90-day service standard to complete applications, starting once the application is deemed complete. After a permit is issued, periodic inspections and annual monitoring studies are conducted to ensure compliance and protect the marine environment.
If permit applications haven't yet been submitted, the 2026-2027 operational target appears increasingly unrealistic. For investors, this timeline mismatch suggests either a concerning lack of regulatory understanding or deliberate understatement of regulatory hurdles to maintain investor confidence.
Additionally, for Equatic to monetize carbon removal in Quebec's carbon market, their projects must follow approved regulations to receive offset credits. As of June 2025, only 2,041,189 offset credits have been issued since the program's inception in 2014 – suggesting a rigorous approval process that Equatic has yet to navigate.
The Investment Decision
For philanthropist investors evaluating Equatic's ocean-based carbon removal technology, the evidence reveals a company with promising technology but significant gaps between marketing claims and verified performance. Their dual-revenue model offers theoretical advantages over single-stream carbon removal approaches, but depends on unverified technical performance and navigating complex regulatory requirements.
Before committing capital, investors should demand:
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Independent verification of Equatic's energy efficiency claims through third-party testing at their pilot facilities, with published results comparing actual performance to the claimed 1.4 MWh per tonne of CO2 removed
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Third-party assessment of their carbon accounting methodology against established standards like the Verified Carbon Standard
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Detailed regulatory timeline including CEPA permit applications and approvals, with realistic assessment of potential delays
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Transparent cost structure showing sensitivity to carbon credit prices and hydrogen market fluctuations, including contingency plans for the $126 million funding gap
The Quebec facility represents an important test case, but investors should recognize it as a high-risk, early-stage venture rather than the proven commercial technology portrayed in Equatic's marketing materials. Until these verification gaps are addressed, Equatic remains a speculative investment in a promising but unproven approach to carbon removal – one where the financial risks may be as substantial as the environmental potential.
Things to follow up on...
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Carbon capture failures: Over 70% of carbon capture projects are enhanced oil recovery initiatives rather than dedicated carbon storage, with nearly 90% of proposed carbon capture capacity in power plants failing at the implementation stage since 2000.
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Seawater electrolysis advances: Recent research demonstrates successful scaling of floating seawater electrolysis systems that maintain stable operation for over 240 hours while producing high purity hydrogen under fluctuating ocean conditions.
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Carbon market growth: The global carbon credit market is projected to reach $4,983.7 billion by 2035, with high-durability CDR credits priced between $100-600 per ton reflecting significant premiums due to limited supply.
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Due diligence frameworks: Multiple verification standards exist for carbon removal projects, including MSCI's ratings for over 4,000 carbon credit projects that assess integrity based on additionality, permanence, and delivery risk criteria.