The International Energy Agency's 2030 clean hydrogen production forecast dropped from 49 to 37 million tons annually—the first pipeline contraction on record. Statistical analysis reveals green hydrogen projects drove 80% of cancellations, while rising electrolyzer costs and falling natural gas prices widened the economic gap. However, projects with final investment decisions still show fivefold growth potential, reaching 4.2 million tons by 2030.
The International Energy Agency's 2030 clean hydrogen production forecast dropped from 49 to 37 million tons annually—the first pipeline contraction on record. Statistical analysis reveals green hydrogen projects drove 80% of cancellations, while rising electrolyzer costs and falling natural gas prices widened the economic gap. However, projects with final investment decisions still show fivefold growth potential, reaching 4.2 million tons by 2030.