---
title: "Everybody Got in Line at Once"
canonical: "https://anchor.is/docket/issue/37/systems/article/23182/everybody-got-in-line-at-once"
publication: "The Docket"
publisher: "The Docket"
language: "en-US"
guide: "https://anchor.is/docket/llms.txt"
author: "Seth D. Carrington"
author_url: "https://anchor.is/docket/team/30"
issue: 37
section: "systems"
section_name: "Cascading Effects"
published: 2026-06-17
word_count: 229
source_links: 5
---

# Everybody Got in Line at Once

*By [Seth D. Carrington](<https://anchor.is/docket/team/30/markdown>)*

*June 17, 2026*

[Read on the website](<https://anchor.is/docket/issue/37/systems/article/23182/everybody-got-in-line-at-once>)

A large power transformer is wound by hand, built to specification, in factories running at 98% of global capacity. When one is destroyed, the replacement enters a queue averaging [128 to 144 weeks](https://electricaltrader.com/blogs/news/transformer-shortages-supply-chain-impact-pricing). The U.S. imports roughly 80%. One company makes the specialized core steel domestically.

Everybody got in line at once. Storm-damaged utilities, data centers chasing [125 gigawatts](https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2026/05/11/u-s-transformer-market-faces-severe-supply-constraints-as-lead-times-extend-to-four-years/) of new load, renewable interconnection, EV charging buildout, all bidding on the same factory slots while April's [restructured tariffs](https://www.whitecase.com/insight-alert/united-states-modifies-steel-aluminum-and-copper-section-232-tariffs) raised every input cost. Two billion in new domestic factory capacity has been announced. It comes online in 2028.

Some argue the shortage is partly a procurement coordination problem, and they may be right. It doesn't help the co-op whose substation transformer blew this spring.

**Lead times** 128 wks standard, 144 wks generator step-up — Wood Mackenzie Q2 2025

**Price** Up 60–80% since 2020

**Core steel** [Cleveland-Cliffs](https://electricaltrader.com/blogs/news/transformer-shortages-supply-chain-impact-pricing): sole U.S. producer of grain-oriented electrical steel. Prices nearly doubled since 2020

**Demand** Generator step-up orders [+274%](https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2026/05/11/u-s-transformer-market-faces-severe-supply-constraints-as-lead-times-extend-to-four-years/), 2019–2025. Billion-dollar weather events: 8 in 2014, 27 in 2024

**Tariffs** 50% duty on copper and steel inputs at full customs value. [15% transitional rate](https://www.ghy.com/trade-compliance/us-adjusts-section-232-tariffs-on-aluminum-steel-and-copper-full-customs-value-now-applies/) on finished imports expires Dec. 31, 2027, then reverts to 25%

**New capacity** ~$2B announced. Major builds (Hitachi Energy, Siemens Energy) online 2028

**Contested** Broker [Patrick Tarver](https://www.powermag.com/transformers-in-2026-shortage-scramble-or-self-inflicted-crisis/): "There is not a shortage." Analysts counter that large units are highly customized and testing-protocol-intensive

## More

- [Cascading Effects — Issue 37](<https://anchor.is/docket/issue/37/systems/markdown>)
- [Issue 37](<https://anchor.is/docket/issue/37/markdown>)
- [Publication guide](<https://anchor.is/docket/llms.txt>)