Battery-grade lithium carbonate touched RMB 200,500/MT on May 13 (Trading Economics), a two-year high, before pulling back to RMB 191,000/MT by May 20 on early restart activity. The move from October 2025's RMB 73,550/MT floor is almost entirely supply-disruption driven: Jianxiawo offline since August 2025, Zimbabwe's February 2026 export suspension removing roughly 15% of China's lithium concentrate imports.
Cost transmission is already visible. SMM's theoretical cost model shows 314 Ah LFP cell costs up 31.6% in 3.5 months through January 2026. Offer validity windows have compressed from three months to fourteen days (Fastmarkets, March 3, 2026). But InfoLink's April 20 assessment notes lithium salt spot markets have not fully tightened, and mine restarts are responding to price. If Jiangxi resolves, the speculative premium unwinds. The durable Tier-2 pressure lives elsewhere.