--- title: "The Log" canonical: "https://anchor.is/the-hysteresis/issue/1/the-log" publication: "The Hysteresis" publisher: "The Hysteresis" language: "en-US" guide: "https://anchor.is/the-hysteresis/llms.txt" permalink: "https://anchor.is/the-hysteresis/issue/1/the-log" issue: 1 section: "the-log" description: "What was announced, built, and cancelled" authors: ["Elise Huan-Cartwright"] published: 2026-05-25 updated: 2026-05-26 articles: 10 --- # The Hysteresis > The Hysteresis exists to give a small cross-functional team — strategy, investment, and procurement — a shared weekly instrument for reading the battery supply chain earlier than consensus. Success means the team consistently identifies inflection points in cell pricing, supplier health, and policy enforcement weeks or months before they surface in earnings calls, annual surveys, or trade press. The commercial mechanism is internal-first: the publication proves itself as a decision tool inside the organization, then extends to paid subscribers and a practitioner community as upside. Revenue follows utility — if the team makes better-timed procurement calls and competitive assessments because of what they read here, the publication earned its place. [Read on the website]() ## Issue 1 — The Log What was announced, built, and cancelled ### Anode Tariff Reversal - [ITC Kills AD/CVD Duties on Chinese Active Anode Material in 2-1 Negative Finding]() — Published 2026-05-23 On March 12, 2026, the ITC voted 2-1 that Chinese AAM imports are "not materially retarding the establishment" of a domestic industry. Commissioner Kearns dissented. Commerce had already found combined AD/CVD margins around 160% (final CVD 66.82–66.86%, AD 93.5%, China-wide 102.72%). Both agencies must concur for orders to issue. They did not. Cash deposits collected during the investigation will be refunded. ### AESC Status Audit - [AESC US Footprint — Stated vs. Observed Audit]() — By [Elise Huan-Cartwright]() · Published 2026-05-23 · Format: The Stated vs. Observed Audit AESC has three US facilities. Florence is twelve months into a construction "pause" with no disclosed financing and identical company language at every update. Bowling Green received $105M in state forgivable loans and has produced no independently verifiable evidence of progress since structural topping-out in September 2023; its first job target doesn't trigger until 2029. Smyrna is producing LFP cells, but under a newly formed entity whose retained AESC licensing structure has not been tested against FEOC rules. Three facilities, three distinct modes of divergence. The ledger tracks each. ### JV Dissolution Pattern - [Four JV Dissolutions. 50 GWh Stated. 16.5 GWh Verified.]() — By [Elise Huan-Cartwright]() · Published 2026-05-23 · Format: JV Dissolution Pattern Four OEM–Korean battery manufacturing joint ventures have unwound within twelve months. Ford, GM, and Stellantis each exited battery cell ownership. LGES absorbed most of the assets, targeting more than 50 GWh of North American ESS capacity by year-end 2026. Verified production traceable to a named facility with confirmed output: 16.5 GWh, at Holland, Michigan. The entity responsible for closing that 33.5+ GWh gap posted a Q1 2026 operating loss of KRW 207.8 billion. Every other facility in the cohort is at some stage of conversion, from shuttered-with-announcement to ramping-without-confirmed-output. That gap between stated capacity and verified production is the supply concentration risk. ### Policy Implementation State - [2026 US Battery Policy Reference — Operative, Gapped, Pending, Unknowable]() — By [Elise Huan-Cartwright]() · Published 2026-05-23 · Format: Policy Implementation State Four tiers of US battery policy as of May 2026: operative and enforceable, issued but gapped, pending with known deadlines, and structurally unknowable from public sources. The FEOC graphite exemption expires December 31 with no extension proposed or signaled. The domestic anode capacity the policy architecture assumed would exist by then largely does not. Every entry cites its source document, names its effective date, and marks inferred status as inferred. Open this before modeling §45X eligibility, calculating a tariff stack, or qualifying a sourcing route for 2027 vehicle programs. ### Reference Stack - **ITC Negative Injury Determination on Active Anode Material from China** — [Source]() — Published 2026-05-23 The government record terminating the AD/CVD case. No secondary account substitutes for the primary source. - **New IRS MACR Guidance: What It Means for Section 45X Advanced Manufacturing Production Tax Credits** — [Source]() — Published 2026-05-23 Best available walkthrough of the MACR calculation methodology, including what the guidance deliberately leaves open. - **US Treasury and IRS Release Interim PFE Guidance for 45X and 48E Tax Credit Eligibility** — [Source]() — Published 2026-05-23 Covers both 45X and 48E PFE regimes in one read; flags the IP/licensing risk for foreign-technology facilities. - **AESC Sells Tennessee Lithium Battery Cell Manufacturing Plant to Fixx Energy** — [Source]() — Published 2026-05-23 Most complete open-access account of the AESC-Fixx deal, Fluence offtake, and FEOC-driven ownership restructuring. - **LG Energy Solution Q1 2026 Financial Results** — [Source]() — Published 2026-05-23 Only primary-source disclosure of a North America 45X production incentive figure available in public filings. - **US Battery Industry Cuts Losses, Shifts to New Ventures Amid EV Bust** — [Source]() — Published 2026-05-23 Neutral institutional framing of the EV-to-ESS pivot and LFP dependence. Citable in investor memos. ## Other sections in Issue 1 - [Signal]() - [China]() - [Korea]() - [Defense]() - [Qualification]() ## More - [Publication guide]() - [Issue archive]()