--- title: "Signal" canonical: "https://anchor.is/the-hysteresis/issue/10/signal" publication: "The Hysteresis" publisher: "The Hysteresis" language: "en-US" guide: "https://anchor.is/the-hysteresis/llms.txt" permalink: "https://anchor.is/the-hysteresis/issue/10/signal" issue: 10 section: "signal" description: "The numbers, their velocity, and what moves next" authors: ["Elise Huan-Cartwright"] published: 2026-08-17 updated: 2026-08-15 articles: 16 --- # The Hysteresis > The Hysteresis exists to give a small cross-functional team — strategy, investment, and procurement — a shared weekly instrument for reading the battery supply chain earlier than consensus. Success means the team consistently identifies inflection points in cell pricing, supplier health, and policy enforcement weeks or months before they surface in earnings calls, annual surveys, or trade press. The commercial mechanism is internal-first: the publication proves itself as a decision tool inside the organization, then extends to paid subscribers and a practitioner community as upside. Revenue follows utility — if the team makes better-timed procurement calls and competitive assessments because of what they read here, the publication earned its place. [Read on the website]() ## Issue 10 — Signal The numbers, their velocity, and what moves next ### Weekly Tape Two upstream cost inputs are rising while downstream cell and system prices stay put. Lithium carbonate posted a sharp daily gain on SMM's August 14 reading, but the two primary assessors now diverge by nearly RMB 10,000/MT — and one source's weekly direction is internally contradicted. Iron phosphate, up roughly 50% since year-end 2025, is already flowing through processing-fee increases at the cathode level. Large-format LFP ESS cells held flat for a second straight week on both InfoLink and SMM. EV cells showed a marginal upward tick absent in the ESS series. System-level pricing has transmitted neither signal. Korean Q2 earnings supplied revenue mix data but no $/kWh ASPs. The US tariff stack simplified to 28.4% after the Section 122 expiry in late July. - **LFP ESS Cells Flat, Upstream Inputs Rising** — [Source]() — Published 2026-08-14 Tag: ESS Cells InfoLink RMB 0.360/Wh (Aug 12), SMM RMB 0.367/Wh (Aug 14), both unchanged WoW. Second consecutive flat week following InfoLink's -2.7% WoW concession on July 29. The RMB 0.007/Wh assessor gap persists. Upstream lithium carbonate and iron phosphate both rising — no transmission to cell pricing yet. - **China EV Cells Tick Up Against Rising Inputs** — [Source]() — Published 2026-08-14 Tag: EV Cells SMM Aug 14: LFP 100 Ah $52.30/kWh (+$0.10), 174 Ah $52.60/kWh (+$0.10). NMC mixed — 5-series flat at $82.00, 6-series +$0.10 to $81.80, 8-series flat at $94.00. Marginal upward bias in LFP EV cells that the large-format ESS series has not shown. - **Lithium Carbonate Spikes, Assessors Diverge Sharply** — [Source]() — Published 2026-08-14 Tag: Lithium Input SMM domestic average RMB 151,500/MT (Aug 14), up RMB 4,000/MT on the day. InfoLink's Aug 12 level sits at RMB 142,000/MT — a cross-source gap of roughly RMB 9,500/MT. InfoLink's own weekly summary is internally contradicted: table shows +1.1%, bullet text says -1.1%. Treat both assessments with caution until the gap resolves. - **Iron Phosphate Up 50% Since Year-End 2025** — [Source]() — Published 2026-08-14 Tag: Iron Phosphate ~RMB 10,000/MT at year-end 2025 to RMB 15,000/MT currently. Hunan Yuneng raised LFP processing fees RMB 2,000/MT effective August 1. Some cell makers accepted iron-phosphate-linked settlement terms in April–May, splitting fixed and indexed contract exposure across different calendars. A second upstream cost vector now running alongside lithium. - **System Prices Flat Despite Cell and Input Movement** — [Source]() — Published 2026-08-14 Tag: ESS Systems InfoLink two-hour DC container RMB 0.49/Wh, four-hour AC system RMB 0.53/Wh, both flat WoW. The system layer has transmitted neither InfoLink's July 29 cell softness nor August's upstream lithium and iron phosphate pressure. Non-cell BOP costs remain sticky at this level. - **Hebei Storage Tender Clears Below InfoLink Assessment** — [Source]() — Published 2026-08-14 Tag: Buyer Signal Hebei Transportation Investment Group awarded 300 MW / 1,200 MWh at approximately RMB 0.525/Wh. Scope includes cells, PCS, transformers, BMS, EMS, fire protection, installation, and warranty. Clears just below InfoLink's RMB 0.53/Wh four-hour AC-system assessment — a real-transaction data point against the published benchmark. - **Korean Q2 Earnings Yield No Cell Price Data** — [Source]() — Published 2026-08-14 Tag: Korean ASPs LGES, Samsung SDI, and SK Innovation reported Q2 without publishing $/kWh ASPs. LGES ESS revenue hit 4.6x prior year; ex-45X operating loss narrowed to -KRW 127.7B from Q1's -KRW 397.6B. Revenue mix shifts make price inference unreliable. No Korean cell-price update this quarter. - **US Tariff Stack Settles at 28.4% Post-Expiry** — [Source]() — Published 2026-08-14 Tag: US Landed Chinese-origin cells (HTSUS 8507.60.00): 3.4% MFN plus 25% Section 301, totaling 28.4% ad valorem. The 10% Section 122 surcharge expired July 24. At InfoLink's ~$0.050/Wh cell level, the stack adds roughly $0.014/Wh before freight, insurance, and system integration. ### Velocity Synthesis - [Carbonate +6.1% WoW; Cell Quotes Did Not Move]() — By [Elise Huan-Cartwright]() · Published 2026-08-14 · Format: The Velocity Synthesis Battery-grade lithium carbonate reached RMB 151,663/MT on August 14, up 6.1% WoW and the sharpest weekly move since the rally began in late July. LFP cell quotes did not follow: both ESS assessors flat for the second consecutive week, EV formats at the minimum display increment. The gap is now wide enough to name what is carrying it — inventory basis, CAM contract lags, cell-maker margin, share preservation — and to say when each runs out. September CAM settlement resets are the first observable test. ### Transmission Mechanism - [Lithium Moves Up; the Concession Window Tightens]() — By [Elise Huan-Cartwright]() · Published 2026-08-14 InfoLink's [July 29 assessment](https://www.infolink-group.com/energy-article/ess-spot-price-20260729) attributed RMB 0.010/Wh concessions on 280/314 Ah LFP ESS cells to a named condition: easing upstream cost pressure. SMM's August 14 lithium carbonate at RMB 151,500/MT — up roughly RMB 8,000–11,000/MT from the range prevailing when those concessions were offered — is eroding that condition. Cells shipping today still embed lower-cost material. But the supplier can point to the same SMM screen the buyer watches and withdraw the discount before higher-cost cathode reaches the line. Hunan Yuneng already did this at the CAM layer: a [processing-fee increase](https://news.metal.com/newscontent/104008673) effective August 1, citing input costs that hadn't yet flowed through every unit leaving the facility. If you're negotiating Q4 ESS cell commitments, the relevant signal is the screen price trajectory, not the lagging cost basis in current inventory. ### Verification Access - **ESS Cell Spot Flat at RMB 0.360/Wh; InfoLink's Own Lithium Direction Contradicts Itself** — [Source]() — Published 2026-08-14 August 12 cell assessment unchanged. Lithium narrative in text conflicts with table data — flag before citing. - **CME Lithium Carbonate Options Go Live August 17; Futures Volume Already at Record** — [Source]() — Published 2026-08-14 New hedging layer for CIF CJK benchmark. Basis risk to actual cell procurement costs still unaddressed. - **China ESS Tender Prices Rose in H1 2026: Four-Hour System Bids Up 21% YoY on 148 GWh Tendered** — [Source]() — Published 2026-08-14 CNESA data: tendered energy capacity up 88% YoY. Winning bids rising across durations — rate of cell price decline may be stalling. - **Fastmarkets Revises CIF CJK Lithium Carbonate Spec September 1 — Time Series Breaks** — [Source]() — Published 2026-08-14 Quality, tonnage, and payment term changes to MB-LI-0029. Any model crossing August 31 needs a rebasing note. - **SMM: Lithium Carbonate Spot Extends Multi-Day Rebound; Chile July Exports Up 8% MoM** — [Source]() — Published 2026-08-14 August 7 confirms continued spot rise. Chile shipped 23,400 MT in July — supply-side tightness narrative weakens. - **CME Clearing Advisory: Lithium Options European-Style, Financially Settled, First Month September 2026** — [Source]() — Published 2026-08-14 Official listing details confirm structure. Pending regulatory review. Physical delivery still absent from exchange hedging. ## Other sections in Issue 10 - [China]() - [Korea]() - [The Log]() - [Defense]() - [Qualification]() ## More - [Publication guide]() - [Issue archive]()