--- title: "The Log" canonical: "https://anchor.is/the-hysteresis/issue/10/the-log" publication: "The Hysteresis" publisher: "The Hysteresis" language: "en-US" guide: "https://anchor.is/the-hysteresis/llms.txt" permalink: "https://anchor.is/the-hysteresis/issue/10/the-log" issue: 10 section: "the-log" description: "What was announced, built, and cancelled" authors: ["Elise Huan-Cartwright","Ronan Adike"] published: 2026-08-17 updated: 2026-08-14 articles: 10 --- # The Hysteresis > The Hysteresis exists to give a small cross-functional team — strategy, investment, and procurement — a shared weekly instrument for reading the battery supply chain earlier than consensus. Success means the team consistently identifies inflection points in cell pricing, supplier health, and policy enforcement weeks or months before they surface in earnings calls, annual surveys, or trade press. The commercial mechanism is internal-first: the publication proves itself as a decision tool inside the organization, then extends to paid subscribers and a practitioner community as upside. Revenue follows utility — if the team makes better-timed procurement calls and competitive assessments because of what they read here, the publication earned its place. [Read on the website]() ## Issue 10 — The Log What was announced, built, and cancelled ### Policy Implementation State - [No new PFE or FEOC guidance through August 14 — Notice 2026-15 still governs]() — By [Elise Huan-Cartwright]() · Published 2026-08-14 IRS Notice 2026-15 ([February 12, 2026](https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-drop/n-26-15.pdf)) remains the operative document for PFE material assistance cost ratio calculations under 45X, 45Y, and 48E. IRS bulletin, Federal Register, and regulatory-docket checks through August 14 identified no superseding guidance, proposed regulations, or updated safe-harbor tables. Law firm analyses published through [July 2026](https://foleyhoag.com/news-and-insights/blogs/energy-and-climate-counsel/2026/july/the-prohibited-foreign-entity-(or-feoc)-rules-and-battery-storage/) continue to cite Notice 2026-15 without referencing replacement guidance. ### New Carlisle Audit - [Samsung SDI New Carlisle — What the GM Buyout Transfers, Resets, and Leaves Unverifiable]() — By [Elise Huan-Cartwright]() · Published 2026-08-14 · Format: The Stated vs. Observed Audit Samsung SDI's acquisition of GM's stake at New Carlisle changes ownership and stated application, from EV cells to stationary storage. It does not change what is physically on the site: an erected shell with no production equipment installed or reported on order. Equipment ordering slipped through four successive deferrals before an application change voided the plan it was slipping against. State and county incentive agreements still reference EV production and a December 2027 deadline. Samsung's disclosed ESS contracts and capacity targets point to Kokomo. ### Production Evidence Gap - [Two LGES Facilities Declared ESS Mass Production. The Public Record Doesn't Show What's Available.]() — By [Elise Huan-Cartwright]() · Published 2026-08-14 · Format: Production Evidence Gap LGES confirmed ESS-cell production at L-H Ohio in June and Spring Hill in May, with L-H declaring "mass production" on July 1. Both facilities count toward LGES's 50 GWh North American ESS capacity target. We audited every available disclosure type — company announcements, quarterly aggregates, Vertech portfolio figures, DOE records, Korean-language filings, 45X credit payments — against the evidence states required to treat a facility as procurable supply. All confirm production started; none reaches facility-specific converted GWh, stabilized yield, customer-qualified volume, or uncommitted allocation. ### Cancellation Denominator - [The Missing Denominator in US Battery Cancellation Data]() — By [Ronan Adike]() · Published 2026-08-14 · Format: Cancellation Denominator Rhodium's Q1 2026 data puts cancelled battery and EV manufacturing investment at $1.6 billion, down from $8.4 billion the prior quarter. E2's cumulative tracker shows project cancellations still climbing. The two are regularly cited against each other as competing assessments of pipeline health, which they are not: the tracked universes differ, the reporting periods differ, and "cancelled" does not mean the same thing in both. Open the methodology and the disagreement resolves. What remains is a harder problem — no published source provides the structure needed to determine whether a project entering the pipeline today faces better or worse odds than one announced two years ago. ### External Sources - **Samsung SDI Buys Out GM's Stake in New Carlisle JV, Pivots 27 GWh Plant to ESS** — [Source]() — Published 2026-08-14 Ownership transfer and EV-to-ESS conversion confirmed. No revised capacity or construction timeline disclosed. - **LGES Q2 2026: Ultium Cells Tennessee and Honda JV Begin ESS Cell Production** — [Source]() — Published 2026-08-14 First confirmed ESS cell output at two US JV plants. KRW 241B production incentive disclosed without facility-level split. - **Rhodium Q1 2026: Battery Manufacturing Investment Down 47% YoY as Cancellations Drop from Record** — [Source]() — Published 2026-08-14 Cancellation dollars down 81% from Q4 2025 peak, but new announced investment at a five-year low. - **E2 Tracker: 38 EV/Battery Projects Cancelled or Downsized Since Start of 2025** — [Source]() — Published 2026-08-14 Cumulative cancelled or downsized project count still climbing. Methodology excludes ownership transfers and delays. - **Samsung SDI Returns to Operating Profit After Seven Quarters, Cites AMPC and ESS Demand** — [Source]() — Published 2026-08-14 US production incentive booked in Q2 earnings but no facility-level AMPC amount disclosed. 45X data gap persists. - **Detroit News: Construction at GM-Samsung Indiana Plant "Stalled Earlier This Year"** — [Source]() — Published 2026-08-14 Local reporting says construction stalled; Samsung maintains "under construction" language. Registry discrepancy flagged. ## Other sections in Issue 10 - [Signal]() - [China]() - [Korea]() - [Defense]() - [Qualification]() ## More - [Publication guide]() - [Issue archive]()