--- title: "Signal" canonical: "https://anchor.is/the-hysteresis/issue/11/signal" publication: "The Hysteresis" publisher: "The Hysteresis" language: "en-US" guide: "https://anchor.is/the-hysteresis/llms.txt" permalink: "https://anchor.is/the-hysteresis/issue/11/signal" issue: 11 section: "signal" description: "The numbers, their velocity, and what moves next" authors: ["Elise Huan-Cartwright"] published: 2026-08-24 updated: 2026-08-22 articles: 16 --- # The Hysteresis > The Hysteresis exists to give a small cross-functional team — strategy, investment, and procurement — a shared weekly instrument for reading the battery supply chain earlier than consensus. Success means the team consistently identifies inflection points in cell pricing, supplier health, and policy enforcement weeks or months before they surface in earnings calls, annual surveys, or trade press. The commercial mechanism is internal-first: the publication proves itself as a decision tool inside the organization, then extends to paid subscribers and a practitioner community as upside. Revenue follows utility — if the team makes better-timed procurement calls and competitive assessments because of what they read here, the publication earned its place. [Read on the website]() ## Issue 11 — Signal The numbers, their velocity, and what moves next ### Split Signal Board Five things moved this week. Lithium carbonate reversed direction and accelerated to +5.3% WoW on tight spot supply. Fluence's contractual penalty exposure nearly doubled in a single quarter, with the LD-to-commitment ratio jumping from 7.9% to 13.6%. Samsung SDI posted its first positive operating quarter in seven; LGES narrowed its underlying loss but remains negative once 45X incentives are stripped. Four U.S. storage RFPs are live across PJM, the Carolinas, Illinois, and New York. And SMM is retiring three pack-price series August 28, acknowledging that pack heterogeneity has outgrown a unified benchmark. Three things didn't. InfoLink's mainstream ESS cells printed RMB 0.360/Wh for three straight weeks. The EV cell tape barely shifted. System-level assessments held. Lithium accelerated upstream; cell prices absorbed nothing downstream. The inter-assessor spread on ESS cells is still wider than the lithium cost impulse itself. - **Weekly Rate Accelerates to Plus Five Percent** — [Source]() — Published 2026-08-21 Tag: Lithium Carbonate InfoLink battery-grade lithium carbonate: RMB 140,000/MT (August 5) to RMB 149,000/MT (August 19). Week-on-week sequence: -2.8%, +1.1%, +5.3%. Three consecutive weeks of acceleration. InfoLink attributes the move to tight spot availability and delayed supply restoration, not broad demand pull. SC6 spodumene directionally consistent. - **Fluence Penalty Ratio Jumped to Thirteen Percent** — [Source]() — Published 2026-08-21 Tag: Buyer Risk Fluence 10-Q (Q3 FY2026): potential liquidated damages rose from $209.3M to $396.3M QoQ. Minimum purchase commitments grew from $2.640B to $2.913B. LD-to-commitment ratio: 7.9% to 13.6%. Penalties up 89% against commitments up 10%. The asymmetry prices in volume risk the company hasn't yet delivered against. - **Samsung SDI Positive After Seven Loss Quarters** — [Source]() — Published 2026-08-21 Tag: Korean Makers Samsung SDI posted KRW 203.8B consolidated operating profit in Q2, first positive quarter in seven. LGES reported KRW 113.3B headline profit, but strip out KRW 241B in 45X production incentives and the underlying loss was KRW 127.7B, narrowed from roughly KRW 397.6B in Q1. Neither disclosed a cell ASP. - **Four Storage RFPs Active No Cleared Prices** — [Source]() — Published 2026-08-21 Tag: U.S. Procurement Appalachian Power (up to 800 MW, due September 30), Duke Energy Carolinas (~400 MW, bid window open), Illinois Power Agency (1,038 MW indexed-credit, expected August 26), Central Hudson (10+ MW, due September 14). Structures range from asset purchase to indexed credit. No awarded $/kWh published for any. - **SMM Retiring Three Pack Price Series August 28** — [Source]() — Published 2026-08-21 Tag: Series Break SMM will publish final assessments for its 51.9 kWh prismatic LFP, 18.3 kWh prismatic LFP, and 42.8 kWh NMC pack series on August 28. Pack designs have grown too project-specific to support a representative unified benchmark. Cell-level and battery-cabin assessments continue. - **ESS Cell Prices Flat Three Consecutive Weeks** — [Source]() — Published 2026-08-21 Tag: BESS Cells InfoLink 280Ah and 314Ah LFP ESS cells held at RMB 0.360/Wh (~$53.1/kWh) through August 5, 12, and 19. SMM's 314Ah assessment: RMB 0.366/Wh (~$54.0/kWh), also unchanged. The RMB 6/kWh gap between assessors exceeds the estimated RMB 4.8/kWh lithium cost impulse from the same period. - **China EV Cell Tape Barely Moved This Week** — [Source]() — Published 2026-08-21 Tag: EV Cells SMM August 21 EV cell table: three of six line items unchanged, three showed moves of $0.30-$0.40/kWh. Range spans $52.6/kWh (100Ah prismatic LFP) to $95.0/kWh (158Ah 8-series prismatic NMC). The table mixes chemistries, formats, and capacities; treat as a composite, not a single market price. - **China ESS System Assessments Unchanged at Latest Reading** — [Source]() — Published 2026-08-21 Tag: System Prices InfoLink August 19 averages: 2-hour DC at RMB 0.49/Wh (~$72.3/kWh), 2-hour AC at RMB 0.58/Wh (~$85.5/kWh), 4-hour AC at RMB 0.53/Wh (~$78.2/kWh). All flat versus prior week. PCS, thermal management, BMS, and balance-of-system costs dilute cell-level input moves at the system level. ### Velocity Synthesis - [Lithium Carbonate +RMB 9/kg in Two Weeks; Cell Assessments Held Flat]() — By [Elise Huan-Cartwright]() · Published 2026-08-21 · Format: The Velocity Synthesis Lithium carbonate rose RMB 9/kg over two weeks. LFP ESS cell assessments didn't move. The available read is cost absorption, but the implied material-cost sensitivity (~RMB 4.8/kWh) is smaller than the RMB 6/kWh gap between InfoLink's and SMM's midpoints for the same 314 Ah product — absorption and non-arrival produce the same flat print. Separately: SMM withdraws its pack-level price series after August 28, and over 2.2 GW of US storage procurement is active with no public clearing price. ### Hidden Cost Layer - [What $/kWh Leaves Out]() — By [Elise Huan-Cartwright]() · Published 2026-08-21 Fluence's [June 30 10-Q](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1868941/000186894126000029/flnc-20260630.htm) discloses $396.3M in potential liquidated damages against $2.913B in minimum battery-cell purchase commitments. That LD-to-commitment ratio — approximately 13.6% — was ~7.9% at March 31. A 570-basis-point increase in one quarter. The FY2028 LD tranche ($122.8M) exceeds FY2027 ($111.6M), meaning penalty exposure is forward-loading, not amortizing. Separately, Fluence extended a $30M working-capital loan to an unnamed cell supplier in May and carries $84M in capacity-guarantee advances. Combined supplier financial support: $114M. Gross margin compressed to 5.1% from 14.8% YoY, attributed partly to rising battery prices. These commitments — LDs, advances, supplier credit — sit outside every cell-price benchmark but inside every procurement decision. ### Source Access - **Lithium Carbonate Up 5.3% in a Week; Chinese LFP Cell Prices Unchanged** — [Source]() — Published 2026-08-21 InfoLink Aug 19 assessment: carbonate costs accelerating with zero cell pass-through yet. Margin compression building. - **Fluence 10-Q: $2.9B in Cell Purchase Commitments, Liquidated-Damages Exposure Nearly Doubled as Share of Backlog** — [Source]() — Published 2026-08-21 Q3 filing shows 13.6% penalty exposure and gross margin hit from battery price increases on locked contracts. - **Samsung SDI Q2: KRW 204B Operating Profit, but Ex-Tariff Refunds the Result Was Marginal** — [Source]() — Published 2026-08-21 First positive quarter in seven. Management called the ex-policy result "a small profit" on the earnings call. - **Appalachian Power Issues 800 MW Storage RFPs with Domestic-Content Preference, Due September 30** — [Source]() — Published 2026-08-21 Two structures: 500 MW equity acquisition, 300 MW capacity purchase. PJM Virginia. Buyer signal worth tracking. - **LG Energy Solution Q2: KRW 113.3B Reported Operating Profit Includes KRW 241B in North American Incentives** — [Source]() — Published 2026-08-21 Strip the production incentives and core manufacturing economics are KRW 127.7B negative. Second Korean maker policy-dependent. - **Fastmarkets CIF CJK Lithium Hydroxide Spec Change Takes Effect September 1** — [Source]() — Published 2026-08-21 Quality and tonnage specs shifting on the key seaborne benchmark. Expect a methodology break in the series. ## Other sections in Issue 11 - [China]() - [Korea]() - [The Log]() - [Defense]() - [Qualification]() ## More - [Publication guide]() - [Issue archive]()