--- title: "The Log" canonical: "https://anchor.is/the-hysteresis/issue/12/the-log" publication: "The Hysteresis" publisher: "The Hysteresis" language: "en-US" guide: "https://anchor.is/the-hysteresis/llms.txt" permalink: "https://anchor.is/the-hysteresis/issue/12/the-log" issue: 12 section: "the-log" description: "What was announced, built, and cancelled" authors: ["Elise Huan-Cartwright","Ronan Adike"] published: 2026-08-31 updated: 2026-08-29 articles: 10 --- # The Hysteresis > The Hysteresis exists to give a small cross-functional team — strategy, investment, and procurement — a shared weekly instrument for reading the battery supply chain earlier than consensus. Success means the team consistently identifies inflection points in cell pricing, supplier health, and policy enforcement weeks or months before they surface in earnings calls, annual surveys, or trade press. The commercial mechanism is internal-first: the publication proves itself as a decision tool inside the organization, then extends to paid subscribers and a practitioner community as upside. Revenue follows utility — if the team makes better-timed procurement calls and competitive assessments because of what they read here, the publication earned its place. [Read on the website]() ## Issue 12 — The Log What was announced, built, and cancelled ### The Missing Denominator - [Counting Cancellations Without a Denominator]() — By [Elise Huan-Cartwright]() · Published 2026-08-29 US battery project cancellations exceeded new announcements for the first time in 2025, [$11B cancelled against $8B announced](https://www.csis.org/analysis/new-phase-us-battery-industry). As a procurement signal, this number lacks a denominator. ### Single-Facility Demonstration - [Forge Nano Morrisville: Stated 2026, Broke Ground 2026, Production Now 2028]() — By [Elise Huan-Cartwright]() · Published 2026-08-29 · Format: The Stated vs. Observed Audit Forge Nano broke ground in Morrisville on August 19, two years after the plant was supposed to be operational. The project is alive: lease signed, DOE grant drawing down, Samsung SDI in as equity investor, equipment supplier, and offtaker. It is also unfunded past the $100 million federal grant, with the S-4 describing the remaining $200–230 million as expected rather than committed and management disclosing going-concern doubt. What follows tracks 33 months of stated milestones against observable signals, and what the resulting cadence implies for the 2028 production target. ### Cohort Promise Assessment - [What Happened to 44 Battery Manufacturing Commitments Made in 2022–2023]() — By [Elise Huan-Cartwright]() · Published 2026-08-29 · Format: Cohort Promise Assessment Across twelve US battery facilities and forty-four measurable commitments, six were met as originally stated. Sixteen were missed or abandoned, and eight sit in a category where company language and observable evidence diverge enough that a binary score would mislead. Each facility entry pairs the original promise — start-of-production date, nameplate GWh, job count, product type — against the most recent verifiable status, sourced to SEC filings, state incentive records, WARN notices and DOE loan documents. Cohort-level patterns, including which commitment dimension degrades first and how outcomes sort by sponsor type, follow the facility detail. ### Supply Timeline Implications - [What Systematic Facility Delays Mean for US Cell Procurement Timelines]() — By [Ronan Adike]() · Published 2026-08-29 · Format: Supply Timeline Implications Year-end 2025 installed US cell manufacturing capacity reached 295 GWh. Pipeline trackers project over 1,100 GWh by 2035. A procurement team trying to contract domestic cells for a 2027 or 2028 program cannot use either figure. Facility-level evidence — delayed production starts, suspended construction, full-product conversions, operational interruptions — shows systematic slippage across the US cohort. The number of facilities that could plausibly offer qualified, uncommitted cell supply to a new buyer in 2027 is in the low single digits, and the volume available from each is undisclosed. ### External Reading - **Clean Investment Monitor Q2 2026: Battery Manufacturing Posts First Sequential Uptick Since Late 2024, Still 34% Below Year-Ago** — [Source]() — Published 2026-08-28 CIM tracks actual investment flows, not announcements. Useful for pattern-read denominator on quarterly cadence. - **IEA Global EV Outlook 2026: US Facilities Hold 35% of Nameplate Capacity, Produced 3% of EV Batteries in 2025** — [Source]() — Published 2026-08-28 IEA quantifies the nameplate-to-output gap; finds most facilities need five-plus years to reach nominal output. - **EDF/Atlas Q2 2026 Tracker: $39.6B in Clean Manufacturing Cancelled Since January 2025, 53,400 Jobs Lost** — [Source]() — Published 2026-08-28 Weekly-updated facility-level tracker. EV and battery segment remains most volatile. Cross-reference against registry entries. - **Atlas Public Policy: US Posted First Net-Negative Clean Energy Investment Year in 2025; Battery Sector Absorbed $17.6B of Cancellations** — [Source]() — Published 2026-08-28 Global comparison dataset. China captured 55% of announced clean manufacturing investment. Methodology note in E2 entry below. - **E2 Clean Economy Works June 2026: $35.4B Cancelled vs. $25.5B Announced Since January 2025** — [Source]() — Published 2026-08-28 Different methodology from CIM and Atlas on what counts as cancelled vs. delayed vs. restructured. Note denominator gaps before citing. - **Atlas Q1 2026 Facility Detail: VinFast Workforce Down 81%, SK On Georgia Layoffs, Ultium ESS Pivot Confirmed** — [Source]() — Published 2026-08-28 Facility-level workforce and status signals. Useful for registry cross-reference on under-construction sites where company disclosures lag. ## Other sections in Issue 12 - [Signal]() - [China]() - [Korea]() - [Defense]() - [Qualification]() ## More - [Publication guide]() - [Issue archive]()