--- title: "Signal" canonical: "https://anchor.is/the-hysteresis/issue/13/signal" publication: "The Hysteresis" publisher: "The Hysteresis" language: "en-US" guide: "https://anchor.is/the-hysteresis/llms.txt" permalink: "https://anchor.is/the-hysteresis/issue/13/signal" issue: 13 section: "signal" description: "The numbers, their velocity, and what moves next" authors: ["Elise Huan-Cartwright"] published: 2026-09-07 updated: 2026-09-04 articles: 17 --- # The Hysteresis > The Hysteresis exists to give a small cross-functional team — strategy, investment, and procurement — a shared weekly instrument for reading the battery supply chain earlier than consensus. Success means the team consistently identifies inflection points in cell pricing, supplier health, and policy enforcement weeks or months before they surface in earnings calls, annual surveys, or trade press. The commercial mechanism is internal-first: the publication proves itself as a decision tool inside the organization, then extends to paid subscribers and a practitioner community as upside. Revenue follows utility — if the team makes better-timed procurement calls and competitive assessments because of what they read here, the publication earned its place. [Read on the website]() ## Issue 13 — Signal The numbers, their velocity, and what moves next ### Current Readings Dashboard Two basis breaks landed on September 1. China's 2% battery consumption tax changed what the printed cell price includes, and Fastmarkets tightened its CIF CJK carbonate specification enough to interrupt the series. Both disrupt week-over-week comparability on tracked signals at the same time lithium carbonate reversed intra-week and SMM retired its China EV-pack benchmarks. The grid below shows what each signal reads, where it comes from, and whether it can be compared to prior weeks on a stable basis. Three cards report flat readings. Three are not observable. Two face basis breaks. One pair of assessors agrees on the level and disagrees on direction. - **Same Level, Opposite Direction on BESS Cells** — [Source]() — Published 2026-09-04 Tag: BESS Cells InfoLink and SMM both print CNY 0.365/Wh for large-format LFP ESS cells. InfoLink shows +0.7% WoW for a second week; SMM shows 0%. China's 2% battery consumption tax took effect September 1. Neither assessor clarifies whether the printed level is pre- or post-tax. Conditionally not comparable to prior weeks. - **China EV Cells Flat Across All Formats** — [Source]() — Published 2026-09-04 Tag: EV Cells SMM September 4: 100 Ah prismatic LFP at $0.0528/Wh, 174 Ah at $0.0531/Wh, 8-series NMC at $0.0950/Wh. All 0% WoW. The firming InfoLink reports in BESS cells has not crossed into EV. Flat, comparable. - **Lithium Carbonate Rose Then Reversed Within Week** — [Source]() — Published 2026-09-04 Tag: Lithium Carbonate InfoLink Tuesday: CNY 152,000/MT, +1.7% WoW. SMM Friday: CNY 152,000/MT, down 2.56% day-over-day. LC2701 futures pulled back from CNY 162,900 toward CNY 150,000. SMM projects September supply up ~11% MoM as maintenance ends. The two prints captured different legs of one intra-week move. - **China BESS System Prices Flat Since April** — [Source]() — Published 2026-09-04 Tag: System Prices InfoLink's 2-hour DC-side liquid-cooled system: CNY 0.49/Wh average, flat WoW and unchanged since the post-April plateau. Cell-layer movement has not passed through PCS, BMS, thermal, and balance-of-system costs. Flat, comparable. - **Fastmarkets CIF CJK Spread Breaks on Methodology** — [Source]() — Published 2026-09-04 Tag: Fastmarkets Spread Fastmarkets changed its battery-grade carbonate CIF CJK specification September 1: minimum lot raised to 18 tonnes, payment limited to LC-at-sight, big-bag shelf life capped at nine months. No current free public print located. The SMM-to-Fastmarkets spread cannot be calculated this week. Series break. - **China EV Pack Series Ended August 28** — [Source]() — Published 2026-09-04 Tag: EV Pack SMM's 18.3 kWh and 51.9 kWh prismatic LFP EV-pack series stopped updating August 28 at $0.0820/Wh and $0.0859/Wh. No replacement series located. BNEF's December 2025 benchmark ($99/kWh BEV packs) remains the only calibration anchor, now lagging 9+ months. Series break. - **Illinois Clears 600 MW at Partial Fill** — [Source]() — Published 2026-09-04 Tag: US Buyers Illinois approved 600 MW standalone storage against a 1,038 MW target: 57.8% fill rate. Average winning strike: $110.52/MWh under 20-year Indexed Storage Credit contracts. MISO over-subscribed by 70 MW; ComEd's PJM territory filled only 80 of 588 MW. The strike is a revenue-settlement reference, not hardware $/kWh. Appalachian Power's 800 MW RFP closes September 30; no bids yet public. - **Korean Cell ASP Still Not Publicly Derivable** — [Source]() — Published 2026-09-04 Tag: Korean ASP LGES, Samsung SDI, and SK On reported Q2 battery-segment improvement, but revenue gains mix volume, product shifts, AMPC credits, tariff refunds, and one-time compensation. None published a standalone cell ASP or enough application-level volume to back one out. Not observable. - **Defense Cylindrical Cell Price Still Not Observable** — [Source]() — Published 2026-09-04 Tag: Defense Cells DIBC's BES-26-01 solicitation for domestic 18650/21700 production remains labeled "Closed," with no award announced. No cell price, awardee, or committed purchase floor disclosed. SAM.gov and USAspending checks returned no drone, UAV, UUV, or 6T clearing price. Not observable. ### Weekly Velocity Synthesis - [Two Assessors Agree on the Level; They Disagree on Whether It Moved]() — By [Elise Huan-Cartwright]() · Published 2026-09-04 · Format: The Velocity Synthesis InfoLink and SMM both assessed 314 Ah LFP ESS cells at CNY 0.365/Wh this week — InfoLink called it +0.7% WoW, SMM called it flat. The disagreement traces to September 1, when a 2% consumption tax on lithium-ion cells took effect alongside a revised Fastmarkets CIF CJK specification and the termination of SMM's China pack benchmarks. First post-tax cell assessments mix transactions priced under both regimes in proportions neither assessor discloses, so the level is usable and the weekly rate of change is not. Lithium carbonate rose on the weekly print and reversed on the daily. The domestic-versus-export comparison that would isolate tax pass-through is identifiable but not yet executable. ### US Contract-Economics Signal - [Fluence's Penalty Exposure Nearly Doubled in One Quarter]() — By [Elise Huan-Cartwright]() · Published 2026-09-04 Fluence's [June 10-Q](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1868941/000186894126000029/flnc-20260630.htm) (filed August 5) shows battery-cost pressure surfacing in a US-facing integrator's financials even as Chinese cell spot assessments held flat through Q2. Gross margin fell from 14.8% to 5.1% YoY in Q3 FY2026, attributed partly to "increases in battery prices" on certain projects, bundled with deployment overruns and customer liquidated damages. The filing doesn't isolate battery costs from the other two drivers. ### Source Audit Trail - **InfoLink: China ESS Cell Prices Edge Up 0.7% as Consumption Tax Hits New Orders** — [Source]() — Published 2026-09-04 First post-September 1 spot assessment; 280/314 Ah LFP cell firming and tax pass-through confirmation in contracts. - **SMM: Copper Foil Tightness Constrains September Cell Production, Prices Hold Firm** — [Source]() — Published 2026-09-04 Sources the supply-side constraint on September ESS cell output growth (+4% MoM) and price firmness. - **SMM: Lithium Carbonate Retreats After Midweek Spike, Ternary Orders Cut Sharply** — [Source]() — Published 2026-09-04 Carbonate futures pullback toward CNY 150K/MT; ternary cathode order cuts on weak EV demand. - **Fastmarkets Tightens CIF CJK Lithium Carbonate Specs Effective September 1** — [Source]() — Published 2026-09-04 New 18-tonne minimum lot and quality standard create a basis break in the seaborne carbonate benchmark. - **Illinois Awards 600 MW Storage at $110.52/MWh Strike, Falls 438 MW Short of Target** — [Source]() — Published 2026-09-04 IPA procurement results: PJM zone cleared only 80 of 588 MW targeted. Stakeholder review forthcoming. - **Fluence 10-Q: Battery Price Increases Hit Margins, $30M Supplier Loan Disclosed** — [Source]() — Published 2026-09-04 SEC filing sourcing gross margin collapse (5.1% vs. 14.8% YoY) attributed to rising battery costs. ## Other sections in Issue 13 - [China]() - [Korea]() - [The Log]() - [Defense]() - [Qualification]() ## More - [Publication guide]() - [Issue archive]()