--- title: "Korea" canonical: "https://anchor.is/the-hysteresis/issue/2/korea" publication: "The Hysteresis" publisher: "The Hysteresis" language: "en-US" guide: "https://anchor.is/the-hysteresis/llms.txt" permalink: "https://anchor.is/the-hysteresis/issue/2/korea" issue: 2 section: "korea" description: "LG, Samsung, SK — beyond the headlines" authors: ["Ronan Adike"] published: 2026-06-09 updated: 2026-06-09 articles: 13 --- # The Hysteresis > The Hysteresis exists to give a small cross-functional team — strategy, investment, and procurement — a shared weekly instrument for reading the battery supply chain earlier than consensus. Success means the team consistently identifies inflection points in cell pricing, supplier health, and policy enforcement weeks or months before they surface in earnings calls, annual surveys, or trade press. The commercial mechanism is internal-first: the publication proves itself as a decision tool inside the organization, then extends to paid subscribers and a practitioner community as upside. Revenue follows utility — if the team makes better-timed procurement calls and competitive assessments because of what they read here, the publication earned its place. [Read on the website]() ## Issue 2 — Korea LG, Samsung, SK — beyond the headlines ### Cathode Supply Map Korean makers supply the bulk of FEOC-compliant ESS cell capacity in the US on an announced basis. All three are ramping or converting American lines for LFP production. None has publicly named a PFE-compliant cathode active material supplier for current output. Zero for three. That provenance gap collides with a regulatory calendar: Treasury's final safe harbor tables are due December 31, 2026, and the "effective control" definition that will determine which supply chains qualify hasn't been written. Korean makers are building production against a compliance framework that doesn't exist in final form. Six cards below. Cards 1 through 4 map the cathode and compliance layer. Cards 5 and 6 provide financial and volume context. Status and data points, not analysis. - **LG Running LFP at Two Plants, CAM Undisclosed** — [Source]() — Published 2026-06-08 Tag: LG Cathode Holland, Michigan: LFP ESS production active since May 2025, targeting 17 GWh via retooled EV lines. Windsor (NextStar): ESS-only, over 1M cells since November 2025, 49.5 GWh nameplate. Cathode active material supplier: unnamed at both sites. PFE compliance posture: no public disclosure of methodology or provenance. - **Samsung SDI's LFP Cathode Gap Spans Two Layers** — [Source]() — Published 2026-06-08 Tag: Samsung Cathode StarPlus converting three NCA EV lines to LFP ESS, mass production targeting Q4 2026. L&F cathode deal signed (KRW 1.6T) but supply starts 2027. Interim source: unnamed. Precursor layer: 7.5% Pino stake, but CNGR entities retain ~45% (Zoomwe HK 31.37%, CNGR HK 13.58%). Management flagged PFE compliance as a challenge on the Q1 2026 call. - **SK On ESS: Korean Tender Win, No US Timeline** — [Source]() — Published 2026-06-08 Tag: SK On Won 284 MW (50.3%) of Korean government ESS tender with LFP pouch cells. No US LFP mass production timeline disclosed. No cathode supplier named for any ESS application. Georgia plant SOP reportedly October 2026, cathode supply covered only by a non-binding L&F MOU. Least defined ESS posture of the three. - **PFE Safe Harbor Tables Still Missing at Midyear** — [Source]() — Published 2026-06-08 Tag: PFE Rules IRS Notice 2026-15 interim MACR guidance in effect since February 2026. Final safe harbor tables due December 31, 2026. "Effective control" definition for Specified Foreign Entities remains unwritten. Battery cells absent from interim tables entirely. Taxpayers operating under reliance period until proposed regulations issue. - **All Three Korean Makers Lost Money in Q1** — [Source]() — Published 2026-06-08 Tag: Q1 Earnings LG Energy Solution: KRW 6.6T revenue, KRW -207.8B operating loss. Strip the disclosed KRW 189.8B in North American incentives and the underlying loss is KRW -397.6B. Samsung SDI: KRW 3.58T revenue, KRW -155.6B loss, AMPC not broken out. SK On: KRW 1.79T revenue, KRW -349.2B loss, AMPC not disclosed. Source: company earnings releases, April–May 2026. - **Korean Combined EV Battery Share Fell to 15.6%** — [Source]() — Published 2026-06-08 Tag: EV Volume Q1 2026 global EV installations per SNE Research: LG 23.7 GWh (+6.6% YoY), Samsung SDI 5.3 GWh (-27.7% YoY), SK On 9.0 GWh (-10.4% YoY). Combined share down 2.1pp YoY to 15.6%. SK On decline partly structural: F-150 Lightning discontinued, VW ID.4 US production ended. Source: SNE Research via Electrive, May 6, 2026. ### Samsung SDI Decomposition - [Samsung SDI Q1 2026 — The Recovery That Can't Name Its Cathode Supplier]() — By [Ronan Adike]() · Published 2026-06-08 · Format: The Earnings Decomposition Samsung SDI's Q1 2026 operating loss narrowed to KRW 155.6B, beating consensus by ~KRW 120B — three consecutive quarters of improvement since the Q3 2025 trough. But management cited "increased AMPC benefits" without disclosing a figure, and revenue fell 7.3% QoQ. Strip the incentive and the organic business hasn't moved. Every forward projection — H2 2026 profitability, the >KRW 2T ESS order, the StarPlus LFP ramp — traces back to a cathode supply chain whose PFE compliance depends on a regulatory definition Treasury hasn't written. LFP production starts October 2026. L&F cathode supply starts 2027. The interim source is undisclosed. ### LG's Parallel Opacity - [LG Energy Solution Is Collecting 45X on ESS Cells Without Naming a Cathode Supplier]() — Published 2026-06-08 Holland and Windsor are both producing LFP ESS cells. Neither has a publicly disclosed cathode active material supplier. Media tours of Holland described manufacturing equipment in detail but never named the CAM source. LG's IR materials are silent. The one identified upstream node, Jae Se New Energy, is a Longbai-affiliated entity currently restructuring ownership to push Chinese equity below 25% (The Elec, April 7, 2026). LG has not acknowledged the relationship. ### Source Materials - **Samsung SDI's LFP Supply Chain Runs Through CNGR at Every Node** — [Source]() — Published 2026-06-08 Maps CNGR's ownership stakes in Pino and CNP New Materials, establishing the Chinese-entity exposure at the core of Samsung SDI's precursor network. - **Samsung SDI and L&F Lock In $1.2B LFP Cathode Deal — Starting 2027** — [Source]() — Published 2026-06-08 Confirms L&F cathode deliveries begin 2027, which means StarPlus LFP production through late 2026 depends on an undisclosed interim supplier. - **The MACR Formula That Will Test Korean Cathode Compliance Claims** — [Source]() — Published 2026-06-08 Lays out the cost-ratio mechanics IRS will use to determine PFE material assistance, the regulatory question on which Korean 45X eligibility structurally depends. - **Samsung SDI Posts Sharpest Volume Decline Among Global Top 10 in Q1 2026** — [Source]() — Published 2026-06-08 SNE Research data showing Samsung SDI's 27.7% YoY installation decline and the Korean trio's combined share falling to 15.6% of a market that grew 9.1%. - **All Three Korean Makers Below 50% Utilization, KRW 3.2 Trillion in Combined Losses Ex-Credits** — [Source]() — Published 2026-06-08 Sets the 2025 baseline for utilization and pre-credit profitability across LG, Samsung SDI, and SK On, against which Q1 2026 trajectory should be measured. ## Other sections in Issue 2 - [Signal]() - [China]() - [The Log]() - [Defense]() - [Qualification]() ## More - [Publication guide]() - [Issue archive]()