--- title: "China" canonical: "https://anchor.is/the-hysteresis/issue/3/china" publication: "The Hysteresis" publisher: "The Hysteresis" language: "en-US" guide: "https://anchor.is/the-hysteresis/llms.txt" permalink: "https://anchor.is/the-hysteresis/issue/3/china" issue: 3 section: "china" description: "CATL, BYD, and the market that sets the floor" authors: ["Elise Huan-Cartwright"] published: 2026-06-29 updated: 2026-06-27 articles: 15 --- # The Hysteresis > The Hysteresis exists to give a small cross-functional team — strategy, investment, and procurement — a shared weekly instrument for reading the battery supply chain earlier than consensus. Success means the team consistently identifies inflection points in cell pricing, supplier health, and policy enforcement weeks or months before they surface in earnings calls, annual surveys, or trade press. The commercial mechanism is internal-first: the publication proves itself as a decision tool inside the organization, then extends to paid subscribers and a practitioner community as upside. Revenue follows utility — if the team makes better-timed procurement calls and competitive assessments because of what they read here, the publication earned its place. [Read on the website]() ## Issue 3 — China CATL, BYD, and the market that sets the floor ### The Split Signal - [Which China floor]() — By [Elise Huan-Cartwright]() · Published 2026-06-27 BNEF's [December 2025 survey](https://about.bnef.com/insights/clean-transport/new-record-lows-for-battery-prices/) puts China average packs at $84/kWh, stationary storage packs at $70/kWh, lowest observed LFP storage cells at $36/kWh. InfoLink's spot series shows [314 Ah LFP storage cells](https://www.ess-news.com/2026/04/22/chinas-314-ah-storage-cell-prices-climb-more-than-20-in-six-months/) averaging RMB 0.368/Wh (~$51/kWh) as of May 6, with a range of RMB 0.340–0.395/Wh. That is 22% above October 2025 levels and roughly 42% above the 2025 trough of RMB 0.26/Wh. Both numbers are real. They measure different objects at different points in the cost cycle: BNEF captures a full-year volume-weighted average, InfoLink a weekly spot read on a specific cell format from Chinese manufacturers. The error is treating both as "the China floor." The floor that matters to a procurement decision depends on what you're buying (ESS cell vs. EV-qualified pack), where it's going (EXW Changsha vs. CIF Rotterdam), and whether it clears qualification screens. One of those screens, [GB38031-2025](https://eepower.com/tech-insights/no-fire-no-explosion-safety-standards-for-ev-batteries/), takes effect for new vehicle type approvals in four days. As of the most recent public record, CATL alone has confirmed compliance. ### The Ladder of Floors - [Four Floors, Not One]() — By [Elise Huan-Cartwright]() · Published 2026-06-26 · Format: The Structural Map SMM's June 26 LFP assessments: 174Ah prismatic at RMB 0.392/Wh, up 7.1% in four weeks. ESS-format 314Ah at RMB 0.365/Wh. Generic Tier-2/3 EXW still below RMB 0.35/Wh. US-landed estimates above $75/kWh. Four numbers, four structurally distinct price floors, diverging on known schedules. GB38031-2025 takes effect in five days. This piece maps the interlocking forces that produce each floor and assesses which separations hold. ### ESS Cell Tightness - [Chinese ESS Cell Prices Rebounded 25%. Eight Weeks Later, They Haven't Given It Back.]() — By [Elise Huan-Cartwright]() · Published 2026-06-27 · Format: ESS Cell Tightness Chinese 314 Ah LFP storage cells assessed at RMB 0.375/Wh in late June — roughly $55/kWh — are 25% above where they traded in October 2025. The rebound itself is known. The plateau is the harder signal to dismiss: eight weeks at the new level, across cells and complete systems, without reversal. Squeezes retrace. This hasn't. Behind it, a new capacity-payment mechanism and a qualification funnel far narrower than aggregate overcapacity implies are reinforcing each other in ways that may not unwind when input costs stabilize. ### Floor Tracker The annual benchmark still reads decline. The spot market disagrees. BNEF's December 2025 survey captured $84/kWh China pack prices, down 8% YoY. By April, InfoLink had 314 Ah LFP cells at CNY 0.365/Wh, up 22% from October lows. Lithium carbonate surged past CNY 200,000/mt in May before pulling back 16%. The pass-through into cell pricing is partial, uneven, and not yet visible in the lagging benchmarks most teams reference. Profitability within the leader tier is splitting sharply: CATL's net profit up 42%, BYD's down 19% for full-year 2025 and collapsing 55% in Q1 2026. Two structural forces arrive on fixed calendars. GB38031-2025 enforcement begins in four days. The export control suspension expires in 137. - **BNEF China Pack Price Down Eight Percent YoY** — [Source]() — Published 2026-06-27 Tag: Pack Price $84/kWh China average; stationary storage packs $70/kWh, down 45% YoY. Trajectory: ↓. This is a lagging annual benchmark (BNEF December 2025 survey), next update ~December 2026. The spot reversal since October 2025 is invisible here. - **ESS Cell Spot Up Twenty-Two Percent Since October** — [Source]() — Published 2026-06-27 Tag: Cell Spot 314 Ah LFP at CNY 0.365/Wh as of April 20, 2026, up from CNY 0.300/Wh late October 2025. May CEEC tender bids (CNY 0.34–0.394/Wh) confirm the range. Trajectory: ↑, running counter to annual benchmark. Source: InfoLink Consulting via ESS News. - **Lithium Carbonate Retreats Sixteen Percent From May Peak** — [Source]() — Published 2026-06-27 Tag: Lithium Carbonate ~CNY 163,000–169,000/mt for week of June 16–22, down ~16% from CNY 200,500 mid-May peak. Still 176% above year-ago levels. Trajectory: ↓ from peak, structurally elevated vs. 2025. Last direct SMM index: 134,406 yuan/mt (February 10, 2026). Current reads from secondary aggregators; flag the sourcing gap. - **CATL Profits Up Forty-Two Percent, BYD Down** — [Source]() — Published 2026-06-27 Tag: Leader Margins CATL 2025 net profit RMB 72.2B (+42% YoY); global power battery share 42.1% in Jan–Feb 2026. BYD 2025 profit RMB 32.6B (−19% YoY); Q1 2026 profit down 55%. Read this as divergence within the leader tier, not a sector-wide signal in either direction. Sources: CATL annual report via CnEVPost, AP, WSJ. - **No-Fire Battery Standard Takes Effect in Four Days** — [Source]() — Published 2026-06-27 Tag: Safety Standard GB38031-2025 enforced for new type approvals July 1, 2026. Existing approvals transition by July 2027. Mandates no fire, no explosion under tougher thermal diffusion, bottom impact, and post-fast-charge external short-circuit conditions. Structurally favors integrated producers with testing infrastructure. Trajectory: enforcement imminent. Source: State Council/MIIT. - **Battery Export Control Suspension Clock at 137 Days** — [Source]() — Published 2026-06-27 Tag: Export Controls MOFCOM Decision No. 70 suspended controls on cells ≥300 Wh/kg, production equipment, LFP cathode materials, and artificial graphite anodes through November 10, 2026. No public signal on extension or reinstatement. Military end-use prohibition remains active throughout. Source: MOFCOM/GAC. ### Source Shelf - **China's 314 Ah Storage Cell Prices Climb More Than 20% in Six Months** — [Source]() — Published 2026-06-27 InfoLink spot data showing ESS cell prices rebounding while EV cells stay flat — the floor splits. - **Lithium-Ion Battery Pack Prices Fall to $108 Per Kilowatt-Hour, Despite Rising Metal Prices** — [Source]() — Published 2026-06-27 BNEF's December 2025 deflation baseline ($84/kWh China, $70/kWh stationary) that H1 2026 ESS spot data now contradicts. - **China's Overcapacity: Will Its Battery Industry Consolidate?** — [Source]() — Published 2026-06-27 CRU maps 2 TWh+ capacity and 146% non-Tier-1 growth sustained by provincial politics — the structural floor's anatomy. - **China's New EV Battery Safety Standard to Take Effect in July 2026** — [Source]() — Published 2026-06-27 GB38031-2025's no-fire/no-explosion requirement now live, shrinking qualified EV cell supply and accelerating Tier-2 exits. - **China Sets 'Capacity Price' Floor for Grid-Scale Storage, Tying Payments to Coal Benchmarks** — [Source]() — Published 2026-06-27 NDRC/NEA capacity payments improve standalone storage economics, pulling ESS utilization tighter and repricing cells upward. - **China Suspends Export Controls on Lithium-Batteries and Artificial Graphite Anode Materials** — [Source]() — Published 2026-06-27 Suspension expires November 10, 2026. A hard deadline for Western anode sourcing that compounds floor divergence across geographies. ## Other sections in Issue 3 - [Signal]() - [Korea]() - [The Log]() - [Defense]() - [Qualification]() ## More - [Publication guide]() - [Issue archive]()