--- title: "The Log" canonical: "https://anchor.is/the-hysteresis/issue/3/the-log" publication: "The Hysteresis" publisher: "The Hysteresis" language: "en-US" guide: "https://anchor.is/the-hysteresis/llms.txt" permalink: "https://anchor.is/the-hysteresis/issue/3/the-log" issue: 3 section: "the-log" description: "What was announced, built, and cancelled" authors: ["Elise Huan-Cartwright","Ronan Adike"] published: 2026-06-29 updated: 2026-06-27 articles: 10 --- # The Hysteresis > The Hysteresis exists to give a small cross-functional team — strategy, investment, and procurement — a shared weekly instrument for reading the battery supply chain earlier than consensus. Success means the team consistently identifies inflection points in cell pricing, supplier health, and policy enforcement weeks or months before they surface in earnings calls, annual surveys, or trade press. The commercial mechanism is internal-first: the publication proves itself as a decision tool inside the organization, then extends to paid subscribers and a practitioner community as upside. Revenue follows utility — if the team makes better-timed procurement calls and competitive assessments because of what they read here, the publication earned its place. [Read on the website]() ## Issue 3 — The Log What was announced, built, and cancelled ### The Splintering Thesis - [Four Layers Between Announced and Available]() — By [Elise Huan-Cartwright]() · Published 2026-06-27 U.S. announced battery capacity has to be read through four conditional layers before it maps to anything a procurement team can act on. Physical: built and producing at scale. Qualified: receivable by a specific buyer at spec. Compliant: documented through FEOC/PFE review. Economically viable: survives without 45X. ### BlueOval SK Audit - [BlueOval SK Kentucky — Stated vs. Observed]() — By [Elise Huan-Cartwright]() · Published 2026-06-27 · Format: The Stated vs. Observed Audit DOE's public loan record for BlueOval SK Kentucky still describes a Ford/SK On JV producing NMC EV batteries with 7,500 jobs. Every element of that description has changed. Ford Energy Battery LLC now owns the site under a wholly different chemistry, application, and workforce plan. The full ledger below tracks five dimensions of divergence — entity, product, chemistry, ownership, headcount — sourced against federal filings and observable signals. Hiring is active but production is zero. No 45X claim, no named component suppliers, no FEOC compliance statement. For sourcing purposes, the facility exists but remains unassessable. ### ESS Conversion Wave - [US Battery Capacity Is Migrating From EV to ESS. The Aggregate Numbers Hide It.]() — By [Elise Huan-Cartwright]() · Published 2026-06-27 · Format: ESS Conversion Wave LGES and Samsung SDI have been converting US battery lines from EV to ESS since late 2025. Neither has closed a facility. The nameplate GWh still appears in aggregate capacity figures, but the chemistry, cell format, customer qualification, and credit eligibility profile underneath those numbers have changed. LGES is targeting 50+ GWh of North American ESS capacity by year-end 2026, drawn substantially from lines announced for GM and Stellantis EV programs. Samsung SDI has disclosed ~$2.3 billion in US ESS contracts and is converting StarPlus Energy lines in Kokomo alongside a $1 billion non-Chinese cathode deal. The total looks roughly stable. Underneath, the chemistry, customer base, and end market have shifted. ### Compliance Layer Status - [The Three Gates Between a Factory and a Credit]() — By [Ronan Adike]() · Published 2026-06-27 · Format: Compliance Layer Status For most domestic battery producers, the 45X production credit is the margin that makes U.S.-made cells competitive with imports. Eligibility runs through three distinct compliance gates, each testing something different, and a facility can clear one while failing another. No public registry records who has claimed the credit, at what rate, or with what substantiation. The PFE definition governing the most consequential gate is still unfinalized. Physical capacity and credit-eligible capacity are different numbers, and the gap between them is structurally unknowable from outside. ### Source Documents - **DOE LPO: BlueOval SK Project Page** — [Source]() — Published 2026-06-27 Closed-loan baseline: $9.63B across three plants. Reflects status as of 2024-12-16; does not incorporate the JV dissolution, Kentucky BESS conversion, or any loan restructuring terms Ford may have negotiated since. - **Ford, "Ford Follows Customers to Drive Profitable Growth; Reinvests in Trucks, Hybrids, Affordable EVs, Battery Storage," December 15, 2025** — [Source]() — Published 2026-06-27 Direct company disclosure of Kentucky plant conversion from EV cells to BESS and the JV disposition agreement with SK On. Establishes Ford's stated intent and a $2B retooling figure. Does not confirm delivered output, 45X eligibility for the converted facility, or final loan assumption terms. - **Samsung SDI, "SAMSUNG SDI Signs Mid- to Long-term LFP Cathode Material Supply Deal with L&F"** — [Source]() — Published 2026-06-27 Signals a PFE-compliant cathode sourcing route for StarPlus Energy's ESS lines via a non-Chinese supplier. A supply agreement is not proof of facility-level 45X compliance; no MACR data or component-tracing documentation is disclosed. - **LG Energy Solution, "LG Energy Solution Releases 2025 Financial Results," January 29, 2026** — [Source]() — Published 2026-06-27 Reports 140 GWh ESS backlog and North American expansion plans. Q4 2025 posted a loss even after booking KRW 332.8B in 45X production tax credits, exposing the degree of credit dependency in current unit economics. Useful for profitability context; does not break out facility-level credit claims or utilization rates. - **E2, "Clean Energy Companies Announce Nearly $3 Billion in New Projects, Cancel $4 Billion," June 18, 2026** — [Source]() — Published 2026-06-27 Aggregate cancellation tracking through May 2026, useful for trend-rate context. E2 methodology counts projects as cancelled or active but does not distinguish delays, downsizings, or application conversions. Facility-level status in the registry may differ from E2's aggregate classification. - **Canary Media, "Kore Power has a new plan after canceling $1.2B battery plant in Arizona," February 7, 2025** — [Source]() — Published 2026-06-27 Documents the canonical conditional-commitment failure: KORE Power received an $850M DOE LPO conditional approval that never reached loan closing. Site never broke ground; a contractor lien was filed. Illustrates why conditional commitments must not be treated as disbursed capital in capacity tracking. ## Other sections in Issue 3 - [Signal]() - [China]() - [Korea]() - [Defense]() - [Qualification]() ## More - [Publication guide]() - [Issue archive]()