--- title: "Signal" canonical: "https://anchor.is/the-hysteresis/issue/4/signal" publication: "The Hysteresis" publisher: "The Hysteresis" language: "en-US" guide: "https://anchor.is/the-hysteresis/llms.txt" permalink: "https://anchor.is/the-hysteresis/issue/4/signal" issue: 4 section: "signal" description: "The numbers, their velocity, and what moves next" authors: ["Elise Huan-Cartwright"] published: 2026-07-06 updated: 2026-07-04 articles: 12 --- # The Hysteresis > The Hysteresis exists to give a small cross-functional team — strategy, investment, and procurement — a shared weekly instrument for reading the battery supply chain earlier than consensus. Success means the team consistently identifies inflection points in cell pricing, supplier health, and policy enforcement weeks or months before they surface in earnings calls, annual surveys, or trade press. The commercial mechanism is internal-first: the publication proves itself as a decision tool inside the organization, then extends to paid subscribers and a practitioner community as upside. Revenue follows utility — if the team makes better-timed procurement calls and competitive assessments because of what they read here, the publication earned its place. [Read on the website]() ## Issue 4 — Signal The numbers, their velocity, and what moves next ### Price Phase Dashboard InfoLink published its July 1 assessments while the US cleared out for the Fourth. The readings confirm what the prior three weeks suggested: the Chinese storage cell repricing cycle that ran October through April has plateaued. Cells flat. Systems flat. The more interesting signal sits underneath. Lithium carbonate posted a marginal +0.6% WoW rebound after a -7.7% single-week drop in late June. InfoLink says upstream softness has not passed through to cell transaction prices. Whether it will depends on order backlogs and inventory positions that vary by maker, and the lag could be weeks or quarters. The gap between BNEF's annual benchmark and live weekly readings keeps widening. Anyone still modeling storage economics off the $70/kWh December 2025 figure is working from a snapshot that predates the repricing cycle entirely. EV packs offer nothing new to update. - **314 Ah LFP Storage Cell Flat at Plateau** — [Source]() — Published 2026-07-04 Tag: LFP Cell CNY 0.375/Wh average, range 0.345–0.405/Wh, flat WoW (InfoLink, July 1). The arc: CNY 0.300/Wh in late October 2025, CNY 0.365/Wh by April 20, now holding for a third consecutive week. The 280 Ah cell tracks nearly identically at CNY 0.378/Wh (ESS News relaying InfoLink for Oct–Apr trajectory; InfoLink direct for current). - **DC-Side ESS System Holds at CNY 0.50/Wh** — [Source]() — Published 2026-07-04 Tag: ESS System Two-hour DC-side liquid-cooled containerized ESS: CNY 0.50/Wh average, range 0.46–0.53/Wh, flat WoW (InfoLink, July 1). From CNY 0.41/Wh in October 2025 to CNY 0.49/Wh by April, now plateaued. China domestic system price. Not a US landed figure. - **Lithium Carbonate Bounces After Sharp June Drop** — [Source]() — Published 2026-07-04 Tag: Lithium Carbonate Battery-grade lithium carbonate: RMB 156,000/MT, +0.6% WoW (InfoLink, July 1). Read this against the prior week's -7.7% single-week plunge on June 24. A dead-cat bounce, not a reversal. InfoLink notes upstream softness has not passed through to cell prices, citing order execution lags, inventory positions, and delivery cycles. - **BNEF Storage Benchmark Diverges From Live Market** — [Source]() — Published 2026-07-04 Tag: BNEF Benchmark BNEF's December 2025 survey pegged stationary storage packs at $70/kWh, down 45% YoY. That was the lowest segment for the first time. Seven months on, InfoLink's live cell readings sit above the October 2025 levels from which that deflation was measured. The benchmark is a calibration point. It is not a current quote, and anyone using it as one is underpricing risk. - **EV Pack Pricing: No New Data This Cycle** — [Source]() — Published 2026-07-04 Tag: EV Packs No significant change. No new public EV-specific $/kWh assessment with a named methodology surfaced this cycle. Freshest anchored numbers remain BNEF's December 2025 survey: BEV packs $99/kWh, LFP $81/kWh, NMC $128/kWh. Seven months stale. Treat as calibration, not current. ### Velocity Synthesis - [Zero Velocity]() — By [Elise Huan-Cartwright]() · Published 2026-07-04 · Format: The Velocity Synthesis China BESS cell spot held flat for the eighth consecutive week — RMB 0.375/Wh average on 314 Ah LFP, with 280 Ah and system-level prices equally static. After six months of positive second derivative, the velocity of repricing has gone to zero. Meanwhile, lithium carbonate dropped 14% in six weeks without moving cell prices at all. The asymmetry is structural and persistent, and it reshapes the margin picture for Q3. If your procurement model still assumes continued deflation from 2025 lows, the public data has not supported that since April. ### Two Floors - [China Spot Doesn't Set the US Floor]() — By [Elise Huan-Cartwright]() · Published 2026-07-04 BNEF's December 2025 survey placed North American pack prices 44% above China's. IEA's Global EV Outlook 2026 measured 30%. Both are pack-level annual averages mixing applications, and both are purely geographic. They capture logistics and currency but not the compliance stack that determines whether a US BESS buyer can actually deploy the supply. ### Source Stack - **InfoLink ESS Spot Prices, July 1: Flat Across the Board** — [Source]() — Published 2026-07-04 Primary source for this week's China BESS cell and system spot data — 314 Ah, 280 Ah, DC-side systems, lithium carbonate, all as of July 1. - **314 Ah Cells Up 22% Since October: The Repricing Baseline** — [Source]() — Published 2026-07-04 ESS News documents the October-to-April repricing with InfoLink data; essential context for why today's flat readings sit on an elevated base. - **Tesla Q2 Storage: 13.5 GWh Deployed, +53% QoQ** — [Source]() — Published 2026-07-04 Demand-side volume only — no pricing disclosure yet; full financials due July 22. - **IEA Global EV Outlook 2026: Battery Pricing and Regional Spread Data** — [Source]() — Published 2026-07-04 2025 data showing China packs ~30% below North America and Korean cell makers dependent on US production credits for positive EBIT. - **BNEF December 2025: Storage Packs at $70/kWh** — [Source]() — Published 2026-07-04 Annual benchmark predates the H1 2026 BESS repricing cycle — useful as a historical floor, not a live procurement reference. ## Other sections in Issue 4 - [China]() - [Korea]() - [The Log]() - [Defense]() - [Qualification]() ## More - [Publication guide]() - [Issue archive]()