--- title: "The Log" canonical: "https://anchor.is/the-hysteresis/issue/7/the-log" publication: "The Hysteresis" publisher: "The Hysteresis" language: "en-US" guide: "https://anchor.is/the-hysteresis/llms.txt" permalink: "https://anchor.is/the-hysteresis/issue/7/the-log" issue: 7 section: "the-log" description: "What was announced, built, and cancelled" authors: ["Elise Huan-Cartwright"] published: 2026-07-27 updated: 2026-07-25 articles: 10 --- # The Hysteresis > The Hysteresis exists to give a small cross-functional team — strategy, investment, and procurement — a shared weekly instrument for reading the battery supply chain earlier than consensus. Success means the team consistently identifies inflection points in cell pricing, supplier health, and policy enforcement weeks or months before they surface in earnings calls, annual surveys, or trade press. The commercial mechanism is internal-first: the publication proves itself as a decision tool inside the organization, then extends to paid subscribers and a practitioner community as upside. Revenue follows utility — if the team makes better-timed procurement calls and competitive assessments because of what they read here, the publication earned its place. [Read on the website]() ## Issue 7 — The Log What was announced, built, and cancelled ### The Buyer's Problem - [Four US BESS facilities are quoting 2027–2028 delivery. None has shipped a cell.]() — By [Elise Huan-Cartwright]() · Published 2026-07-24 Four US facilities are quoting domestic BESS cell delivery for 2027–2028. None has publicly demonstrated shipped product, customer acceptance, or compliance documentation that would support a bankable offtake. [Ford Energy](https://fordauthority.com/2026/05/ford-energy-takes-full-control-of-kentucky-battery-plant/) quotes 20 GWh/year of LFP containerized systems from Glendale, Kentucky starting late 2027, with an [EDF offtake](https://www.energy-storage.news/ford-officially-launches-us-stationary-energy-storage-subsidiary-deliveries-to-begin-in-2027/) already signed. No trial production at Glendale has been disclosed. Ford's CATL technology license adds an unresolved PFE question the company addresses only as an "[expectation](https://www.energy-storage.news/ford-officially-launches-us-stationary-energy-storage-subsidiary-deliveries-to-begin-in-2027/)" of compliance. StarPlus Energy has the clearest operational milestone here: [NCA ESS production confirmed October 2025](https://www.samsungsdi.com/sdi-now/sdi-news/4802.html) via Samsung SDI financials. Its LFP conversion targets Q4 2026 per [company guidance](https://samsungsdi.com/sdi-now/sdi-news/4822.html), unconfirmed as achieved. LGES Lansing has a [$4.3B Tesla supply agreement](https://electrek.co/2026/03/17/tesla-lg-energy-solution-4-3-billion-lfp-battery-deal-megapack-confirmed/) and equipment on order for LFP prismatic cells, targeting H2 2027. No cell output. Panasonic Kansas is operational for EV 2170 cells but describes its data-center conversion as in "[beginning stages of planning](https://www.hppr.org/hppr-news/2026-06-18/panasonic-to-shift-some-kansas-production-lines-to-make-ai-data-center-batteries)," targeting mid-to-late 2028 at earliest, with no chemistry or format disclosed. ### Ford Kentucky Audit - [Ford Energy Glendale — Retooling Signals Are Real, Production Proof Is Not]() — By [Elise Huan-Cartwright]() · Published 2026-07-24 · Format: The Stated vs. Observed Audit Ford's Glendale site has a Korea Exchange-disclosed AGV equipment order, 15 active job postings referencing LFP BESS by name, and a framework agreement with EDF covering up to 20 GWh over five years. It also has a DOE project page still describing EV batteries for a JV entity that no longer exists, no cell-line equipment confirmation from any major supplier, and zero public 45X, MACR, or PFE disclosure. The retooling is traceable. The production is not. Anyone placing 20 GWh of domestic BESS cell supply from this facility into a 2027–2028 model should know precisely which evidence layers exist and which are absent. ### Conversion Landscape - [US BESS Conversion Registry: Seven Rungs, Five Facilities, One Operating Line]() — By [Elise Huan-Cartwright]() · Published 2026-07-24 · Format: Conversion Landscape One converted NCA ESS line at one facility, trade-reported at approximately 7 GWh. No BESS cells publicly evidenced as shipped to any buyer, anywhere in the domestic pipeline. This registry maps five US battery plants carrying BESS conversion language against seven proof rungs for contractable output. The $4.3 billion Tesla-LGES deal at Lansing, the strongest customer agreement in the set, has no disclosed cathode source. SK Commerce is still "pursuing" customers five months after a WARN filing. Input sourcing is the systematic gap. Where cathode supply is unresolved, stated timelines are aspirational until demonstrated otherwise. ### Compliance Filter - [Three Layers, Zero Public Proof: The Documentation Void Behind Converted BESS Compliance Claims]() — By [Elise Huan-Cartwright]() · Published 2026-07-24 · Format: Compliance Filter Converted U.S. battery facilities are selling BESS output as domestic, compliant, and credit-eligible. Those claims must clear three independent regulatory layers: 45X manufacturing credits, MACR/PFE substantiation under IRS Notice 2026-15, and FEOC restrictions. As of July 24, 2026, no converted facility has publicly demonstrated clearance through all three. The documentation architecture exists on paper. The proof trail visible to anyone outside the IRS is empty across every layer simultaneously. What follows is a layer-by-layer audit of what each requires, what can be verified, and where verification stops. ### Source Documents - **Ford Energy Kentucky Gigafactory Launch Page** — [Source]() — Published 2026-07-24 Ford's own BESS product claim, 5 GWh target, late-2027 delivery. No UL listing, warranty terms, or 45X disclosure present. - **Ford Motor Company Form 8-K, May 20, 2026** — [Source]() — Published 2026-07-24 Tier 1 SEC filing proving Kentucky asset transfer, $3.8B DOE note assumption at 4.814%, SK capital-contribution termination. - **Samsung SDI KRW 1.5 Trillion ESS Prismatic Battery Supply Deal (U.S.)** — [Source]() — Published 2026-07-24 Best public evidence of a contracted customer for StarPlus BESS cells. Notes phased NCA-to-LFP chemistry transition. - **IRS Notice 2026-15: Interim MACR/PFE Safe Harbors (45X, 45Y, 48E)** — [Source]() — Published 2026-07-24 Defines what "compliant" actually means for 45X eligibility. Safe-harbor tables due December 2026; until then, this governs. - **Panasonic to Shift Some Kansas Production Lines to Make AI Data Center Batteries** — [Source]() — Published 2026-07-24 De Soto line count (four of eight), headcount (1,800), and "beginning stages of planning" language not in investor materials. - **E2/BW Research: Clean Energy Cancellations Cost U.S. 470,000 Jobs (July 2026)** — [Source]() — Published 2026-07-24 Aggregate figures: 216 projects, $68.2B foregone, 9 GWh battery storage removed. Methodology may differ from facility-level classifications. ## Other sections in Issue 7 - [Signal]() - [China]() - [Korea]() - [Defense]() - [Qualification]() ## More - [Publication guide]() - [Issue archive]()