--- title: "Signal" canonical: "https://anchor.is/the-hysteresis/issue/8/signal" publication: "The Hysteresis" publisher: "The Hysteresis" language: "en-US" guide: "https://anchor.is/the-hysteresis/llms.txt" permalink: "https://anchor.is/the-hysteresis/issue/8/signal" issue: 8 section: "signal" description: "The numbers, their velocity, and what moves next" authors: ["Elise Huan-Cartwright"] published: 2026-08-03 updated: 2026-07-31 articles: 15 --- # The Hysteresis > The Hysteresis exists to give a small cross-functional team — strategy, investment, and procurement — a shared weekly instrument for reading the battery supply chain earlier than consensus. Success means the team consistently identifies inflection points in cell pricing, supplier health, and policy enforcement weeks or months before they surface in earnings calls, annual surveys, or trade press. The commercial mechanism is internal-first: the publication proves itself as a decision tool inside the organization, then extends to paid subscribers and a practitioner community as upside. Revenue follows utility — if the team makes better-timed procurement calls and competitive assessments because of what they read here, the publication earned its place. [Read on the website]() ## Issue 8 — Signal The numbers, their velocity, and what moves next ### Weekly Price Tape Two lithium assessors printed opposite directions this week. InfoLink reversed to +2.1% WoW on 29 July after a sharp prior-week drop. SMM, two days later, came in at -2.05%. Both sit in the RMB 140,000–148,000/MT band. The trajectory disagreement is unresolved. Below the input level, ESS and EV cells are splitting cleanly. InfoLink's large-format ESS assessment broke below RMB 0.370/Wh for the first time in the current series. SMM shows no confirmation, printing flat. EV cells moved the opposite way entirely over a wider window, firming 2–3% across formats. DC system pricing finally budged after a month of flat readings, though AC remains stuck. One aggressive tender award in Ningxia adds a data point on where suppliers are willing to push floors. - **InfoLink Lithium Reverses, Up 2.1% After Drop** — [Source]() — Published 2026-07-31 Tag: Lithium Carbonate Battery-grade carbonate at RMB 144,000/MT average on 29 July, +2.1% WoW (InfoLink). Prior week was -7.2%. Restocking around RMB 140,000 and stronger planned cell production schedules cited as support. Velocity: directional reversal inside two weeks, second derivative flipping positive. - **SMM Lithium Points Down, Contradicts InfoLink Direction** — [Source]() — Published 2026-07-31 Tag: Lithium Carbonate SMM battery-grade carbonate at RMB 143,000/MT on 31 July, -2.05% from RMB 145,500 on 24 July. CIF CJK at $18,580/ton. Two-day timing gap with InfoLink partially explains the opposing prints, but the trajectory disagreement is genuine. Velocity: still declining on the SMM tape. - **InfoLink ESS Cells Crack Below RMB 0.370 Floor** — [Source]() — Published 2026-07-31 Tag: ESS Cells 280Ah and 314Ah LFP cells at RMB 0.360/Wh on 29 July, -2.7% WoW (InfoLink). First print below RMB 0.370 in the current series. Attributed to selective concessions on large-customer Q4 orders, not broad repricing. Velocity: new floor, accelerating on the downside. - **SMM ESS Flat, No Confirmation of InfoLink Break** — [Source]() — Published 2026-07-31 Tag: ESS Divergence SMM 314Ah LFP at RMB 0.367/Wh on 31 July, flat. 280Ah at RMB 0.367, up RMB 0.002. That leaves a RMB 0.007 gap versus InfoLink's 0.360. Likely reflects different counterparty classes; concessions show up in key-account pricing before the broad tape moves. Velocity: stable on SMM, watch for lag confirmation. - **EV Cells Firm While ESS Slides Since July** — [Source]() — Published 2026-07-31 Tag: EV Cells SMM EV readings on 31 July: LFP prismatic $52.10–$52.40/kWh, +2.4–2.9% from 10 July. NMC ternary $81.50–$94.00/kWh, +2.2–2.5%. Positive across all formats over the 21-day window. Application-level demand dynamics are overriding shared input costs. Velocity: gradual firming, opposite direction to ESS. - **DC System Price Breaks Four Weeks of Flat** — [Source]() — Published 2026-07-31 Tag: System Pricing InfoLink DC 2-hour liquid-cooled system at RMB 0.490/Wh on 29 July, -1.0% WoW after four consecutive flat prints at RMB 0.500. AC systems unchanged across all durations. Cell-level concession pass-through running at roughly one-third pace. Velocity: first move in a month, shallow. - **Huaneng Four-Hour Tender Clears at Aggressive Low** — [Source]() — Published 2026-07-31 Tag: Tender Award Guangzhou Zhiguang Storage won the Huaneng Ningxia 80MW/320MWh four-hour award at RMB 0.497/Wh, roughly 15% below competing bids of RMB 0.560–0.590. Near the Huadian 12GWh framework floor. Scope and warranty terms undisclosed. Read this as supplier behavior, not market clearing. Velocity: floor-testing bid, isolated. ### Velocity Synthesis - [Cells Conceded RMB0.010/Wh; Carbonate Rose the Same Week]() — By [Elise Huan-Cartwright]() · Published 2026-07-31 · Format: The Velocity Synthesis InfoLink's 280/314Ah ESS-cell average came off the RMB0.370/Wh plateau this week, 2.7% WoW to RMB0.360. In the same assessment, the same house marked battery-grade carbonate up 2.1%. SMM's Friday tape did not follow, and EV prismatic printed the other way entirely. ### Quote Durability Check - [Only One Korean Q2 Profit Survives Without 45X]() — By [Elise Huan-Cartwright]() · Published 2026-07-31 All three Korean cell makers posted operating profit in Q2 2026. Ranked by headline: SK On KRW821.8B, Samsung SDI KRW203.8B, LGES KRW113.3B. Net of the US 45X production credit the ranking doesn't hold — and for one of the three it can't be recomputed at all. ### Primary Sources - **InfoLink and SMM Diverge on Late-July ESS Cell Pricing** — [Source]() — Published 2026-07-31 Two benchmark sources disagree on direction. Procurement teams pricing Q4 need to know which to weight. - **LGES Q2: Operating Profit Returns, but the Ex-Credit Bridge Stays Negative at KRW 128B** — [Source]() — Published 2026-07-31 ESS revenue quadrupled YoY. Inventory climbed KRW 1.1T. Strip out 45X and the loss persists. - **Samsung SDI Posts First Profit in Seven Quarters; Battery-Segment Ex-AMPC Bridge Still Undisclosed** — [Source]() — Published 2026-07-31 Consolidated ex-AMPC profit ~KRW 96B per Korean press. Segment-level detail remains a gap in English IR. - **SK On Reports KRW 822B Profit, but One-Offs and AMPC Make the Recurring Base Opaque** — [Source]() — Published 2026-07-31 BlueOval SK unwinding saves ~KRW 500B/year. Customer comp and AMPC magnitude still unquantified. - **FCC Blocks New Foreign-Produced Connected Inverters From US Market** — [Source]() — Published 2026-07-31 Previously authorized models unaffected. New BESS configurations now face authorization barrier or federal review. - **Korean Press Fills Samsung SDI's AMPC Disclosure Gap: KRW 107.7B in Q2** — [Source]() — Published 2026-07-31 Seoul Economic Daily reports the figure English IR omits. A recurring pattern across all three Korean makers. ## Other sections in Issue 8 - [China]() - [Korea]() - [The Log]() - [Defense]() - [Qualification]() ## More - [Publication guide]() - [Issue archive]()