--- title: "Signal" canonical: "https://anchor.is/the-hysteresis/issue/9/signal" publication: "The Hysteresis" publisher: "The Hysteresis" language: "en-US" guide: "https://anchor.is/the-hysteresis/llms.txt" permalink: "https://anchor.is/the-hysteresis/issue/9/signal" issue: 9 section: "signal" description: "The numbers, their velocity, and what moves next" authors: ["Ronan Adike"] published: 2026-08-10 updated: 2026-08-09 articles: 16 --- # The Hysteresis > The Hysteresis exists to give a small cross-functional team — strategy, investment, and procurement — a shared weekly instrument for reading the battery supply chain earlier than consensus. Success means the team consistently identifies inflection points in cell pricing, supplier health, and policy enforcement weeks or months before they surface in earnings calls, annual surveys, or trade press. The commercial mechanism is internal-first: the publication proves itself as a decision tool inside the organization, then extends to paid subscribers and a practitioner community as upside. Revenue follows utility — if the team makes better-timed procurement calls and competitive assessments because of what they read here, the publication earned its place. [Read on the website]() ## Issue 9 — Signal The numbers, their velocity, and what moves next ### Price Board China BESS cell prices stabilized this week after the prior week's selective concessions. Both InfoLink and SMM converge near CNY 0.360/Wh, though their methodologies and transaction populations differ enough that the proximity in level says less than it appears to. Lithium carbonate reads differently depending on which day you check. InfoLink's midweek assessment fell 2.8%; SMM's Friday print rose 1.08%. The two-day gap between assessment dates explains the divergence. EV cells ticked up fractionally across LFP and NMC, consistent in direction but within assessment noise. System-level BESS prices held flat on both assessors. Korean contract ASP and defense pricing remain unobservable in public data this week. - **InfoLink BESS Cell Flat After Prior Drop** — [Source]() — Published 2026-08-08 Tag: BESS Cell 280 Ah and 314 Ah LFP ESS cells averaged CNY 0.360/Wh on August 5, unchanged WoW. Prior week's −2.7% decline reflected selective concessions on Q4 orders from major customers rather than broad repricing. Rate of decline: −2.7% to 0%. - **SMM 314 Ah Index Down Fractionally This Week** — [Source]() — Published 2026-08-08 Tag: BESS Cell SMM's 314 Ah LFP ESS-cell index: CNY 0.3605/Wh on August 7, −0.39% WoW. Covers 100–500 MWh spot transactions. Level sits within CNY 0.0005/Wh of InfoLink's CNY 0.360, but different methodology and transaction population. The convergence in level does not constitute cross-validation. - **InfoLink Lithium Carbonate Gave Back Prior Rebound** — [Source]() — Published 2026-08-08 Tag: Lithium Carbonate Battery-grade lithium carbonate averaged CNY 140,000/MT on August 5, −2.8% WoW after the prior week's +2.1% bounce. InfoLink revised its H2 midpoint lower, projecting CNY 130,000–150,000/MT. SC6 spodumene CIF China at $2,020/MT, −1.7% WoW. - **SMM Lithium Rose on a Different Clock** — [Source]() — Published 2026-08-08 Tag: Lithium Carbonate SMM's August 7 domestic delivered index: CNY 142,926/MT, +1.08% daily. Two-day gap from InfoLink's August 5 print means the sources show opposite directions this week. This is a timing difference. The two prints should not be reconciled into a single weekly move. - **China BESS System Prices Unchanged This Week** — [Source]() — Published 2026-08-08 Tag: System Price InfoLink's 2-hour DC-side liquid-cooled system averaged CNY 0.49/Wh on August 5, flat WoW. SMM's 5 MWh stack also flat at CNY 0.434/Wh. BOS costs are the binding constraint now: PCS, thermal management, and commissioning margins are holding system prices even as cell costs stabilize. - **SMM China EV Cell Prints Ticked Up** — [Source]() — Published 2026-08-08 Tag: EV Cell August 7 SMM prints: 100 Ah prismatic LFP at CNY 0.3995/Wh (+0.25% WoW); 5-series NMC at CNY 0.630/Wh (+0.24%); 6-series NMC at CNY 0.6245/Wh (+0.16%). All three sub-0.3%, within assessment noise, but directionally consistent upward across chemistries. - **Korean Cell ASP: No Observable Weekly Change** — [Source]() — Published 2026-08-08 Tag: Korean ASP Q2 earnings from LGES, Samsung SDI, and SK On mix corporate-level scope with 45X/AMPC subsidies, tariff refunds, and customer compensation. None disclosed a comparable $/kWh cell ASP. These reports supply utilization and mix data, not a trackable price series. No significant change. - **Defense Cell Pricing Still Absent From Public Data** — [Source]() — Published 2026-08-08 Tag: Defense Pricing DIBC's BES-26-01 seeks domestic cylindrical-cell capacity but guarantees no offtake volume. Packet Digital's $9.8M award bundles equipment, materials, and pilot production with no MWh denominator. QPL-32565 updated August 6 with no qualified products listed. No $/kWh derivable. No significant change. ### Velocity Synthesis - [BESS Spot Decline Stopped; the Range Matters More Than the Midpoint]() — By [Ronan Adike]() · Published 2026-08-08 · Format: The Velocity Synthesis The BESS spot decline didn't decelerate this week, it stopped: −2.7% WoW to 0% in a single week. InfoLink's range held at CNY 0.330–0.390/Wh, but CNESA's H1 data shows framework buyers took 60.1% of awarded capacity and no public source discloses what they paid, which means the midpoint describes the minority of volume. Section 122's 10% surcharge expired July 24 with no extension enacted, dropping the confirmed US tariff stack on Chinese LFP cells to 28.4%. Lithium's weekly move fell below cell-price assessment resolution. ### Transmission Threshold - [Sizing the Lithium-to-Cell Impulse]() — By [Ronan Adike]() · Published 2026-08-08 Argonne's BatPaC cost model ([ANL/CSE-24/1](https://publications.anl.gov/anlpubs/2024/01/187177.pdf), Table 36) puts contained lithium in an LFP pack at 0.09 kg/kWh. This is an automotive pack figure, not a measured 314 Ah ESS cell bill of materials, but it is the best publicly sourced primary number available. Convert to lithium carbonate equivalent via the stoichiometric ratio (x5.32) and the sensitivity coefficient is ~0.48 kg LCE per kWh. ### Source Trail - **LFP ESS Cell Spot: InfoLink and SMM Both Read ~CNY 0.36/Wh, Flat WoW; GFEX Curve Prices Lithium Easing** — [Source]() — Published 2026-08-08 314 Ah cell prices stable. GFEX Sep lithium at CNY 140k/MT below spot suggests near-term input cost relief. - **CNESA H1 Data: China ESS System Bid Prices Up 8–21% YoY While Cell Prices Fell — Margin Shifted to Integration** — [Source]() — Published 2026-08-08 2h system bids averaged CNY 602/kWh (+8.8% YoY). EPC volumes doubled. Cell cost savings captured by integrators. - **Korean Q2 Earnings: All Three Cell Makers Report Positive OP — IRA Credits and Tariff Refunds Did Most of the Work** — [Source]() — Published 2026-08-08 LGES ~negative ex-AMPC. Samsung SDI near breakeven ex-refunds. SK On's KRW 822B OP clouded by reclassifications. - **LGES Q2: ESS Revenue Up 4.6x YoY, Capex Halved — Reported 1.5% OP Margin Disappears Without KRW 241B Production Incentive** — [Source]() — Published 2026-08-08 ESS growth is real. Profitability without IRA credits is not. Capex cuts signal slowing capacity build timeline. - **Samsung SDI Q2: First Positive Quarter in Seven — KRW 203.8B OP Driven by AMPC and Tariff Refunds** — [Source]() — Published 2026-08-08 Management disclosed underlying result near breakeven. Headline profit is a policy artifact, not an operating inflection. - **SK On Q2: KRW 822B OP After IRA Credit Reclassification Into Revenue — Converting EV Lines to ESS** — [Source]() — Published 2026-08-08 Best reported quarter, but accounting change and unquantified customer compensation make YoY comparison unreliable. ## Other sections in Issue 9 - [China]() - [Korea]() - [The Log]() - [Defense]() - [Qualification]() ## More - [Publication guide]() - [Issue archive]()