The Denominator's Future — What Must Become True Before Non-Producing Facilities Enter Addressable Supply

Forty-two facility-output records in the United States carry a public capacity commitment for lithium-ion cells, cathode active material, anode material, or separators and are not currently shipping commercial product. These are the denominator of domestic battery supply: everything announced but not yet contractable.

The organizing principle here is evidence proximity, meaning the number and nature of observable gates between a facility's current verified status and its first contribution to addressable supply. Those gates run in sequence and are facility-specific: construction completion, equipment installation, commissioning, customer qualification, accepted recurring output, compliance verification. A plant with commissioned equipment awaiting customer qualification is a different object from a plant that has not broken ground, whatever the two have announced about their start dates.

The NLR/NAATBatt supply-chain database dated 2026-03-31 provides the baseline, updated here with SEC filings, DOE records, state disclosures, and direct company announcements through 2026-08-08. "Material" means at least 1 GWh/year for cells, 10,000 tonnes/year for cathode or anode material, or 100 million square metres/year for separators, with exceptions for federally financed or specifically decision-relevant smaller projects.

Gate distribution

Assigning each record to the gate that best describes its most immediate public bottleneck:

Twenty of 42 records sit at financing or construction gates, meaning they are three or more sequential gates away from any contractable output. Nine have reached customer qualification or pre-commercial production.

The facilities closest to the line are predominantly cell plants backed by automotive OEMs or their JV partners. The facilities farthest away are disproportionately materials projects (cathode, anode, separator) and independent cell ventures whose financing has not closed. That gap between the two tiers is wide enough to surface as a compliance question when the cell plants file for §45X credits, which I take up below.

Pre-commercial output, closest to the line

Five facilities have produced pre-series or trial product. None has public evidence of accepted recurring commercial output.

Ford BlueOval Battery Park Michigan reported complete end-to-end pre-production LFP cells on 2026-06-17, covering mixing, coating, formation, aging, and inspection, with quality testing preceding commercial shipments. This is the closest any non-producing cell facility is to addressable supply. Remaining gates: customer acceptance, recurring qualified output, and public PFE/§45X substantiation. Watch for a disclosed first commercial shipment. Ford's 10-K acknowledges that incentives are subject to prohibited-foreign-entity criteria but does not disclose the analysis of the CATL licensing arrangement under effective-control rules.

HL-GA Battery in Bryan County, Georgia (~30 GWh nameplate, ~$4.3B) had begun battery processes by 2026-04 after a months-long immigration-enforcement disruption. No first accepted commercial shipment has been located. A named customer acceptance would change the assessment.

Our Next Energy in Van Buren Township, Michigan (20 GWh nameplate, $1.6B) describes producing Aries LFP cells and completing certifications, but its own materials distinguish the validation line from the planned gigafactory buildout, with customer deliveries pointed at 2027. The gate is disclosed installed gigafactory capacity plus customer acceptance separable from the validation line.

BMW Plant Woodruff reported pre-series 144 kWh iX5 packs with over 250 robots and 300 employees on 2026-07-27. The cell supplier was unnamed. Series-pack acceptance with a disclosed cell source would move this record.

Customer qualification as the principal gate

Four facilities sit here. This gate has the highest attrition rate in the pipeline, and the reasons are visible in the record.

NOVONIX Riverside in Chattanooga has installed and commissioned production equipment for Panasonic, but Panasonic qualification moved to H2 2027. Stellantis terminated its offtake, removing one of two named customers. Next event: Panasonic qualification acceptance and first accepted commercial shipment.

Redwood Materials Nevada claims initial CAM qualification activity and says phase-one copper-foil production has begun. Toyota has announced a procurement relationship for copper foil without disclosing volumes. No facility-specific accepted-tonnage disclosure exists for either product line. A named customer qualification with disclosed tonnes would change both records.

Syrah Vidalia in Louisiana has produced active anode material and disclosed an approximately $8M §45X refund, the strongest public evidence of credit receipt anywhere in this denominator. The public record does not establish final Tesla qualification or recurring accepted output at nameplate. A credit refund is evidence that the taxpayer claimed and received; it is not evidence that a customer accepted material. Final Tesla qualification is the remaining gate.

Westwater Kellyton in Alabama has a qualification line operating, but SK On terminated its procurement agreement on 2026-03-31, leaving both financing and a replacement customer unresolved. A binding replacement offtake would be the first signal of recovery.

Two named offtake agreements terminated at this gate within four months, at two different anode-material facilities, by two different cell makers. Qualification is where an offtake gets tested against real material and a real program requirement, and where the agreement either survives or does not. It is not administrative.

Equipment installed or commissioning underway

Seven records. The largest by nameplate is the StarPlus Energy Plant 1 LFP conversion in Kokomo (~33 GWh total plant nameplate). Samsung reaffirmed Q4 2026 LFP mass production; trade reporting places the first 273 Ah line in 2026-09 and broader equipment installation into H1 2027. The cathode source for any 2026 output remains undisclosed. Companion Korea reporting found an L&F cathode contract beginning in 2027 but no named source for the interim, a gap that bears on both production continuity and PFE compliance. Watch for demonstrated LFP cells with a disclosed CAM source.

LG Energy Solution Arizona retains a production-by-end-of-2026 plan for its 36 GWh 46-series EV-cell building but has not disclosed customer-qualification or accepted-shipment evidence. Either disclosure would advance the record.

In anode materials, Sila at Moses Lake says operations have started and IATF implementation is underway, though independent reporting in 2026-07 still described the plant as readying for production and no public first commercial shipment was located. A named first commercial shipment or customer-acceptance announcement is the observable event.

Group14's BAM-2, also at Moses Lake, was approximately 90% built when GeekWire reported furloughs in 2026-01. The company says it is finalizing construction and commissioning for production in 2026. Completed furnace commissioning is the next milestone.

Electrovaya in Jamestown, New York (~1 GWh, $50.8M EXIM financing) reports dry-room and assembly-line installation with commercial cell production described for early fiscal 2027. Integrated commissioning and a first commercial cell shipment are the gates.

In separators, Microporous at Piney Flats, Tennessee is installing its first full-scale coated wet-process PE separator line, with line commissioning and cell-customer qualification ahead. Celgard's Charlotte expansion had contemplated 2026 operations; its current commissioning status is unverified. A dated construction or equipment confirmation would resolve the record.

Standing buildings without commissioned routes

Four facilities have standing or near-complete buildings and no demonstrated route-specific commissioning.

Ford Energy Systems in Glendale, Kentucky (20 GWh LFP BESS plan) acquired sole control on 2026-05-20 and assumed a $3.8B DOE note. A certificate of occupancy, AGV order, and hiring support retooling, but no cell-line equipment confirmation or production evidence exists, a gap documented in issue #7. Cell-process equipment confirmation is the next observable event.

SK On Tennessee (~43 GWh original EV capacity) formed a standalone entity and projects mass production in 2028. Equipment or process commissioning evidence would advance the record.

StarPlus Plant 2 in Kokomo (~34 GWh) is under construction with a closed $7.54B DOE loan covering both plants, but Samsung's near-term disclosures concentrate on the Plant 1 LFP conversion. Construction completion and equipment-installation evidence specific to Plant 2 would be the signal.

LG Energy Solution Lansing (~50 GWh nameplate) has a $4.3B Tesla supply agreement for dedicated ESS LFP lines with deliveries during 2027–2030. No GWh allocation, equipment completion, or qualification evidence is public. Dedicated-line installation evidence is the gate.

Pre-construction and early construction

Sixteen records, and the weight of the pipeline. Seven are materials projects (cathode, anode, or conductive carbon), two are separator plants, and the remainder are cell or system facilities.

Variation inside this cluster is mostly financial. One project has a closed DOE loan (ENTEK). Two have DOE conditional commitments that have not closed (NOVONIX Lookout Valley, and ABTC at demonstration scale); a conditional commitment is not drawable capital. One has a nonbinding EXIM letter of interest (Anovion). One announced final financing and began construction in 2026-05 (Microporous Danville). The remaining eleven depend on private capital or financing arrangements that are incomplete or undisclosed.

Also in this cluster:

• 6K Energy Jackson, TN — 13,000 t/yr CAM, now targeting early 2028. Next: confirmed continuous construction and equipment installation.
• Birla Carbon Orangeburg County, SC — 25,000 t/yr, construction not begun on original schedule. Next: financing and notice to proceed.
• Graphite One Conneaut, OH — engineering and permitting stage. Next: final lease, financing, and construction notice.
• e-STORAGE Shelbyville, KY — 6 GWh BESS integration, 2026-12 target. Next: building and equipment completion.
• Forge Battery Morrisville, NC — expansion groundbreaking scheduled 2026-08-19. Next: groundbreaking and construction notice.
• Pomega Walterboro, SC — 3 GWh; parent Kontrolmatik filed restructuring 2026-05-15. Next: project-level financing and dated construction evidence.
• ABTC Tonopah Flats, NV — DOE grant reinstated 2026-06-02 through 2029-12-31, demonstration-scale. Next: construction and equipment evidence.

Paused, transferred, or without a restart path

Six records.

AESC Florence, SC (30 GWh, ~$1.6B): approximately 75% complete and idled, with Clayco seeking foreclosure of a $26.2M lien as of 2026-07. A post-lien resolution, contractor remobilization, or confirmed resumed work would change the assessment.

GM–Samsung Synergy Cells, New Carlisle, IN (27 GWh, ~$3.5B): GM confirmed on 2026-05-14 that construction would pause after completing the exterior, with no restart date. Formal restart authorization is the event.

LG Energy Solution Arizona ESS building (17 GWh LFP ESS): paused with no public restart path. Company or permit evidence of construction restart would move the record.

Microvast Clarksville, TN (up to 2 GWh cells plus separator): paused from Q2 2024 pending capital. Closed financing and resumed cell-line construction is the gate.

Apex 1 Hopkinsville, KY (~60% complete pCAM plant): ownership transferred to Turner-Kokosing on 2026-06-11 with no successor production scope disclosed, the divergence traced in issue #8. A successor declaration of product and construction plan would be the first signal.

AESC Bowling Green, KY (30 GWh, ~$2B): sources conflict on whether construction is active or paused. A dated site inspection or company disclosure resolving the conflict is what would change this record.

Converted lineages

Three facilities announced for EV cells have redirected output. They are excluded from the 42-record denominator because they have begun producing, but the originally announced EV capacity cannot be assumed to remain available, and the converted output's GWh, yield, customer acceptance, and compliance status are undisclosed.

L-H Battery in Jeffersonville, OH began ESS cell production for LG Energy Solution Vertech. Ultium Cells Spring Hill, TN announced converted LFP ESS production on 2026-07-07. Panasonic De Soto, KS is planning data-centre battery lines with mass production indicated for fiscal 2029. The conversion registry framework from issue #7 applies: operating-site status does not establish contractable converted supply.

The compliance gate

IRS Notice 2026-15 applies prohibited-foreign-entity material-assistance restrictions to eligible components sold in taxable years beginning after 2025-07-04. §45X credits, worth $35/kWh for cells and $10/kWh for modules, are filed on Form 7207 with the taxpayer's return. No facility-level eligibility registry exists.

Among the non-producing facilities in this denominator, none has published a complete facility-output PFE assessment, material-assistance cost ratio, supplier-certification file, or IRS eligibility determination. Four different kinds of evidence do exist, and they should not be conflated. Syrah has disclosed a §45X refund: credit received. LG Energy Solution reports production incentives at corporate level without facility allocation: corporate disclosure, not attributable to a site. 6K has marketed its material as "IRA compliant" without publishing a facility-level MACR calculation: general assertion. Ford acknowledges PFE criteria apply without disclosing the CATL licensing analysis: risk acknowledgment. "Undisclosed" is the accurate classification for all four, and it is distinct from "non-compliant," as explored in issue #7's compliance analysis.

Compliance recurs on every bill of materials rather than clearing once at commissioning. For a cell plant whose cathode or anode supply is meant to come from a domestic materials project still in pre-construction, the compliance gate is chained to another facility's construction gate. That is how the lag in the materials tier reaches cell-tier economics.

State incentive clocks

State and local incentive commitments put separate pressure on paused or delayed facilities. Michigan declared Gotion Big Rapids in default and sought repayment of $23.6M. South Carolina withdrew $111M associated with AESC's cancelled second building while preserving $135M in grants and $121M in bonds tied to the surviving first plant, which is now idled with a contractor lien. Kentucky extended Ford's job-creation deadlines from 2,500 by end-of-2026 to 2,000 by 2028 after the ownership transition. Michigan's SOAR report lists ONE's $200M approved grant with $70.2M disbursed, $117.6M of reported qualified investment, and zero verified qualified jobs, with clawback authority intact.

These are active monitoring relationships between states and facilities that have not met their commitments. They do not appear in GWh pipeline trackers. They constrain the decision space of the companies involved anyway.

What the distribution tells you

The facilities closest to addressable supply are predominantly large-format cell plants with OEM backing: Ford Michigan, HL-GA, StarPlus, LGES Arizona and Lansing. The facilities farthest away are disproportionately materials projects whose financing depends on conditional DOE commitments that have not closed (NOVONIX Lookout Valley), EXIM letters of interest that are nonbinding (Anovion), or private capital that has not materialized (Epsilon, Birla Carbon, Graphite One).

On direction: this evidence set is a single cutoff, not a time series. A formal trend claim would require applying the same denominator and category rules to at least one earlier registry date, and I have not done that. What the reporting period shows is not ambiguous, though. Several facilities have moved backward or sideways since their last public milestone: AESC Florence idled with a contractor lien, GM–Samsung paused, Microvast still paused, Stellantis and SK On terminating offtake at NOVONIX and Westwater, Apex 1 sold out of bankruptcy with no successor plan. The facilities that have advanced toward final gates are all OEM-backed cell plants, with Ford Michigan completing pre-production cells, HL-GA beginning battery processes, and StarPlus installing LFP equipment. The two groups are moving in opposite directions, and membership in each is closely predicted by whether an OEM balance sheet stands behind the project.

The materials tier is where the pipeline is thinnest and slowest. Of the anode-material facilities in this denominator, two are commissioning (Sila, Group14), three are in qualification, and two of those three have lost a named customer. Four have not begun construction (Anovion, Epsilon, Graphite One, NOVONIX Lookout Valley). Among the cathode facilities, LG Chem Clarksville broke ground in 2023-12 with no newer milestone disclosed, 6K Energy has reset to early 2028, and Redwood's CAM qualification status is opaque. Both separator greenfields, ENTEK and Microporous Danville, are in early construction.

The cell plants at final gates will file for §45X credits. The materials plants that would supply domestic content for those credits are, in the main, two to four years behind them. That mismatch could resolve several ways: the cell plants qualify on imported material, the materials plants accelerate, or the compliance rules move. What can be verified today is only that the mismatch exists, that it is measured in years rather than quarters, and that nothing in the evidence through this reporting date shows it narrowing.