--- title: "The Log" canonical: "https://anchor.is/the-hysteresis/issue/9/the-log" publication: "The Hysteresis" publisher: "The Hysteresis" language: "en-US" guide: "https://anchor.is/the-hysteresis/llms.txt" permalink: "https://anchor.is/the-hysteresis/issue/9/the-log" issue: 9 section: "the-log" description: "What was announced, built, and cancelled" authors: ["Elise Huan-Cartwright","Ronan Adike"] published: 2026-08-10 updated: 2026-08-08 articles: 10 --- # The Hysteresis > The Hysteresis exists to give a small cross-functional team — strategy, investment, and procurement — a shared weekly instrument for reading the battery supply chain earlier than consensus. Success means the team consistently identifies inflection points in cell pricing, supplier health, and policy enforcement weeks or months before they surface in earnings calls, annual surveys, or trade press. The commercial mechanism is internal-first: the publication proves itself as a decision tool inside the organization, then extends to paid subscribers and a practitioner community as upside. Revenue follows utility — if the team makes better-timed procurement calls and competitive assessments because of what they read here, the publication earned its place. [Read on the website]() ## Issue 9 — The Log What was announced, built, and cancelled ### The Buyer's Number - [The Buyer's Number]() — By [Elise Huan-Cartwright]() · Published 2026-08-08 Approximately 20 GWh of US-made cell capacity has publicly verifiable evidence of accepted commercial shipments as of August 2026. This is the figure the registry exists to track. ### Florence Source Audit - [AESC Florence — Fourteen Months Idle While BMW's Pack Plant Runs]() — By [Elise Huan-Cartwright]() · Published 2026-08-08 · Format: The Stated vs. Observed Audit Fourteen months after AESC paused construction at Florence, no company statement has supplied a restart date. The one third-party claim that work had resumed came in April; ENR reported the site still idled at roughly 75% completion, with a $26.2M lien from the general contractor. BMW's Woodruff pack plant, meanwhile, has been assembling pre-series batteries since summer 2025 from a cell source neither company will name, and AESC's July announcement of 46120 mass production placed it in Cangzhou and Jiangyin. The air permit's 18-month discontinuance clock runs to approximately 2026-12-05. Full stated-vs-observed sequence from the 2022 announcement, with an assessed earliest qualifying date. ### Contractable Supply Inventory - [US Addressable Cell Supply Inventory]() — By [Elise Huan-Cartwright]() · Published 2026-08-08 · Format: Contractable Supply Inventory Thirteen US facilities have demonstrated lithium-ion cell production, with combined disclosed nameplate above 240 GWh. The portion an unaffiliated buyer can size as contractable from public disclosure is zero. Every reviewed producer either dedicates output to a captive partner, routes it through its own downstream channel, or — as with SK On Commerce after Ford's exit — is recruiting new customers without ever quantifying the capacity freed. This is the facility-by-facility inventory behind that denominator, covering production evidence, inferable capacity, customer exclusivity, and IRA compliance status for every qualifying plant. ### Pipeline Evidence Map - [The Denominator's Future — What Must Become True Before Non-Producing Facilities Enter Addressable Supply]() — By [Ronan Adike]() · Published 2026-08-08 · Format: Pipeline Evidence Map Forty-two US battery manufacturing facilities carry public capacity commitments and ship no commercial product. Organized by the observable gates remaining before each could contribute addressable supply, the pipeline is bottom-heavy: twenty records sit at financing or construction, nine have reached customer qualification or pre-commercial output. The facilities approaching final gates are predominantly OEM-backed cell plants. The materials projects that would support their §45X compliance lag by two to four years. Every facility entry names the specific evidence that would change its status. ### External Reading - **Clayco Files $26.2M Lien-Foreclosure Suit Against AESC; Florence Plant Status Functionally Suspended** — [Source]() — Published 2026-08-08 Contractor departed site 2026-01; lawsuit filed 2026-07. Company has not confirmed cancellation. Cross-ref PFE entry. - **Ford BlueOval Michigan Confirms Full LFP Cell Process; CATL Operational Role Documented** — [Source]() — Published 2026-08-08 Pilot production from slurry to aging verified. CATL involvement raises standing PFE tracking question for 30D eligibility. - **L-H Battery Begins ESS Cell Production in Ohio; BEV-to-ESS Conversion Following Honda EV Program Exit** — [Source]() — Published 2026-08-08 Registry status change: operational for ESS via LGES Vertech. HEV line planned. Original BEV nameplate no longer applicable. - **BMW Links AESC Florence Stoppage to PFE Compliance Concerns; Secures Alternate US Cell Supply** — [Source]() — Published 2026-08-08 First public attribution of Florence halt to foreign-entity rules, not demand alone. BMW sourcing two-stage workaround. - **LGES Q2 Return to Profit on US BESS Revenue; North American ESS Capacity Target 50+ GWh by Year-End** — [Source]() — Published 2026-08-08 ESS revenue up fivefold. Capacity figure relevant to Spring Hill and L-H Battery conversion tracking. - **LGES Wins Honda Prismatic Contract; Reviewing Prismatic Line Addition at Ultium Spring Hill** — [Source]() — Published 2026-08-08 Third application layer at Spring Hill would require separate compliance tracking per line. Chemistry and format shift noted. ## Other sections in Issue 9 - [Signal]() - [China]() - [Korea]() - [Defense]() - [Qualification]() ## More - [Publication guide]() - [Issue archive]()