Brenda Burman pulls up three different summer flow projections on her laptop screen at 6:47 AM, before the February 11 Arizona Reconsultation Committee meeting. The Bureau of Reclamation's most-probable scenario shows Lake Powell inflow at just 52% of average —lowered by 1.5 million acre-feet since January. The dry conditions forecast shows something worse: Lake Powell dropping below minimum hydropower level by December.
She's the general manager of Central Arizona Project, which means she's responsible for 336 miles of canals delivering Colorado River water to 6 million people. CAP has junior water rights in a basin where older rights get priority when water runs low. Arizona has already forfeited 512,000 acre-feet in 2026 —18% of its annual allocation. Under some federal proposals, the state could face up to 760,000 acre-feet of cuts in the driest years.
She needs to explain to Governor Katie Hobbs and the committee members how to cut when every option harms someone.
Three Projections, No Good Answers
The conference room at CAP headquarters smells like burned coffee and the faint chemical tang of dry-erase markers. Burman has been general manager since January 2023, long enough to recognize when board members are bracing for bad news. Today they're all bracing.
She opens with the snowpack data: Colorado's January 1 snowpack at 56% of median, with monitoring sites recording record lows. Then the reservoir levels: Lake Mead at 34% full, Lake Powell at 25%. Then the projections that diverge wildly depending on spring precipitation nobody can predict.
| Scenario | Lake Powell Inflow | Potential Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Most-Probable | 52% of average | Continued decline |
| Dry Conditions | Below 52% | Drop below minimum hydropower level by December |
| Current Reality | Already down 1.5M acre-feet since January | 18% allocation cut, potentially 27% |
"We may breach the compact in 2026," she tells the committee, "and almost certainly it will be breached in 2027."
The 1922 Colorado River Compact requires the Upper Basin to deliver 75 million acre-feet over ten years to the Lower Basin at Lee Ferry. Stephen Lewis from Gila River Indian Community sits forward. That guaranteed release was essential to their 2004 water rights settlement that provided the community with more than 650,000 acre-feet annually.
"Any unilateral action by the Department of the Interior that fails to uphold this minimum release would constitute a blatant violation of the United States' responsibility to protect our CAP water."
Burman knows what he's not saying: if the compact breaches, tribal water rights negotiated in good faith become bargaining chips again.
Phoenix Needs Numbers She Doesn't Have
Later, at her desk, Burman calls Phoenix water officials. They're doing "scenario planning." Which neighborhoods lose water first if federal officials agree to cuts in post-2026 negotiations.
Phoenix gets 40% of its supply from the Colorado River through CAP. The city needs to know about cuts before October 2026, when they submit water orders saying how much they need and where. If negotiations produce an agreement, cuts could start January 2027. Seven months to figure out how to tell residents their taps might run dry.
Kathryn Wilson, water resources management advisor for Phoenix, asks the question Burman can't answer:
"What's the range we should plan for?"
Anywhere from current 18% cuts to 27% if Arizona's offer is accepted to potentially more if the Upper Basin refuses mandatory reductions. But Wilson needs numbers for budget planning, infrastructure decisions, public communications. "We hear all the time that Phoenix shouldn't exist," Wilson had told reporters. "Are we going to make the choices we need to make?"
Burman gives her the three scenarios. Knows it's not enough.
Fifteen Board Members, One Impossible Ask
At the monthly CAP board meeting—first Thursday, Phoenix headquarters—Burman presents the same projections. Fifteen elected board members representing the most populated regions in Arizona. The room has that particular acoustics of important decisions being made: voices echoing slightly off high ceilings, the rustle of paper as members flip through briefing packets.
"We need everyone to be taking on some risk. All of the risk cannot fall to the Central Arizona Project and Arizona. That's simply not acceptable."
- Arizona: 27% reduction offered
- California: 10% reduction offered
- Nevada: 17% reduction offered
- Upper Basin states: Refuse mandatory cuts
The Upper Basin states argue they already use less than allocated amounts and face uncompensated shortages each year. In Utah's Uintah Basin, ranchers reduced cattle herd sizes when less than half the normal water flowed into Lake Powell. In southwestern Colorado, farmers using Dolores Water Conservancy District water have dealt with shortages in five of the past eight years.
She understands their position. Also knows it doesn't solve her problem.
22 of the 30 basin tribes live in Arizona. If the compact breaches, water rights settlements negotiated over decades become uncertain again.
A board member asks about the tribal water rights. Burman explains that the Colorado River isn't just infrastructure—it's sacred. The Gila River Indian Community's settlement guaranteed specific flows. If the compact breaches, those guarantees become uncertain.
She's already drafting contingency plans for scenarios where Arizona bears even more cuts. Where Phoenix residents learn their neighborhood is in the sacrifice zone. Where tribal communities watch their negotiated rights dissolve into another round of "consultations."
What She Tells the Press, What She Thinks
Burman returns to her office after the meeting. The window overlooks the canal system that took 20 years to build, cost $4 billion, and delivers more tribal water than any organization. She pulls up the draft statement for the press.
Arizona's leadership in conservation. The state's good-faith negotiations. The need for equitable burden-sharing. Professional. Measured. The words that will actually go out.
Then what runs through her head while she edits: My job is making sure supplies are secure. Three different futures on my laptop and none of them are good. Data showing Arizona has already taken a third of its water rights cut while Upper Basin states refuse mandatory reductions. Tribal leaders whose settlements might not hold. Phoenix officials who need to plan for cuts that could start in nine months. All the modeling and explaining and presenting—and still the risk has already fallen entirely on us.
The phone rings. Another call from a municipal water manager asking for clarity she can't provide. She answers it anyway. Navigating impossible choices when the science is clear but summer outcomes remain uncertain, when models diverge and communities need answers, when expertise can document the crisis but not prevent it.
Outside her window, the canal flows. For now.
She picks up the phone and starts explaining the three scenarios again. Knows by October they'll need actual numbers. Knows by January 2027, some neighborhoods in Phoenix will learn what junior water rights mean in historic drought.
The risk landed where it landed. She manages the impact.
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Nevada's negotiator speaks: John Entsminger of Southern Nevada Water Authority expressed frustration after basin states missed the February 14 deadline, stating he has "spent countless nights and weekends away from my family trying to craft a reasonable, mutually acceptable solution" only to be met with "tired rhetoric and entrenched positions."
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Denver Water's historic low: The South Platte River Basin within Denver Water's collection area ranked the worst snowpack on record for February 9 at 42% of normal, forcing officials to develop drought response recommendations for their board over the next two months.
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Upper Basin farmers' uncompensated losses: In southwestern Colorado, farmers using Dolores Water Conservancy District water have dealt with shortages in five of the past eight years, with the Ute Mountain Ute Tribe Farm and Ranch receiving only 10% of normal water delivery in 2021 and having to fallow 6,000 acres.
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Housing market climate migration: Nearly half of U.S. homeowners are considering relocating in 2026 specifically due to climate concerns, with 58% saying they would avoid moving to Florida and 52% avoiding California due to extreme weather risks.