"Most people are adding it. Just in case."
The solar installer keeps asking if I want to add the generator interconnect. It's $2,800 more, and it would let me go fully off-grid later if I wanted to.
Just in case of what, exactly? In case I decide I was wrong about staying connected to a grid I'm installing solar panels specifically because I don't trust it?
I'm sitting at my kitchen table in Austin with a contract for a 13.77 kW solar system and 13 kWh of battery storage. Total cost after the 30% federal tax credit: around $34,000. The credit expires December 31st. It's December 18th. I have two weeks to decide whether to bet $34,000 that the Texas grid will be there when I need it.
I don't believe it will be. Not reliably. 2024 had the second-highest customer outages in 15 years for ERCOT.
During an extreme winter event, available power could fall to 69.7 gigawatts while demand hits 85.3 gigawatts—a 15-gigawatt deficit.
So why am I staying connected to it?
The Numbers Don't Settle Anything
I've been running the numbers for three months. Grid-tied with batteries means I generate most of my own power during the day. My 13.77 kW system should produce around 60 kilowatt-hours on a typical Austin day, which is more than the 30-35 kWh my house uses. My meter runs backward when I produce excess. The grid is there as backup when my batteries run low.
But 13 kWh of batteries means I can run my refrigerator for about 24 hours, or my AC for maybe 6-8 hours on a hot day, or keep my office running for a full workday. Not all of those things at once. During an outage, I'm making choices: fridge plus lights plus fans, or AC for a few hours, or office equipment all day. The batteries bridge gaps. They don't eliminate them.
| Setup | Battery Capacity | Total Cost | After Tax Credit | Responsibility |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grid-tied (my choice) | 13 kWh | $48,600 | $34,000 | Grid handles gaps |
| Off-grid | 40 kWh + generator | $130,000-$157,000 | $90,000-$110,000 | I handle everything |
The financial math says stay connected. The climate math says get out while you can. I keep trying to figure out which math matters more, which is probably the wrong question entirely.
Afraid, But of What Exactly
I'm not afraid of the grid failing for a few hours, or even a few days. My 13 kWh can handle that if I'm careful. Keep the fridge running, keep my office powered, run the AC strategically during the hottest hours.
A week-long outage during a heat wave where my batteries run out on day three and I'm rationing power for four more days. A storm that knocks out power for ten days in winter. Outages becoming more frequent and longer until staying connected feels like paying for a service that barely exists. Those scenarios keep me up at night.
But I'm also afraid of being wrong about my own power needs. What if I go off-grid and undersize my system? What if I'm sitting in a dark house because I miscalculated how much power I'd need during a cloudy week? At least connected to the grid, I have a backup for my backup. If my batteries hit 20% during an outage and the sun isn't shining, I'm uncomfortable but not desperate. The grid will come back eventually.
Off-grid, that 20% battery level means different decisions. Do I run the generator now or wait? Do I turn off the AC to preserve battery for the fridge? The grid-tied choice is fundamentally a bet that most days will be normal days, that catastrophic failures will be rare enough that my batteries can bridge the gaps.
The Deadline Made the Decision
I wasn't planning to do this until next year. Battery technology would improve, costs would come down, the situation would become clearer. I was waiting for a better moment.
Then I learned about the tax credit deadline. After December 31st, the same system costs $10,000 more. That's the difference between "expensive but manageable" and "maybe we should wait another year."
So I'm making a permanent decision about my power infrastructure because of an arbitrary policy deadline. This feels like exactly the wrong way to make this choice. But waiting means paying more for the same system, and paying more means maybe not doing it at all, and not doing it means being completely dependent on a grid I've already decided I can't rely on.
The deadline turned a theoretical question into a practical one: Do I trust the grid enough to stay connected to it? And do I trust myself enough to manage my own power supply if I don't?
What I'm Actually Buying
The installer talks about the system like it's just equipment. Panels, inverters, batteries, monitoring. But what I'm actually buying is a different relationship with uncertainty.
Right now, when ERCOT issues a conservation appeal, I'm anxious. I'm checking their dashboard, looking at reserve margins, calculating whether I should pre-cool the house. I'm dependent on decisions made by people I don't know, managing infrastructure I don't control.
With solar and batteries, I'm still uncertain, but it's a different kind of uncertainty. I'm uncertain about whether 13 kWh will be enough during a three-day outage, not whether ERCOT's capacity will hold. I'm uncertain about my own planning, not about grid operators' decisions. The anxiety doesn't disappear, but it shifts from "will they keep the power on?" to "did I size this right?"
That feels more manageable somehow. Even if it's not actually less risky.
What I Expect to Learn
In six months, I'll know whether I underestimated my summer power needs. Whether 13 kWh is enough to get through the afternoon hours when my AC is running hardest. Whether I should have spent that extra $2,800 on the generator interconnect.
In two years, I'll know whether the grid has gotten worse in the ways I'm worried about. Whether outages are longer and more frequent. Whether more than 220 gigawatts of data center projects requesting grid connection means I made the right call to generate my own power.
In five years, I'll either be grateful I stayed connected because the grid held better than I expected, or because my batteries weren't enough and I needed that backup. Or I'll be kicking myself for not going off-grid when the tax credit made it $28,500 cheaper.
What would make me reconsider? If we get through next summer without major outages and my batteries handle every disruption easily, I might relax. If we get through next winter without a freeze and my system performs better than I expected, I might stop second-guessing. But if summer 2026 brings week-long outages or winter brings another Uri, I'll be pricing out that generator interconnect and wondering why I didn't just do it now.
The Unresolved Part
I keep coming back to this: staying connected while generating my own power feels like I'm hedging. I'm saying the grid is unreliable enough that I need protection, but reliable enough that I can depend on it as backup. I'm saying I don't trust ERCOT, but I trust them enough to bet $34,000 on them being there when my batteries run out.
Is that realistic? The grid will probably be there 95% of the time, and my batteries will cover the other 5%, and that's good enough. Perfect independence isn't worth the cost and responsibility of managing everything myself.
Or I'm rationalizing. Choosing the easier option and telling myself it's the smarter one.
The contract is sitting on my kitchen table. The deadline is December 31st. I'm signing it tomorrow, betting that connection plus partial independence is better than independence alone. In six months I'll know whether 13 kWh is enough. In two years I'll know whether the grid held. Check back with me next summer.