Korean Battery Makers' US Commitments Audited Against the Record

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LG Energy Solution — Holland MI (ESS LFP, operational; nameplate GWh not publicly disclosed at facility level), Lansing MI (LFP prismatic for Tesla, SOP 2027), Queen Creek AZ (cylindrical EV continuing; ESS paused since July 2024). JV facilities: Ultium Cells Warren OH and Spring Hill TN (both idled since January 2026). Announced North American target: 50 GWh by end-2026. Company language: network is "now in place." Assessed status diverges: two of five named facilities are idled with no disclosed restart date.

SK On — Commerce GA (two plants, operational, reduced workforce; original combined nameplate ~21.5 GWh per initial project announcements), Stanton TN (construction complete, not producing; nameplate ~43 GWh per original BlueOval SK projections). Company language: "committed to the Tennessee plant long-term." Assessed status diverges: Tennessee SOP slipped to 2028; Commerce workforce cut 37% via WARN filing.

Samsung SDI / StarPlus Energy — Kokomo IN Plant 1 (operational, NCA + LFP ESS lines; 33 GWh nameplate per original JV announcement). Plant 2 (34 GWh, announced October 2023, original SOP early 2027). Stellantis describes "ongoing collaborative discussions" on JV future. Assessed status: Plant 1 running. Plant 2 construction unconfirmed by any Tier 1 or Tier 2 source in 2026. JV dissolution in progress.

The Ledger

LG Energy Solution

2025-10-29 — Stated: Ultium Cells notified Ohio DJFS of mass layoff to "align with slower than expected near-term EV adoption," adding the company "plans to make upgrades to the facility to provide greater flexibility." Observed: 1,334 hourly workers laid off effective 2026-01-05 at Warren OH (850 temporary, 484 indefinite, all UAW Local 1112). Concurrent ~700 workers laid off at Spring Hill TN. Tennessee WARN filing date not independently confirmed from TN DOL records. Gap: "Upgrades" framing implies a temporary pause. The indefinite classification of 484 Ohio workers and absence of any disclosed restart timeline are inconsistent with that framing.

2026-03-23 — Stated: LGES announced a $4.3B supply agreement with Tesla for ESS LFP prismatic cells, with "dedicated production lines at our Lansing facility." Observed: Active engineering and purchasing postings on Indeed for Lansing MI as of 2026-05-19. Q1 2026 earnings confirmed PP&E increased due to "Michigan ESS line expansion." Holland MI also showing active QA and sales postings consistent with ongoing production. Gap: None. Capital deployment and hiring activity confirm the stated commitment. Lansing and Holland are executing.

2026-04-30 — Stated: Q1 2026 earnings described the North American network as "now in place," listing five facilities including the two idled Ultium plants, targeting "50 GWh of ESS battery production capacity in North America before the end of 2026." Observed: Two of the five listed facilities are idled with over 2,000 workers laid off. LGES posted an operating loss of KRW 207.8B in Q1 2026 despite recording KRW 189.8B in North America production incentives (AMPC/45X). Without the credit, the underlying operating loss was approximately KRW 398B. Gap: "Now in place" counts facilities that are not producing. The 50 GWh target requires restarting idled capacity for which no timeline exists in any public disclosure. Queen Creek AZ ESS capacity, paused since July 2024, goes unaddressed in the earnings language. Q1 2026 earnings confirmed "preparations of the cylindrical battery production site in Arizona" are continuing, but only one IT-level job posting was visible at Queen Creek as of 2026-05-19; no ESS production hiring was found. Equipment supplier order confirmations, construction permit activity, and satellite/aerial imagery references were searched for across all LGES US facilities and not found.

SK On

2025-12-12 — Stated: SK On spokesperson: "committed to the Tennessee plant long-term," with plans to pivot to stationary storage and other customers. SOP described as "flexible at this time, as it's tied to the ownership transition." Observed: BlueOval SK JV dissolution announced the same day. Original Tennessee SOP was late 2025. Gap: "Committed long-term" issued simultaneously with JV dissolution and indefinite SOP delay.

2026-02-18 — Stated: SK On spokesperson Joe Guy Collier: "committed to establishing the Tennessee facility as a cornerstone of its expanding U.S. advanced battery manufacturing capabilities." Commercial production now expected to begin in 2028. Observed: Tennessee plant employed approximately 300 people against an original projection of 3,500. Facility construction complete but idle. Tennessee's accountability agreement requires 90% of 5,800 combined jobs within 10 years; falling below 80% by 2032 triggers clawback of $500M plus $175M in land value. The DOE's $9.63B loan to BlueOval SK closed December 2024; a restructuring to "reduce taxpayer exposure" was reported by CBT News in December 2025 but no DOE press release confirming the restructuring amount has been found. Gap: "Cornerstone" describes a completed facility staffed at under 9% of target, with SOP three years behind original schedule.

2026-03-06 — Stated: SK Battery America spokesperson: "remains committed to Georgia and to building a robust U.S. supply chain." Observed: WARN filing for 958 workers at Commerce GA, last working day 2026-03-06, reducing headcount from ~2,566 to ~1,600. Approximately 150 employees laid off at Tennessee in the same month, bringing the site down to a skeleton crew of ~150. Tennessee layoff figure reported without primary sourcing identified; formal TN WARN filing not found. No active large-scale hiring visible at either facility as of 2026-05-19. Equipment supplier order references and construction permit activity were searched for at both SK On US sites and not found. Gap: "Committed to Georgia" issued concurrent with a 37% workforce reduction.

Samsung SDI / StarPlus Energy

2025-08-06 — Stated: No public company statement on the workforce action was identified. Observed: StarPlus Energy reduced ~18% of salaried workforce at Kokomo IN. No Indiana WARN filing found; the reduction may not have met the 50-employee threshold, or Indiana records were not accessible via web search. Absence-of-evidence finding. Gap: Ambiguous. Workforce reduction confirmed; company silence prevents stated-vs-observed comparison. What would resolve it: any public statement from Samsung SDI or StarPlus addressing the reduction.

2025-10-28 — Stated: Samsung SDI Q3 2025 earnings: "plans to better respond to the growing U.S. ESS market by establishing manufacturing facilities in the region," with annual US ESS capacity expected to reach 30 GWh by end-2026. Observed: Plant 1 at Kokomo confirmed operational, producing NCA cells with LFP ESS lines under installation. Analyst estimates (NH Investment & Securities, 2026-03-23, Tier C) reference "expansion of production lines 2 and 3 at StarPlus Energy" as an ESS capacity driver. This appears to describe line expansion within Plant 1, not Plant 2 construction. The distinction is ambiguous in available sources. Gap: Plant 1 operational status is a confirming signal. Whether 30 GWh is achievable from Plant 1 alone (33 GWh nameplate) without Plant 2 is not addressed in any public disclosure found.

2026-02-10 — Stated: Stellantis: "ongoing collaborative discussions with Samsung on the future of our StarPlus Energy JV." Observed: KED Global reported Samsung SDI and Stellantis are moving to "unwind" the JV, with Stellantis potentially selling its 49% stake. Samsung SDI announced plans to sell its 15.22% stake in Samsung Display (~$6.9B) to fund ESS investments; the Korea Herald reported that Samsung SDI could potentially use these funds to acquire Stellantis' remaining stake if a deal proceeds. The $7.54B DOE loan to StarPlus Energy LLC closed December 2024; no DOE statement on its treatment under JV restructuring or the January 2026 $83B portfolio review was found. Plant 2 construction status (34 GWh, original SOP early 2027) has not been confirmed or denied by any Tier 1 or Tier 2 source in 2026. Equipment supplier order references, construction permit filings, and satellite/aerial imagery for Plant 2 were searched for and not found. Gap: "Collaborative discussions" describes what reporting characterizes as an unwinding. The DOE loan's status under changed ownership is unresolved.

Trajectory Assessment

Read as a time series, the three ledgers show commitment language holding steady while observable signals deteriorate underneath it. The pace differs by company.

SK On's gap is widening fastest. Tennessee is staffed at roughly 4% of its workforce target, SOP has slipped three years, and Commerce lost over a third of its workers in a single WARN cycle. No countervailing signal was found at either site. If the current trajectory holds, SK On's US manufacturing presence is a single partially staffed plant in Georgia and a completed shell in Tennessee with a clawback clock running.

LGES is split. Lansing and Holland show genuine capital deployment confirmed by hiring activity and PP&E increases. The Tesla ESS contract is a real commercial anchor. The "50 GWh network" framing, though, depends on Ultium facilities that are idled with no restart date, and Q1 2026 was loss-making even with the 45X credit. Strip it out and the operating loss roughly doubles to approximately KRW 398B. The confirming signals are real, and the stated network is still 40% dark by facility count. The capacity-weighted share of idled facilities may differ, but LGES does not disclose per-facility GWh breakdowns at the resolution needed to calculate it.

Samsung SDI is the hardest to read. Plant 1 is one of only two Korean-owned US battery facilities that are both operational and not subject to disclosed workforce reduction in 2026, the other being LGES Holland MI. A genuine confirming signal. The JV is dissolving around it, Plant 2 is a black box, and a $7.54B DOE loan sits inside a legal entity whose ownership structure is changing with no public guidance on treatment. If Samsung SDI acquires the Stellantis stake and continues expanding Plant 1, the gap narrows. If the JV liquidates, the gap widens materially.

Last verified: 2026-05-19. Source tiers and information gaps noted inline. Samsung SDI Q1 2026 actual earnings not retrieved; analyst estimates labeled Tier C. Observable signals searched for but not found across all three companies: equipment supplier order confirmations (Wuxi Lead, Manz, Schuler), construction permit activity at county level, satellite/aerial imagery references in trade press.