Public discussion of 10 USC 4865 compliance treats it as a countdown: 2028 for new programs, 2029 for standard batteries, 2031 for existing programs. That framing understates the problem.
Three clocks are running simultaneously at different speeds. Clock 1 is the statutory deadline: fixed, public. Clock 2 is the qualification timeline: FAT completion, QPL listing under MIL-PRF-32565, production ramp. Program-specific, mostly invisible, subject to full restart if a cell-origin change triggers a new first article. Clock 3 is public compliance infrastructure: DFARS clauses, the compliance repository due January 2027, waiver documentation standards. As of this Independence Day weekend, no proposed or final DFARS rule implementing Section 4865 has appeared in the Federal Register.
Procurement risk concentrates in the gaps between clocks. A program facing a 2028 Clock 1 deadline whose supplier discovers FEOC exposure in 2027 hits a Clock 2 restart that cannot complete before Clock 1 fires, and currently lacks the Clock 3 infrastructure to formally document a waiver. The statute anticipated this, building in one-year exemptions. Whether waivers become the early operating model is an open question with no public artifact to answer it yet.
This section tracks where each clock stands and where the gaps are widening.
Clock 1 — Statutory deadline Fixed by Pub. L. 119-60 (Dec. 2025). Immovable. Fully public. 2028/2029/2031 phase-in dates are settled law.
Clock 2 — Qualification timeline Governed by FAT requirements and QPL listing under MIL-PRF-32565. 12–36+ months, program-specific. Mostly opaque until contract award. Design, material, process, or facility changes require new first article, resetting the clock.
Clock 3 — Compliance infrastructure DFARS rulemaking, compliance repository, waiver documentation. Slowest clock. A DFARS case is open as of May 2026; no proposed rule published. Repository due Jan. 2027. No public waiver artifacts found through late June 2026.
Where risk concentrates: Clock 1 minus Clock 2. When that number goes negative, the waiver structure in Clock 3 is the only path forward. Clock 3 isn't built yet.