E2 counted 54 cancellations, closures, and downsizings through mid-June, $18.2 billion in lost investment. The more consequential 2026 pattern is conversion: physically real, often financed assets whose ownership, product, chemistry, financing obligor, or workforce basis has changed from the original announcement. Five distinct dimensions. Ford Kentucky changed its obligor, product, and application in separate events sourced to separate filings. Spring Hill changed chemistry (NCMA to LFP), application (EV to ESS), and workforce simultaneously. De Soto announced a product conversion with no chemistry change.
Each dimension carries different implications for counterparty risk, qualification timelines, and PFE/MACR compliance under Notice 2026-15. A converted GWh is not usable supply until it clears each relevant proof state. Cancellations measure what disappeared. Conversions, disaggregated by dimension, determine what 2027–2028 domestic supply actually looks like. This issue does that work.
Ownership/obligor — Ford Energy Battery LLC acquired BlueOval SK Kentucky interests, assumed $3.8B DOE note. Counterparty risk changes; job commitments unconfirmed.
Product/application — Ford Kentucky to BESS, Spring Hill to ESS, StarPlus to ESS, De Soto to data-center cells. Same label, four different buyer pools.
Chemistry/materials — Spring Hill NCMA→LFP, StarPlus NCA→LFP. Changes cathode supplier, PFE trace, qualification basis. De Soto stays NCA.
Financing/obligor — DOE note obligor shift (Ford Kentucky) is distinct from product pivot. Affects credit eligibility tracking, not just supply.
Workforce — Spring Hill recalled ~700 workers for LFP retraining. Most observable leading indicator that a conversion is real.