The Denominator Problem
Every major US battery capacity tracker sorts facilities into some version of operational, under construction, delayed, or cancelled. None of them sort by buyer. A cell plant that converts from automotive to stationary storage keeps its GWh in the aggregate. E2's methodology is explicit: changes that do not reduce production capacity are excluded from cancellation counts. Rhodium's Clean Investment Monitor tracks production state, not application.
So the headline number can hold while the addressable supply underneath it redistributes. CSIS estimates roughly 40 percent of operating and planned US capacity was tied to automaker partnerships in 2025, and reports that manufacturers find EV-to-grid switching "financially and operationally feasible, though not without friction." When that switching happens, cancellations reduce the total GWh figure but conversions merely reroute it. The trackers capture the first movement. They are structurally blind to the second, and so is any procurement model built on their output.
Panasonic De Soto — Producing, but 32 GWh Addressed to Whom?
De Soto hit mass production on schedule, July 2025. Four lines, 1,800 employees, 32 GWh nameplate. Among the cleaner US proof files. Then Panasonic's June 2026 investor day disclosed conversion for data-center applications without quantifying the allocation. The 32 GWh still sits in every domestic EV supply model as automotive capacity. Line-level application split: undisclosed. Neither the EV-addressable GWh nor the data-center share can be verified from public evidence. The ledger below sources both sides of each signal.
Panasonic De Soto — Producing, but 32 GWh Addressed to Whom?
De Soto hit mass production on schedule, July 2025. Four lines, 1,800 employees, 32 GWh nameplate. Among the cleaner US proof files. Then Panasonic's June 2026 investor day disclosed conversion for data-center applications without quantifying the allocation. The 32 GWh still sits in every domestic EV supply model as automotive capacity. Line-level application split: undisclosed. Neither the EV-addressable GWh nor the data-center share can be verified from public evidence. The ledger below sources both sides of each signal.
The EV Cell Denominator Is Shrinking Without Capacity Disappearing
Three US battery facilities representing 184 GWh of originally EV-linked nameplate have disclosed or signaled migration toward stationary storage and data-center supply since late 2025. None of that capacity has been cancelled. It sits in aggregate trackers, nominally intact. But Ford's 8-K filing, Samsung StarPlus's disclosed line conversion, and SK Commerce's WARN-documented workforce reduction all point the same direction: the EV cell supply denominator is contracting while the battery capacity numerator holds steady. The gap between those two figures is widening, and no aggregate dataset currently measures it.
The EV Cell Denominator Is Shrinking Without Capacity Disappearing
Three US battery facilities representing 184 GWh of originally EV-linked nameplate have disclosed or signaled migration toward stationary storage and data-center supply since late 2025. None of that capacity has been cancelled. It sits in aggregate trackers, nominally intact. But Ford's 8-K filing, Samsung StarPlus's disclosed line conversion, and SK Commerce's WARN-documented workforce reduction all point the same direction: the EV cell supply denominator is contracting while the battery capacity numerator holds steady. The gap between those two figures is widening, and no aggregate dataset currently measures it.
Which Federal Instruments Follow a Battery Facility When It Stops Making EV Cells
Three federal instruments attach to the battery facilities now pivoting from EV to non-EV output: the §45X manufacturing credit, the FEOC/PFE compliance architecture, and DOE Loan Programs Office financing. Each is tethered to a different legal object, and the tethers produce different answers when the facility's product changes. §45X follows the component regardless of what it powers. FEOC/PFE compliance pressure loses its §30D origin but acquires two independent PFE screens under §45X and §48E, with different thresholds falling on different parties. The LPO loan is governed by a partially redacted agreement whose terms the public record cannot resolve. Treating these as a single question produces a single wrong answer.
Which Federal Instruments Follow a Battery Facility When It Stops Making EV Cells
Three federal instruments attach to the battery facilities now pivoting from EV to non-EV output: the §45X manufacturing credit, the FEOC/PFE compliance architecture, and DOE Loan Programs Office financing. Each is tethered to a different legal object, and the tethers produce different answers when the facility's product changes. §45X follows the component regardless of what it powers. FEOC/PFE compliance pressure loses its §30D origin but acquires two independent PFE screens under §45X and §48E, with different thresholds falling on different parties. The LPO loan is governed by a partially redacted agreement whose terms the public record cannot resolve. Treating these as a single question produces a single wrong answer.
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