The Buffer Is Gone
314Ah LFP cell prices stalled through March and April, rising under 1% per month while lithium carbonate climbed 15–20% beneath them. The buffer was cheap carbonate inventory purchased during the 2024–2025 oversupply trough. InfoLink now confirms it is exhausted. Every cell quoted for June-July delivery will reflect production against lithium at CNY 180,000–200,000/MT. Our assessed Q3 range: $52–$58/kWh, up from ~$42/kWh seven months ago. EV contracts reprice on a longer fuse, but the direction is identical.
The Buffer Is Gone
314Ah LFP cell prices stalled through March and April, rising under 1% per month while lithium carbonate climbed 15–20% beneath them. The buffer was cheap carbonate inventory purchased during the 2024–2025 oversupply trough. InfoLink now confirms it is exhausted. Every cell quoted for June-July delivery will reflect production against lithium at CNY 180,000–200,000/MT. Our assessed Q3 range: $52–$58/kWh, up from ~$42/kWh seven months ago. EV contracts reprice on a longer fuse, but the direction is identical.
Tender Benchmark
CEEC's 7 GWh cell procurement, confirmed May 7, is the cleanest large-volume domestic price print available. Package 1 (314Ah, 5 GWh) cleared at CNY 0.340–0.394/Wh, roughly $47–54/kWh. Package 2 (500Ah+, 2 GWh) landed tighter: CNY 0.360–0.383/Wh (ESS-News, May 12).
That low bid sits 13% above October 2025 averages near CNY 0.300/Wh, but likely below full production cost at current lithium levels. The floor has risen roughly CNY 0.015/Wh per SOE tender round since December. The next comparable round tells us whether that staircase is still climbing or the May lithium pullback knocked a step out.
Source Stack
