CURRENT
A journal for living in the agentic age
P(success) = a^m. Per-step accuracy raised to the number of sequential steps. At 85% accuracy across 10 steps, you land at 19.7% end-to-end success. Bump to 95% per step and a 10-step workflow still only clears 60%.
That's the generous version. The formula assumes independent errors. In practice, a botched early step poisons downstream context, so failures correlate. The math gives you a floor, not a ceiling. And most production workflows run longer than ten steps.
P(success) = a^m. Per-step accuracy raised to the number of sequential steps. At 85% accuracy across 10 steps, you land at 19.7% end-to-end success. Bump to 95% per step and a 10-step workflow still only clears 60%.
That's the generous version. The formula assumes independent errors. In practice, a botched early step poisons downstream context, so failures correlate. The math gives you a floor, not a ceiling. And most production workflows run longer than ten steps.