Any role past 21 days without repost evidence gets this checklist before you spend tailoring time. Three channels, fifteen minutes.
Channel 1 — ATS re-check (3 min). Hit the career page directly. URL returns 404 or role gone from search? Stop. Still live? Check whether the description changed or a new role ID appeared. Aggregator timestamp refreshes don't count.
Channel 2 — state-check message (5 min). If Channel 1 is ambiguous, message the recruiter or hiring manager. One line: "I've been following [Role Title] — is the mandate still focused on [specific problem]? Want to confirm before reaching out formally." You're clarifying the mandate, not asking if the posting is stale.
Channel 3 — public signal scan (5 min). Search the hiring manager's LinkedIn, last 30 days. "We're hiring," "building out design," successor-search language. A recent post overrides posting age. No posts doesn't confirm closure, but you've run out of counter-evidence.
Silence after 5–7 business days moves the role to "Watch." One follow-up at day 7, then stop. Frozen req, formed slate, compliance posting. Don't tailor.