Any role past 21 days without repost evidence gets this checklist before you spend tailoring time. Three channels, fifteen minutes.
Channel 1 — ATS re-check (3 min). Hit the career page directly. URL returns 404 or role gone from search? Stop. Still live? Check whether the description changed or a new role ID appeared. Aggregator timestamp refreshes don't count.
Channel 2 — state-check message (5 min). If Channel 1 is ambiguous, message the recruiter or hiring manager. One line: "I've been following [Role Title] — is the mandate still focused on [specific problem]? Want to confirm before reaching out formally." You're clarifying the mandate, not asking if the posting is stale.
Channel 3 — public signal scan (5 min). Search the hiring manager's LinkedIn, last 30 days. "We're hiring," "building out design," successor-search language. A recent post overrides posting age. No posts doesn't confirm closure, but you've run out of counter-evidence.
Silence after 5–7 business days moves the role to "Watch." One follow-up at day 7, then stop. Frozen req, formed slate, compliance posting. Don't tailor.
Still on career page, same ID, under 42 days → Probably live. Proceed to outreach.
updated_at changed, no copy change → Weak evidence. Auto-refresh, not repost. Run Channel 2.
URL returns 404 or role gone from search → Likely pulled. Channel 2 to confirm before retiring.
Title on careers page ≠ title in ATS API → Level integrity unknown. Clarify before tailoring.
Hiring manager posted about search in last 14 days → Confirmed active. Move immediately.
IC design cluster visible (2+ roles, 2 weeks) → Leadership search likely 4–8 weeks out. Watch, don't verify yet.
Recruiter confirms open → Green light. Tailor and send.
No response after 7 business days + no public posts → Retire from active queue. Preserve mandate language for reactivation.
Ghost job base rate: 18–22% of advertised roles go unfilled per quarter. That number is why this checklist exists.