Blue UAS platform certification is scaling on schedule while Section 842 battery FEOC compliance infrastructure shows no visible implementation progress toward binding deadlines.

Section 842 deadline math against qualified domestic battery suppliers reveals a narrowing gap decelerating into a missing DFARS enforcement mechanism.

LG's organic losses improved by KRW 57B, but 45X credits collapsed 43% faster, exposing a widening gap the headline obscures.

Lithium carbonate surged but cell prices lagged; inventory buffers are expiring, and the pass-through gap has a 60–90 day clock.

US battery facility cancellations are slowing because cancellable projects are gone; remaining negative signals hit the operational core, compressing near-term ESS cell supply.

Maps the enforceable reality of 45X credits, PFE restrictions, and the graphite exemption against statutory text and unresolved Treasury guidance gaps.

Stated commitments from LG, SK On, and Samsung SDI measured against WARN filings, idled facilities, JV dissolutions, and workforce data.

Four dated Chinese regulatory clocks compound to reprice battery exports by producer tier, with a usable enforcement calendar for procurement teams.

Maps six forces on China's LFP cell price floor, separates structural from cyclical, and delivers lock-or-float triggers for procurement teams.

VAT rebate elimination maps which Chinese battery exporters survive post-January 2027 through disclosed margin math and tier-by-tier absorption analysis.

Maps four independent forces acting on China's Tier-2 cell producers by timeline, reversibility, and segment scope to assess price floor durability through H1 2027.

Cell manufacturers have burned through cheap lithium inventory; June-July BESS quotes will carry full input costs for the first time this cycle.