China's 2% consumption tax on lithium-ion batteries takes effect September 1, and it creates a measurement problem before it creates a margin problem. The tax is booked under "taxes and surcharges" in Chinese financial statements, below gross profit (BigGo Finance, July 20). It does not appear as an invoice line item. SMM and InfoLink transaction-price assessments may therefore register no movement while producer netback falls by ~RMB 0.007/Wh.
That figure sits within the existing SMM–InfoLink spread on 314 Ah LFP cells (roughly RMB 0.006/Wh). A September quote that looks flat against August could be absorbing the full tax. Neither assessor has announced a methodology update to distinguish tax-inclusive from tax-exclusive observations. From September, this section will track invoice-price and tax-normalized trajectories separately. Until assessors tag their observations by tax basis, the second derivative on the headline series is unreadable.
Tax rate: 2% from Sept 1, 2026; 4% from Sept 1, 2027 (CnEVPost)
At RMB 0.36/Wh: ~RMB 0.0072/Wh (2%), ~RMB 0.0144/Wh (4%)
Accounting line: Taxes and surcharges, below gross profit — compresses operating margin, not gross margin
Exempt: Sodium-ion, solid-state, fuel cells through Dec 2028 (requires CMA-accredited test report)
Exports: Expected tax-exempt per GF Securities analysis — opens domestic/export netback split
Deduction rule: Externally purchased cells used in continuous production of taxable battery products qualify for deduction; applicability to ESS system integrators not publicly settled
Assessor updates: None found as of Aug 14 from SMM or InfoLink