Policy Implementation State
IRS Notice 2026-15 (February 12, 2026) remains the operative document for PFE material assistance cost ratio calculations under 45X, 45Y, and 48E. IRS bulletin, Federal Register, and regulatory-docket checks through August 14 identified no superseding guidance, proposed regulations, or updated safe-harbor tables. Law firm analyses published through July 2026 continue to cite Notice 2026-15 without referencing replacement guidance.
Separately, the USITC voted negative (2-1) on March 12 in both AD and CVD investigations of active anode material from China, despite Commerce finding combined margins approaching 160%. No duty orders will issue. Petitioners included Anovion, Syrah, NOVONIX, and Epsilon. The investigation scope excluded AAM already incorporated into imported cells, modules, or packs.
Three categories of proposed regulation share the December 31, 2026 statutory deadline (see right column). Until those publish, compliance positioning depends on the interim MACR thresholds and the Notice 2025-08 domestic content safe-harbor tables — which were designed for a different purpose and may not survive into the final PFE framework.
Samsung SDI New Carlisle — What the GM Buyout Transfers, Resets, and Leaves Unverifiable
Samsung SDI's acquisition of GM's stake at New Carlisle changes ownership and stated application, from EV cells to stationary storage. It does not change what is physically on the site: an erected shell with no production equipment installed or reported on order. Equipment ordering slipped through four successive deferrals before an application change voided the plan it was slipping against. State and county incentive agreements still reference EV production and a December 2027 deadline. Samsung's disclosed ESS contracts and capacity targets point to Kokomo.
Samsung SDI New Carlisle — What the GM Buyout Transfers, Resets, and Leaves Unverifiable
Samsung SDI's acquisition of GM's stake at New Carlisle changes ownership and stated application, from EV cells to stationary storage. It does not change what is physically on the site: an erected shell with no production equipment installed or reported on order. Equipment ordering slipped through four successive deferrals before an application change voided the plan it was slipping against. State and county incentive agreements still reference EV production and a December 2027 deadline. Samsung's disclosed ESS contracts and capacity targets point to Kokomo.
Two LGES Facilities Declared ESS Mass Production. The Public Record Doesn't Show What's Available.
LGES confirmed ESS-cell production at L-H Ohio in June and Spring Hill in May, with L-H declaring "mass production" on July 1. Both facilities count toward LGES's 50 GWh North American ESS capacity target. We audited every available disclosure type — company announcements, quarterly aggregates, Vertech portfolio figures, DOE records, Korean-language filings, 45X credit payments — against the evidence states required to treat a facility as procurable supply. All confirm production started; none reaches facility-specific converted GWh, stabilized yield, customer-qualified volume, or uncommitted allocation.
Two LGES Facilities Declared ESS Mass Production. The Public Record Doesn't Show What's Available.
LGES confirmed ESS-cell production at L-H Ohio in June and Spring Hill in May, with L-H declaring "mass production" on July 1. Both facilities count toward LGES's 50 GWh North American ESS capacity target. We audited every available disclosure type — company announcements, quarterly aggregates, Vertech portfolio figures, DOE records, Korean-language filings, 45X credit payments — against the evidence states required to treat a facility as procurable supply. All confirm production started; none reaches facility-specific converted GWh, stabilized yield, customer-qualified volume, or uncommitted allocation.
The Missing Denominator in US Battery Cancellation Data
Rhodium's Q1 2026 data puts cancelled battery and EV manufacturing investment at $1.6 billion, down from $8.4 billion the prior quarter. E2's cumulative tracker shows project cancellations still climbing. The two are regularly cited against each other as competing assessments of pipeline health, which they are not: the tracked universes differ, the reporting periods differ, and "cancelled" does not mean the same thing in both. Open the methodology and the disagreement resolves. What remains is a harder problem — no published source provides the structure needed to determine whether a project entering the pipeline today faces better or worse odds than one announced two years ago.
The Missing Denominator in US Battery Cancellation Data
Rhodium's Q1 2026 data puts cancelled battery and EV manufacturing investment at $1.6 billion, down from $8.4 billion the prior quarter. E2's cumulative tracker shows project cancellations still climbing. The two are regularly cited against each other as competing assessments of pipeline health, which they are not: the tracked universes differ, the reporting periods differ, and "cancelled" does not mean the same thing in both. Open the methodology and the disagreement resolves. What remains is a harder problem — no published source provides the structure needed to determine whether a project entering the pipeline today faces better or worse odds than one announced two years ago.
External Sources
