CABIA's January–July 2026 combined power-and-ESS battery data: production 1,286.9 GWh, sales 1,164.6 GWh. The gap is 122.3 GWh, 10.5% of reported sales. Full-year 2025's production-sales difference was 55.1 GWh, 3.2% of sales. Seven months into 2026, the residual has more than doubled the prior year's total.
The widening is rate-driven. Production grew +54.9% YoY through July, sales +48.1%, exports +43.9%, domestic EV installations +15.4%. All four channels are growing. The spread between output growth and each successive absorption channel is widening at each step.
A necessary caveat: the 122.3 GWh is not a physical inventory figure. CABIA publishes no stock measure. The production-minus-sales residual contains timing lags, work in progress, captive OEM transfers, and channel stock in proportions the public series cannot disaggregate.
The rest of this section examines where unabsorbed production is sitting and what determines whether it clears in H2 or compounds.
July was the widest single month Production 218.0 GWh vs. sales 185.2 GWh. Gap of 32.8 GWh, or 17.7% of monthly sales.
September 1 consumption tax A 2% tax on lithium-ion batteries takes effect September 1. If manufacturers pulled forward sales into July–August, the gap may temporarily compress then revert. August CABIA data, due mid-September, is the first test.
Data vintage H1 2026: CABIA via Fastmarkets, July 22. July: CABIA via Zhitong/Sina Finance, Aug 18. Full-year 2025: CABIA via Jin10, Jan 16.