Lithium Carbonate +RMB 9/kg in Two Weeks; Cell Assessments Held Flat
Lithium carbonate rose RMB 9/kg over two weeks. LFP ESS cell assessments didn't move. The available read is cost absorption, but the implied material-cost sensitivity (~RMB 4.8/kWh) is smaller than the RMB 6/kWh gap between InfoLink's and SMM's midpoints for the same 314 Ah product — absorption and non-arrival produce the same flat print. Separately: SMM withdraws its pack-level price series after August 28, and over 2.2 GW of US storage procurement is active with no public clearing price.
Lithium Carbonate +RMB 9/kg in Two Weeks; Cell Assessments Held Flat
Lithium carbonate rose RMB 9/kg over two weeks. LFP ESS cell assessments didn't move. The available read is cost absorption, but the implied material-cost sensitivity (~RMB 4.8/kWh) is smaller than the RMB 6/kWh gap between InfoLink's and SMM's midpoints for the same 314 Ah product — absorption and non-arrival produce the same flat print. Separately: SMM withdraws its pack-level price series after August 28, and over 2.2 GW of US storage procurement is active with no public clearing price.
Hidden Cost Layer
Fluence's June 30 10-Q discloses $396.3M in potential liquidated damages against $2.913B in minimum battery-cell purchase commitments. That LD-to-commitment ratio — approximately 13.6% — was ~7.9% at March 31. A 570-basis-point increase in one quarter. The FY2028 LD tranche ($122.8M) exceeds FY2027 ($111.6M), meaning penalty exposure is forward-loading, not amortizing. Separately, Fluence extended a $30M working-capital loan to an unnamed cell supplier in May and carries $84M in capacity-guarantee advances. Combined supplier financial support: $114M. Gross margin compressed to 5.1% from 14.8% YoY, attributed partly to rising battery prices. These commitments — LDs, advances, supplier credit — sit outside every cell-price benchmark but inside every procurement decision.
Source Access
