BNEF's December 2025 survey puts China average packs at $84/kWh, stationary storage packs at $70/kWh, lowest observed LFP storage cells at $36/kWh. InfoLink's spot series shows 314 Ah LFP storage cells averaging RMB 0.368/Wh (~$51/kWh) as of May 6, with a range of RMB 0.340–0.395/Wh. That is 22% above October 2025 levels and roughly 42% above the 2025 trough of RMB 0.26/Wh. Both numbers are real. They measure different objects at different points in the cost cycle: BNEF captures a full-year volume-weighted average, InfoLink a weekly spot read on a specific cell format from Chinese manufacturers. The error is treating both as "the China floor." The floor that matters to a procurement decision depends on what you're buying (ESS cell vs. EV-qualified pack), where it's going (EXW Changsha vs. CIF Rotterdam), and whether it clears qualification screens. One of those screens, GB38031-2025, takes effect for new vehicle type approvals in four days. As of the most recent public record, CATL alone has confirmed compliance.
The price ladder — same market, different floors
| What you're quoting | $/kWh | Source, date |
|---|---|---|
| Lowest observed LFP ESS cell | ~$36 | BNEF, Dec 2025 |
| CEEC 7 GWh low bid (≥314Ah) | $47 | ESS News, May 2026 |
| 314Ah spot avg (cell) | ~$51 | InfoLink, May 6 2026 |
| 2h DC ESS system avg | ~$68 | InfoLink, Apr 20 2026 |
| China avg pack | $84 | BNEF, Dec 2025 |
| North America avg pack | ~$121 | BNEF, Dec 2025 |
GB38031-2025 — July 1, 2026: Thermal runaway no-fire window extends from 5 min to 120 min for new type approvals. EV-qualified cell supply narrows to producers who pass. Estimated pack cost increase for producers requiring redesign: 10–20%.