U.S. announced battery capacity has to be read through four conditional layers before it maps to anything a procurement team can act on. Physical: built and producing at scale. Qualified: receivable by a specific buyer at spec. Compliant: documented through FEOC/PFE review. Economically viable: survives without 45X.
These layers are pulling apart. Application conversions reset qualification clocks. IEA estimated 50+ GWh reallocated from EV to ESS in 2025; a line switching chemistry and end-market requires a new qualification cycle before it counts as supply. JV restructurings alter ownership and application without updating federal loan records. No public registry tracks which facilities pass PFE material-assistance review under IRS Notice 2026-15.
E2's mid-2026 aggregate of 54 cancelled or downsized projects, representing $18.2B, is useful as rate-of-change evidence: it exceeds 2022 and 2023 combined. But E2 excludes delays and idlings unless investment decreased, and cannot distinguish a never-built greenfield from a restructured JV. Weather, not facility truth. Every entry that follows in this section applies all four layers.
Physical — Built and producing at scale? Most plants take 5+ years to approach nameplate; yields must exceed 90% (IEA). DOE conditional loan commitments ≠ closed loans ≠ disbursed funds.
Qualified — Can a specific buyer receive it at spec? EV→ESS line conversion resets chemistry, format, and customer qualification. 50+ GWh reallocated in 2025 is mid-cycle, not available supply.
Compliant — Documented through FEOC/PFE review? No public facility-level MACR registry exists. LFP cathode production remains almost entirely China-sourced. A non-Chinese supplier agreement signals direction, not MACR proof.
Economically viable — Survives current unit economics? LGES 2025 EBIT: approximately –$200M without U.S. credits. Korean maker utilization below 50%. NA pack prices 30%+ above China, gap widening.
E2 methodology note: Excludes delays and idlings unless production or investment decreased. Understates the full impaired population.