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Weekly Price Tape

Two lithium assessors printed opposite directions this week. InfoLink reversed to +2.1% WoW on 29 July after a sharp prior-week drop. SMM, two days later, came in at -2.05%. Both sit in the RMB 140,000–148,000/MT band. The trajectory disagreement is unresolved.

Below the input level, ESS and EV cells are splitting cleanly. InfoLink's large-format ESS assessment broke below RMB 0.370/Wh for the first time in the current series. SMM shows no confirmation, printing flat. EV cells moved the opposite way entirely over a wider window, firming 2–3% across formats. DC system pricing finally budged after a month of flat readings, though AC remains stuck. One aggressive tender award in Ningxia adds a data point on where suppliers are willing to push floors.

Weekly Price Tape

Two lithium assessors printed opposite directions this week. InfoLink reversed to +2.1% WoW on 29 July after a sharp prior-week drop. SMM, two days later, came in at -2.05%. Both sit in the RMB 140,000–148,000/MT band. The trajectory disagreement is unresolved.

Below the input level, ESS and EV cells are splitting cleanly. InfoLink's large-format ESS assessment broke below RMB 0.370/Wh for the first time in the current series. SMM shows no confirmation, printing flat. EV cells moved the opposite way entirely over a wider window, firming 2–3% across formats. DC system pricing finally budged after a month of flat readings, though AC remains stuck. One aggressive tender award in Ningxia adds a data point on where suppliers are willing to push floors.

Lithium Carbonate

InfoLink Lithium Reverses, Up 2.1% After Drop

Battery-grade carbonate at RMB 144,000/MT average on 29 July, +2.1% WoW (InfoLink). Prior week was -7.2%. Restocking around RMB 140,000 and stronger planned cell production schedules cited as support. Velocity: directional reversal inside two weeks, second derivative flipping positive.

Lithium Carbonate

SMM Lithium Points Down, Contradicts InfoLink Direction

SMM battery-grade carbonate at RMB 143,000/MT on 31 July, -2.05% from RMB 145,500 on 24 July. CIF CJK at $18,580/ton. Two-day timing gap with InfoLink partially explains the opposing prints, but the trajectory disagreement is genuine. Velocity: still declining on the SMM tape.

ESS Cells

InfoLink ESS Cells Crack Below RMB 0.370 Floor

280Ah and 314Ah LFP cells at RMB 0.360/Wh on 29 July, -2.7% WoW (InfoLink). First print below RMB 0.370 in the current series. Attributed to selective concessions on large-customer Q4 orders, not broad repricing. Velocity: new floor, accelerating on the downside.

ESS Divergence

SMM ESS Flat, No Confirmation of InfoLink Break

SMM 314Ah LFP at RMB 0.367/Wh on 31 July, flat. 280Ah at RMB 0.367, up RMB 0.002. That leaves a RMB 0.007 gap versus InfoLink's 0.360. Likely reflects different counterparty classes; concessions show up in key-account pricing before the broad tape moves. Velocity: stable on SMM, watch for lag confirmation.

EV Cells

EV Cells Firm While ESS Slides Since July

SMM EV readings on 31 July: LFP prismatic $52.10–$52.40/kWh, +2.4–2.9% from 10 July. NMC ternary $81.50–$94.00/kWh, +2.2–2.5%. Positive across all formats over the 21-day window. Application-level demand dynamics are overriding shared input costs. Velocity: gradual firming, opposite direction to ESS.

System Pricing

DC System Price Breaks Four Weeks of Flat

InfoLink DC 2-hour liquid-cooled system at RMB 0.490/Wh on 29 July, -1.0% WoW after four consecutive flat prints at RMB 0.500. AC systems unchanged across all durations. Cell-level concession pass-through running at roughly one-third pace. Velocity: first move in a month, shallow.

Tender Award

Huaneng Four-Hour Tender Clears at Aggressive Low

Guangzhou Zhiguang Storage won the Huaneng Ningxia 80MW/320MWh four-hour award at RMB 0.497/Wh, roughly 15% below competing bids of RMB 0.560–0.590. Near the Huadian 12GWh framework floor. Scope and warranty terms undisclosed. Read this as supplier behavior, not market clearing. Velocity: floor-testing bid, isolated.

The Velocity Synthesis

Cells Conceded RMB0.010/Wh; Carbonate Rose the Same Week

By Elise Huan-Cartwright— July 31, 2026

Feature image for article: Cells Conceded RMB0.010/Wh; Carbonate Rose the Same Week

InfoLink's 280/314Ah ESS-cell average came off the RMB0.370/Wh plateau this week, 2.7% WoW to RMB0.360. In the same assessment, the same house marked battery-grade carbonate up 2.1%. SMM's Friday tape did not follow, and EV prismatic printed the other way entirely.

So the concession did not come out of the cost stack. Below: why a purchase of Q4 utilization decays differently from a floor that dropped, the four observables that will tell you which of the two this was by late August, and a correction to how we have been labelling the period on SMM's change fields.

The Velocity Synthesis

Cells Conceded RMB0.010/Wh; Carbonate Rose the Same Week

By Elise Huan-Cartwright— July 31, 2026

InfoLink's 280/314Ah ESS-cell average came off the RMB0.370/Wh plateau this week, 2.7% WoW to RMB0.360. In the same assessment, the same house marked battery-grade carbonate up 2.1%. SMM's Friday tape did not follow, and EV prismatic printed the other way entirely.

So the concession did not come out of the cost stack. Below: why a purchase of Q4 utilization decays differently from a floor that dropped, the four observables that will tell you which of the two this was by late August, and a correction to how we have been labelling the period on SMM's change fields.

Quote Durability Check

Only One Korean Q2 Profit Survives Without 45X

All three Korean cell makers posted operating profit in Q2 2026. Ranked by headline: SK On KRW821.8B, Samsung SDI KRW203.8B, LGES KRW113.3B. Net of the US 45X production credit the ranking doesn't hold — and for one of the three it can't be recomputed at all.

LGES disclosed an ex-credit operating loss of KRW127.7B on KRW241B of incentive. Samsung SDI disclosed KRW96.1B of profit before its KRW107.7B credit. SK On disclosed neither its credit amount nor the size of the customer compensation an official there called one of "many one-time factors."

Only Samsung SDI's current quoting is demonstrably covered by operating economics. LGES's is covered by the credit, which puts 45X persistence into your supplier risk as well as theirs. SK On's cannot be assessed from public disclosure.

Quote Durability Check

Only One Korean Q2 Profit Survives Without 45X

All three Korean cell makers posted operating profit in Q2 2026. Ranked by headline: SK On KRW821.8B, Samsung SDI KRW203.8B, LGES KRW113.3B. Net of the US 45X production credit the ranking doesn't hold — and for one of the three it can't be recomputed at all.

LGES disclosed an ex-credit operating loss of KRW127.7B on KRW241B of incentive. Samsung SDI disclosed KRW96.1B of profit before its KRW107.7B credit. SK On disclosed neither its credit amount nor the size of the customer compensation an official there called one of "many one-time factors."

Only Samsung SDI's current quoting is demonstrably covered by operating economics. LGES's is covered by the credit, which puts 45X persistence into your supplier risk as well as theirs. SK On's cannot be assessed from public disclosure.

LGES — subsidy-covered. Reported +KRW113.3B; ex-credit −KRW127.7B. Improved KRW270B QoQ ex-credit, but quotes clear only with 45X intact. Inventory +KRW1.09T QoQ to KRW6.445T; watch whether ESS orders convert to shipments.

Samsung SDI — self-supporting. Only ex-subsidy profit of the three. UPS/BBU and prismatic ESS mix sits further from the cell-price cycle than pouch EV. Execution gate: prismatic LFP ramp at StarPlus Energy.

SK On — unassessable. Record KRW821.8B, credit and compensation both undisclosed. Durable piece is the ~KRW500B/yr saved from the Ford JV unwind (depreciation and interest), which doesn't reach cell-level cost.

Next quote cycle — ask for ex-credit unit economics by line, not blended.

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