The Docket | Human Stories

Climate Dispatch

As Bad As It Gets

By Ivy Marlowe— February 10, 2026

Feature image for article: As Bad As It Gets

Steven Siebert stood in front of San Antonio's Municipal Utilities Committee in May 2025 with charts showing the Edwards Aquifer at its lowest level in 35 years. This is about as bad as a drought can get, he told them. Four days earlier, the aquifer authority had declared Stage 5 restrictions for the first time in history. All 1,233 permit holders—farmers, utilities, industries—had to cut their water use by 44%.

Customer restrictions for San Antonio's 1.8 million people? Staying at Stage 3. No changes. Infrastructure had absorbed the worst drought in modern history so completely that nobody watering their lawn would feel it. Somewhere, those permit holders were making cuts.

Climate Dispatch

As Bad As It Gets

By Ivy Marlowe— February 10, 2026

Steven Siebert stood in front of San Antonio's Municipal Utilities Committee in May 2025 with charts showing the Edwards Aquifer at its lowest level in 35 years. This is about as bad as a drought can get, he told them. Four days earlier, the aquifer authority had declared Stage 5 restrictions for the first time in history. All 1,233 permit holders—farmers, utilities, industries—had to cut their water use by 44%.

Customer restrictions for San Antonio's 1.8 million people? Staying at Stage 3. No changes. Infrastructure had absorbed the worst drought in modern history so completely that nobody watering their lawn would feel it. Somewhere, those permit holders were making cuts.

Choosing Different Futures

Parallel Choices

The $30,000 Question

Median household income in Richland Parish, Louisiana: $30,000. Cotton gins that closed since 1990: seven out of eight. When Meta showed up promising 500 jobs and calling their data center transformational, nobody asked hard questions about the fine print. The facility will consume power equivalent to twice New Orleans. Local residents are paying $2 billion for the infrastructure. The parish needed what Meta promised. Meta got what they wanted. In 2030 we'll find out what transformational actually means.

Parallel Choices

Twelve Months to Figure It Out

The auditorium in Starke County, Indiana packed with hundreds last December. Not one person spoke in favor of data centers during two hours of public comment. Not one. The Planning Commission voted unanimously for a moratorium. The County Commissioners voted unanimously for a moratorium. Twelve months to study what saying yes would actually cost before they're locked in. Chicago developers and Amazon had been shopping around seven counties looking for the place desperate enough to accept their terms. Starke County gave themselves a year to figure it out.

Choosing Different Futures

Parallel Choices

The $30,000 Question

Median household income in Richland Parish, Louisiana: $30,000. Cotton gins that closed since 1990: seven out of eight. When Meta showed up promising 500 jobs and calling their data center transformational, nobody asked hard questions about the fine print. The facility will consume power equivalent to twice New Orleans. Local residents are paying $2 billion for the infrastructure. The parish needed what Meta promised. Meta got what they wanted. In 2030 we'll find out what transformational actually means.

Parallel Choices

Twelve Months to Figure It Out

The auditorium in Starke County, Indiana packed with hundreds last December. Not one person spoke in favor of data centers during two hours of public comment. Not one. The Planning Commission voted unanimously for a moratorium. The County Commissioners voted unanimously for a moratorium. Twelve months to study what saying yes would actually cost before they're locked in. Chicago developers and Amazon had been shopping around seven counties looking for the place desperate enough to accept their terms. Starke County gave themselves a year to figure it out.

Choosing Different Futures

Parallel Choices

The $30,000 Question

Median household income in Richland Parish, Louisiana: $30,000. Cotton gins that closed since 1990: seven out of eight. When Meta showed up promising 500 jobs and calling their data center transformational, nobody asked hard questions about the fine print. The facility will consume power equivalent to twice New Orleans. Local residents are paying $2 billion for the infrastructure. The parish needed what Meta promised. Meta got what they wanted. In 2030 we'll find out what transformational actually means.

Parallel Choices

Twelve Months to Figure It Out

The auditorium in Starke County, Indiana packed with hundreds last December. Not one person spoke in favor of data centers during two hours of public comment. Not one. The Planning Commission voted unanimously for a moratorium. The County Commissioners voted unanimously for a moratorium. Twelve months to study what saying yes would actually cost before they're locked in. Chicago developers and Amazon had been shopping around seven counties looking for the place desperate enough to accept their terms. Starke County gave themselves a year to figure it out.

This Week Climate Reality

Kipnuk Votes on Relocation from Evacuation Shelters

Rayna Paul calls tribal members in Bethel and Anchorage, asking them to vote on whether Kipnuk should exist anymore. Not in those words, but that's what the question means.

The Alaska Native village sits four miles inland from the Bering Sea. October's storm proved the distance meaningless. Homes destroyed, land contaminated, 700 residents evacuated. Four months later, most haven't returned. The tribe needs an answer within a week because construction season is short and disaster funding requires a direction.

Paul's team is reaching 900 eligible voters by phone. Kwigillingok already voted to relocate after the same storm. Kipnuk identified two sites near the historical settlement of Cheeching, but callers can propose alternatives. Nobody knows when results will come.

This Week Climate Reality

Kipnuk Votes on Relocation from Evacuation Shelters

Rayna Paul calls tribal members in Bethel and Anchorage, asking them to vote on whether Kipnuk should exist anymore. Not in those words, but that's what the question means.

The Alaska Native village sits four miles inland from the Bering Sea. October's storm proved the distance meaningless. Homes destroyed, land contaminated, 700 residents evacuated. Four months later, most haven't returned. The tribe needs an answer within a week because construction season is short and disaster funding requires a direction.

Paul's team is reaching 900 eligible voters by phone. Kwigillingok already voted to relocate after the same storm. Kipnuk identified two sites near the historical settlement of Cheeching, but callers can propose alternatives. Nobody knows when results will come.

TAKE NOTE

Voting mechanics: Phone-based process necessary because most residents remain evacuated four months post-disaster, fundamentally altering traditional tribal governance for permanent relocation decisions.

Timeline compression: Construction season and federal disaster funding timelines demand answers within weeks, conflicting with deliberative decision-making about where your village should exist.

Site uncertainty: Two locations identified near Cheeching, but voters can suggest alternatives during calls, meaning the actual destination remains undefined even as relocation vote proceeds.

Funding gaps: Federal government allocated $135 million for tribal relocation in 2025, but unclear whether Kipnuk qualifies or what happens if relocation costs exceed available funds.

Precedent pressure: Advisors hope Kipnuk and Kwigillingok demonstrate faster relocation than Newtok's decades-long process, but speed conflicts with community consensus-building about permanent displacement.

Return questions: Unclear whether choosing relocation means immediate permanent evacuation or phased transition, what happens to those who vote against majority decision, how land rights transfer.

Six Adaptation Experiments

States are trying to figure out flood resilience in real time, which means a lot of different experiments happening at once. Some are writing checks and hoping local governments know what to do with them. Others are changing the rules about development, which means telling people no. A few are trying to fund prevention instead of just cleaning up afterward.

None of these approaches is obviously right or wrong. They're just different bets about what might work given each state's particular mess of geography, politics, money, and how tired everyone is of watching the same places flood over and over. Here's what six states are trying.

Six Adaptation Experiments

States are trying to figure out flood resilience in real time, which means a lot of different experiments happening at once. Some are writing checks and hoping local governments know what to do with them. Others are changing the rules about development, which means telling people no. A few are trying to fund prevention instead of just cleaning up afterward.

None of these approaches is obviously right or wrong. They're just different bets about what might work given each state's particular mess of geography, politics, money, and how tired everyone is of watching the same places flood over and over. Here's what six states are trying.

State Grants

Florida Bets on Local Cost-Sharing

Florida's putting $150 million toward flood defense, but communities need to match half the cost unless they're broke enough to qualify for relief. Nearly every county is doing vulnerability assessments now. Wealthier places move faster. That's the tradeoff nobody mentions in the press releases.

Coastal Priority

Virginia Funds Places That Keep Flooding

Virginia's Community Flood Preparedness Fund targets areas with "certified recurrent flooding"—bureaucratic language for neighborhoods that flood repeatedly and everyone knows it. The money goes to both coastal and inland communities. Acknowledging the pattern is half the battle.

Development Rules

New Jersey Rewrites Where You Can Build

New Jersey finalized new development standards for flood zones, with coastal rules coming January 2026. This is the politically hard part: telling people they can't build where they want to build. Better-informed decisions means more nos. Early results pending.

Comprehensive Planning

Vermont Prices Out Its Resilience Dreams

Vermont released its first Resilience Implementation Strategy with actual numbers: $270 million one-time, $95 million annually. Most states skip the pricing part. Vermont's at least being honest about the gap between what they'd like to do and what they can afford.

Permanent Funding

Rhode Island Stops Scrambling After Disasters

Rhode Island created the Resilient Rhody Infrastructure Fund for stormwater, coastal erosion, floodproofing, urban green space. Permanent funding instead of post-disaster panic. Small state, but they're trying to break the cycle of waiting until something breaks to find money.

Pre-Disaster Investment

Wisconsin Pays Before the Flood Hits

Wisconsin's funding pre-disaster mitigation projects instead of just recovery. The logic is simple: spend money before homes flood rather than after. Whether communities actually use it for prevention or just check boxes for future federal aid remains to be seen.

Human Impact Developments

Flood Insurance Lapse Freezes Property Transactions

The National Flood Insurance Program needs Congressional reauthorization by January 30, 2026. During last fall's 43-day lapse, roughly 1,300 home sales stalled daily. Another lapse means existing policies continue but no new coverage issues, effectively making flood zone properties unsellable to anyone needing a mortgage.

Who gets stuck?

Buyers needing mortgages and sellers who can't close without providing flood coverage to purchasers.

How likely is another lapse?

Congress hasn't indicated whether reauthorization is actively moving or headed for another disruptive gap.

California Fire Code Raises Rebuild Costs Sharply

California's Wildland-Urban Interface Code took effect January 1, requiring fire-rated vents, all-electric heat pumps, and Level 2 EV chargers in new construction. Fewer than 12 of 13,000 destroyed Los Angeles homes have been rebuilt despite 2,600 permits issued. The code stays locked through 2031 under AB 306.

What does rebuilding cost now?

Significantly more through mandatory fire-hardening, full electrification, and EV infrastructure nobody asked for.

Can you wait it out?

Code remains stable through 2031, meaning these requirements govern all residential construction for five years.

High-Risk Homeowners Shift to Unregulated Coverage

Excess and Surplus insurance products now account for roughly 16% of policies in California, Florida, and Texas, up from under 2% in 2023. These unregulated policies carry higher premiums and fewer consumer protections but represent the only coverage option for homeowners standard insurers won't touch.

What are you trading?

Coverage that actually exists for significantly higher costs and zero guarantee of renewal next year.

Are options improving?

Average quotes increased 78% from 2024's low, but switching rates dropped as homeowners find fewer acceptable alternatives.

Insurers Require Roof Replacement Before Covering Homes

Average homeowner deductibles rose 22% in 2025. Insurers increasingly demand roof replacements for roofs over 10-15 years old before offering coverage, creating immediate expenses of $10,000-$30,000+ for homeowners trying to maintain insurability. Premiums now represent roughly 9% of typical monthly mortgage payments.

What's the bind?

Pay for expensive roof replacement before any disaster occurs or lose coverage and face dramatically higher premiums.

How are they deciding?

Insurers use AI-driven inspections, satellite imagery, and drone assessments to evaluate property-specific risk rather than broad assumptions.

Human Impact Developments

Flood Insurance Lapse Freezes Property Transactions

The National Flood Insurance Program needs Congressional reauthorization by January 30, 2026. During last fall's 43-day lapse, roughly 1,300 home sales stalled daily. Another lapse means existing policies continue but no new coverage issues, effectively making flood zone properties unsellable to anyone needing a mortgage.

Who gets stuck?

Buyers needing mortgages and sellers who can't close without providing flood coverage to purchasers.

How likely is another lapse?

Congress hasn't indicated whether reauthorization is actively moving or headed for another disruptive gap.

Human Impact Developments

California Fire Code Raises Rebuild Costs Sharply

California's Wildland-Urban Interface Code took effect January 1, requiring fire-rated vents, all-electric heat pumps, and Level 2 EV chargers in new construction. Fewer than 12 of 13,000 destroyed Los Angeles homes have been rebuilt despite 2,600 permits issued. The code stays locked through 2031 under AB 306.

What does rebuilding cost now?

Significantly more through mandatory fire-hardening, full electrification, and EV infrastructure nobody asked for.

Can you wait it out?

Code remains stable through 2031, meaning these requirements govern all residential construction for five years.

Human Impact Developments

High-Risk Homeowners Shift to Unregulated Coverage

Excess and Surplus insurance products now account for roughly 16% of policies in California, Florida, and Texas, up from under 2% in 2023. These unregulated policies carry higher premiums and fewer consumer protections but represent the only coverage option for homeowners standard insurers won't touch.

What are you trading?

Coverage that actually exists for significantly higher costs and zero guarantee of renewal next year.

Are options improving?

Average quotes increased 78% from 2024's low, but switching rates dropped as homeowners find fewer acceptable alternatives.

Human Impact Developments

Insurers Require Roof Replacement Before Covering Homes

Average homeowner deductibles rose 22% in 2025. Insurers increasingly demand roof replacements for roofs over 10-15 years old before offering coverage, creating immediate expenses of $10,000-$30,000+ for homeowners trying to maintain insurability. Premiums now represent roughly 9% of typical monthly mortgage payments.

What's the bind?

Pay for expensive roof replacement before any disaster occurs or lose coverage and face dramatically higher premiums.

How are they deciding?

Insurers use AI-driven inspections, satellite imagery, and drone assessments to evaluate property-specific risk rather than broad assumptions.