The Docket | Cascading Effects

The Bottleneck

Seventeen Homes Down, Six Thousand to Go

By Seth D. Carrington— March 24, 2026

Feature image for article: Seventeen Homes Down, Six Thousand to Go

North Carolina has a plan to rebuild the mountain homes Hurricane Helene destroyed eighteen months ago. It has a projected completion date, a budget, an application portal, seven contracted companies. Some of those contractors lost their own offices in the same storm. Some brought in from out of state carry legal histories that would make a procurement officer reach for his heart pills.

Thousands of families are in a queue. The queue has a pace. The next storm season does not care about the pace. And the arithmetic of who rebuilds, and when, and whether the hands to do the work even exist, is the whole of it.

The Bottleneck

Seventeen Homes Down, Six Thousand to Go

By Seth D. Carrington— March 24, 2026

North Carolina has a plan to rebuild the mountain homes Hurricane Helene destroyed eighteen months ago. It has a projected completion date, a budget, an application portal, seven contracted companies. Some of those contractors lost their own offices in the same storm. Some brought in from out of state carry legal histories that would make a procurement officer reach for his heart pills.

Thousands of families are in a queue. The queue has a pace. The next storm season does not care about the pace. And the arithmetic of who rebuilds, and when, and whether the hands to do the work even exist, is the whole of it.

The Execution Gap

Federal Disaster Money Keeps Flowing. The Workers to Spend It Don't Exist.

The SBA approved over $3 billion in disaster loans for Los Angeles wildfire survivors. A year later, fewer than 15 percent of destroyed homes have received rebuild permits, and roughly $600 million has actually been disbursed. Southern California's construction workforce was running at 98 percent capacity before the fires started.

With 710 open disasters still drawing federal support at the start of the 2025 hurricane season, every new catastrophe enters a labor queue that was already spoken for. Seventy-five percent of Texans report rebuilding challenges tied to skilled trade shortages. Immigration enforcement is thinning the available workforce further, particularly in framing and roofing. The federal recovery system was built on an assumption that approved dollars would find available hands. That assumption has quietly collapsed, and the communities with the least leverage are discovering it first.

The Execution Gap

Federal Disaster Money Keeps Flowing. The Workers to Spend It Don't Exist.

The SBA approved over $3 billion in disaster loans for Los Angeles wildfire survivors. A year later, fewer than 15 percent of destroyed homes have received rebuild permits, and roughly $600 million has actually been disbursed. Southern California's construction workforce was running at 98 percent capacity before the fires started.

With 710 open disasters still drawing federal support at the start of the 2025 hurricane season, every new catastrophe enters a labor queue that was already spoken for. Seventy-five percent of Texans report rebuilding challenges tied to skilled trade shortages. Immigration enforcement is thinning the available workforce further, particularly in framing and roofing. The federal recovery system was built on an assumption that approved dollars would find available hands. That assumption has quietly collapsed, and the communities with the least leverage are discovering it first.

Rebuild timelines: Federal housing reconstruction averages 3.5 to 5.9 years under normal conditions, per Urban Institute analysis of ten major disasters

Staffing losses: FEMA shed 2,446 employees between January and June 2025, with thousands of temporary disaster workers facing contract expirations in 2026

Small towns last: Lower-capacity communities lack contractor networks and staff to navigate the 30-plus federal agencies involved in recovery

Mitigation gap: Pre-disaster spending saves six dollars per dollar invested, but 42 governor requests for hazard mitigation grants sit unapproved

Application backlog: Nearly 500,000 FEMA applications required escalation by December 2024, many misrouted by undertrained surge staff pulled from other disasters

The Labor Shortage

Every climate adaptation plan runs on the same assumption: that someone will show up to build it. The flood walls, the fire-hardened retrofits, the neighborhoods rebuilt to new codes. All of it requires construction workers. And the workforce to do the work does not exist at the scale the moment demands.

This week we mapped the gap from five angles. What emerges is a system where demand accelerates with every wildfire season and hurricane landfall while the labor pipeline feeds in at a trickle. The people caught inside that gap are homeowners in Altadena staring at empty lots, apprentices still years from journeyman status, and aging tradespeople in Maine and Alaska whose retirements will leave holes nobody has a plan to fill.

The Labor Shortage

Every climate adaptation plan runs on the same assumption: that someone will show up to build it. The flood walls, the fire-hardened retrofits, the neighborhoods rebuilt to new codes. All of it requires construction workers. And the workforce to do the work does not exist at the scale the moment demands.

This week we mapped the gap from five angles. What emerges is a system where demand accelerates with every wildfire season and hurricane landfall while the labor pipeline feeds in at a trickle. The people caught inside that gap are homeowners in Altadena staring at empty lots, apprentices still years from journeyman status, and aging tradespeople in Maine and Alaska whose retirements will leave holes nobody has a plan to fill.

Labor Gap

Construction Needs 723,000 Workers. It's Getting 68,000.

NAHB analysis of BLS data puts the annual need at roughly 723,000 new construction workers to cover departures and rising demand. New residential hiring in mid-2024 averaged about 5,667 per month. Annualized, that's 68,000. Do the math and then look at your permit timeline.

Aging Workforce

One in Five Construction Workers Nears Retirement

The median construction worker is 42, per the 2023 American Community Survey. More than 20% are 55 or older. The oldest workforces sit in Alaska, Connecticut, and Maine, states where climate adaptation work is accelerating just as the people who know how to do it are leaving.

Training Pipeline

Apprenticeships Are Growing. The Shortage Grows Faster.

Construction apprenticeships hit 451,000 in 2024, a 22% jump over five years. Sounds encouraging until you learn most programs take three to five years, and total completions across all industries reached just 112,000 in fiscal year 2024. The pipeline exists. It's a garden hose pointed at a structure fire.

Disaster Demand

LA Fire Zones: 16,000 Structures Gone, Rebuilding Crawls

Sixteen thousand structures destroyed. Fewer than one in five Altadena burn lots have received rebuild permits. LA construction costs climbed nearly 6% in 2024, materials up 3.5% year-over-year. More than 70% of displaced residents still can't go home. The bottleneck isn't willpower. It's hands.

Structural Mismatch

Licensing Walls Block Workers Where Disasters Hit

California's contractor licensing requirements legally bar most out-of-state workers from responding to disaster surges. The LA fires wiped out roughly two years of the city's normal housing construction output in a week. "We are not going to find 10,000 contractors overnight," a Sonoma County builder told The Real Deal.

Further Reading

Why Almost None of the Homes Burned in LA Have Been Rebuilt Since Last Year's Fires28 homes rebuilt out of 13,000 destroyed. Tariffs and immigration enforcement are compounding the contractor shortage in real time.

As Helene Survivors Wait for Help, Victims of Earlier Hurricanes Are Still Out of Their HomesOver 1,000 North Carolina homes from prior storms remain unfinished. Helene's rebuild queue starts behind an existing one.

Quick links

Half a Million Workers Short: The Construction Workforce Crisis Reshaping Every Project Timeline

Heat Pumps Keep Outselling Gas Furnaces — But Finding Someone to Install One Is Another Story

Solar Installers Are Sold Out Through 2026 as Module Shortages and Policy Whiplash Collide

Why Disaster Recovery Takes Years, Not Months: What 88 Federal Aid Grants Reveal

What Adaptation Costs

The financial landscape for home adaptation shifted hard at the start of this year. Federal clean energy tax credits expired under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. The largest pre-disaster mitigation program was killed, then court-ordered back to life, then left in bureaucratic purgatory. The math on several common upgrades changed overnight, and most people haven't caught up yet.

We compiled these reference cards because adaptation costs are genuinely difficult to pin down. They vary by region, foundation type, whether your state still funds rebates, and whether the contractor shortage in your area has eased or gotten worse. What follows are documented ranges and current timelines, sourced where possible from FEMA and industry data.

These are not recommendations. They're the numbers we wish someone had handed us before we started making phone calls.

What Adaptation Costs

The financial landscape for home adaptation shifted hard at the start of this year. Federal clean energy tax credits expired under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. The largest pre-disaster mitigation program was killed, then court-ordered back to life, then left in bureaucratic purgatory. The math on several common upgrades changed overnight, and most people haven't caught up yet.

We compiled these reference cards because adaptation costs are genuinely difficult to pin down. They vary by region, foundation type, whether your state still funds rebates, and whether the contractor shortage in your area has eased or gotten worse. What follows are documented ranges and current timelines, sourced where possible from FEMA and industry data.

These are not recommendations. They're the numbers we wish someone had handed us before we started making phone calls.

Flood Zones

Lifting a House Costs What You Fear

FEMA considers elevation the single most effective permanent flood fix. It runs $20,000 to north of $100,000, with slab-on-grade foundations at the painful end. You'll need an elevation certificate first ($400–$700). Construction alone takes months to over a year. If you're applying for a federal mitigation grant, add 18 to 36 months of waiting, assuming the program still exists when your number comes up.

Clean Energy

Heat Pumps Just Got More Expensive to Justify

Installed cost: roughly $10,000–$14,000 depending on region and home size. The federal tax credits that softened that number (Sections 25C and 25D) are gone as of 2026 under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. Some states still help. Massachusetts offers up to $8,500, Rhode Island up to $18,000 for income-eligible households. Geothermal is the lone heat pump technology still carrying a 30% federal credit.

Wildfire Hardening

A Fire-Rated Roof Costs More in California

Class A fire-rated roof replacement runs $8,000–$25,000 nationally, with most homeowners paying $12,000–$16,000. In California, stricter codes and labor costs push that 15–25% higher. In Los Angeles specifically: $18,000–$30,000 or more. California's "Safer from Wildfires" program offers insurance discounts up to 14.5%, though one industry expert called the savings "immaterial" for homes outside designated very high fire hazard zones.

Backup Power

Generators and Batteries: No Tax Credits Left