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The Appraisal

Appraisal of the American West

By David Kern— April 8, 2026

Feature image for article: Appraisal of the American West

A real estate appraisal has one job. Produce a number. The form has a field for it, the lender needs it, the bond market prices against it. Every standard template in the industry assumes the same thing: that conditions are stable enough to write a figure down.

Lake Powell sits two feet above the elevation where Glen Canyon Dam stops generating power. Snowpack in the South Platte Basin is at four percent of normal. The operating guidelines governing the Colorado River expire December 31 with no replacement finalized. Somewhere a competent appraiser is filling out the form. The form has questions. The data has answers. The two don't fit.

The Appraisal

Appraisal of the American West

A real estate appraisal has one job. Produce a number. The form has a field for it, the lender needs it, the bond market prices against it. Every standard template in the industry assumes the same thing: that conditions are stable enough to write a figure down.

Lake Powell sits two feet above the elevation where Glen Canyon Dam stops generating power. Snowpack in the South Platte Basin is at four percent of normal. The operating guidelines governing the Colorado River expire December 31 with no replacement finalized. Somewhere a competent appraiser is filling out the form. The form has questions. The data has answers. The two don't fit.

David Kern

Fiction writer and commercial pilot known for emotionally honest stories about grief, hope, and ordinary people managing loss. His plain-spoken style has made him widely considered the best writer of his generation.

Comparable Sales

Comparable Sales: A Water Appraisal

By David Kern— April 8, 2026

Feature image for article: Comparable Sales: A Water Appraisal

In 1922, seven states divided a river. They measured its flow during what tree-ring records would later identify as the wettest period in at least 450 years. The number went into the agreement. The agreement went into law. Nobody revised the measurement.

What follows is formatted like any appraisal you'd order on a house. The subject property serves forty million people.

Comparable Sales

Comparable Sales: A Water Appraisal

By David Kern— April 8, 2026

In 1922, seven states divided a river. They measured its flow during what tree-ring records would later identify as the wettest period in at least 450 years. The number went into the agreement. The agreement went into law. Nobody revised the measurement.

What follows is formatted like any appraisal you'd order on a house. The subject property serves forty million people.

The Appraiser

The Appraiser Who Keeps Signing the Form

The Appraiser

The Appraiser Who Keeps Signing the Form

Condition Report

Property Condition Report: Subject Property, Western United States — Multiple System Deficiencies Noted

SUBJECT PROPERTY: The American West (approx. 1.2 million sq. mi.). INSPECTION DATE: April 8, 2026. TYPE: Routine pre-season assessment. INSPECTOR ID: [REDACTED]. CLIENT: Occupants (est. 80 million).

SUMMARY OF FINDINGS: Five of five major systems rated DEFICIENT. Zero systems rated SERVICEABLE. Conditions observed are consistent with deferred maintenance across all categories. Several deficiencies have progressed beyond remediation under standard timelines. Report filed for the record. No party has requested follow-up.

Condition Report

Property Condition Report: Subject Property, Western United States — Multiple System Deficiencies Noted

SUBJECT PROPERTY: The American West (approx. 1.2 million sq. mi.). INSPECTION DATE: April 8, 2026. TYPE: Routine pre-season assessment. INSPECTOR ID: [REDACTED]. CLIENT: Occupants (est. 80 million).

SUMMARY OF FINDINGS: Five of five major systems rated DEFICIENT. Zero systems rated SERVICEABLE. Conditions observed are consistent with deferred maintenance across all categories. Several deficiencies have progressed beyond remediation under standard timelines. Report filed for the record. No party has requested follow-up.

TAKE NOTE

Water supply: Snow water equivalent 65% below 1991–2020 median across Western basin. Eight states at record lows. California snowpack measured at 18% of average; Phillips Station survey site returned no measurable snow. Lake Powell at 25% live capacity. April–July inflow forecast: 27% of normal. Denver Water restrictions issued, first since 2013. SEVERITY: Critical. ACTION: Immediate attention required.

Electrical/power: Glen Canyon Dam projected to fall 1.61 feet below minimum power pool elevation by December 2026 per Bureau of Reclamation most-probable-case forecast. Generation capacity cannot be confirmed beyond current season. SEVERITY: Critical. ACTION: Immediate attention required. See attached hydrology appendix.

Fire protection: Acres burned through March 2026 at 231% of ten-year average. Four Corners snowmelt observed four to six weeks ahead of earliest previously recorded dates. Fuel moisture readings consistent with late-July conditions. SEVERITY: Critical. ACTION: Immediate attention required.

Thermal baseline: March 2026 heat event produced approximately 7,000 daily temperature records. Phoenix recorded 105°F, earliest triple-digit reading in 131 years of continuous measurement. World Weather Attribution analysis found event virtually impossible absent anthropogenic warming. Likelihood increase factor: approximately 800. SEVERITY: Deficient. ACTION: Monitoring. Note: no thermostat located on premises.

Emergency egress: FEMA entered 2025 hurricane season at 12% incident management staffing capacity. Draft proposals indicate 85% reduction to surge workforce. No permanent administrator nominated as of inspection date. SEVERITY: Critical. ACTION: Immediate attention required. Note: inspector unable to confirm existence of responsible party.

Valuation Summary

We appraised the Western United States this week. Not its markets. Its habitability. The snowpack, the firefighters, the dam turbines, the people who show up after the disaster. We used the language of property valuation because that's the language America uses to decide what something is worth, and because the form fit the findings with an ease that should disturb everyone involved.

Five features. Five systems. Each degrading on its own schedule while compounding every other. The appraiser's job is to note the condition, not to fix the roof. But the appraiser is also obligated to flag when the structure no longer supports the use for which it was designed. Consider this that flag.

Here's the walk-through.

Valuation Summary

We appraised the Western United States this week. Not its markets. Its habitability. The snowpack, the firefighters, the dam turbines, the people who show up after the disaster. We used the language of property valuation because that's the language America uses to decide what something is worth, and because the form fit the findings with an ease that should disturb everyone involved.

Five features. Five systems. Each degrading on its own schedule while compounding every other. The appraiser's job is to note the condition, not to fix the roof. But the appraiser is also obligated to flag when the structure no longer supports the use for which it was designed. Consider this that flag.

Here's the walk-through.

Water Supply

Snow Water Equivalent at Historic Low, Declining

Assessed condition: critical. Western snowpack 65% below 1991–2020 normal as of April 1. Lowest on record. Colorado at 22% of historic median. Functional obsolescence: seasonal hydrograph no longer delivers supply to peak demand window. Remaining useful life: drought forecast through June. Appraiser notes the 1991–2020 "normal" itself incorporated decline.

Fire Capacity

Suppression Infrastructure Cannot Match Current Ignition Rate

Assessed condition: structurally impaired. 1.6 million acres burned through March, 231% of ten-year average. USFS has lost 16% of staff since end of 2024. Functional obsolescence: fire season now exceeds suppression workforce by design, not by accident. Remaining useful life: every western state rated above-normal wildfire risk through summer. No off-season observed.

Emergency Response

Disaster Workforce Facing Proposed Fifty Percent Reduction

Assessed condition: pre-failure. FEMA CORE workforce contracts expiring for several thousand disaster responders in 2026. Agency already 6,000 employees below need per GAO assessment. Functional obsolescence: proposed 50% workforce reduction coincides with period of increasing disaster frequency. Remaining useful life: contingent on staffing decisions not yet made. Appraiser cannot appraise what may not exist at time of closing.

Power Generation

Glen Canyon Dam Approaching Minimum Power Pool

Assessed condition: failing. Lake Powell at approximately 25% capacity. Spring inflow projected at 38% of average. Functional obsolescence: Bureau of Reclamation forecasts reservoir drops below 3,490 feet, minimum power pool elevation, by December 2026. Remaining useful life: five million customers served by a turbine that requires water the appraisal has already noted is not arriving.

Climate Trajectory

Super El Niño Forming, Compounding Existing Baseline Warming

Assessed condition: accelerating. NOAA projects 62% chance of El Niño by June–August 2026. ECMWF ensemble unanimously forecasts moderate-to-strong event by mid-June. Functional obsolescence: each successive El Niño cycle compounds a warming baseline that has itself compounded since the last one. Remaining useful life: 2026 or 2027 projected warmest year on record. Previous record: 2024. Before that: 2023.