The Count
A Cassin's auklet fits entirely in a gloved hand. Alive, it weighs two hundred grams. Dead and starved, it barely dents wet sand. Along the Central California coast, trained volunteers walk measured transects each month, counting what washes ashore. They record species, decomposition state, the presence or absence of oil. A zero is data too. Most months, a zero is what they get.
One morning in July 2026, a volunteer walks her segment at Zmudowski Beach and the data form fills before she reaches the midpoint. She crouches, and crouches, and crouches.
The Count
A Cassin's auklet fits entirely in a gloved hand. Alive, it weighs two hundred grams. Dead and starved, it barely dents wet sand. Along the Central California coast, trained volunteers walk measured transects each month, counting what washes ashore. They record species, decomposition state, the presence or absence of oil. A zero is data too. Most months, a zero is what they get.
One morning in July 2026, a volunteer walks her segment at Zmudowski Beach and the data form fills before she reaches the midpoint. She crouches, and crouches, and crouches.
Good Day
The water off Bodega Bay runs in the low fifties in July. Cold enough to seize your chest, send kids back to the blanket after three minutes with white skin and chattering teeth. That's the Northern California coast in summer. Fog so thick you lose the headlands by noon. Rocks packed with murres. Kelp piled knee-deep at the tideline, dark and reeking. You pack sweatshirts for the Fourth of July. You always have.
A family drives out for the same trip they've been making for years. It's 2027. The kids have a perfect day. The parents watch them have it.
Good Day
The water off Bodega Bay runs in the low fifties in July. Cold enough to seize your chest, send kids back to the blanket after three minutes with white skin and chattering teeth. That's the Northern California coast in summer. Fog so thick you lose the headlands by noon. Rocks packed with murres. Kelp piled knee-deep at the tideline, dark and reeking. You pack sweatshirts for the Fourth of July. You always have.
A family drives out for the same trip they've been making for years. It's 2027. The kids have a perfect day. The parents watch them have it.
The Forecast
CDIP/CeNCOOS Combined Marine Forecast — Updated 0430 PDT Mon July 14
WNW ground swell 310° holding through Wed, 14–16s periods. Buoy 46042 reading 5.2 ft @ 15s. Chest-to-shoulder on west-facing exposures, waist high south-facing. Onshore wind swell fills in Tue afternoon, expect surface chop by noon.
Tides (Monterey): 4.8 ft high 0618 / 0.3 ft low 1247 / 5.1 ft high 1934.
Water temp 67.4°F Morro Bay, 65.9°F Monterey. MHW Status: Cat III (Severe), wk 34. Full-suit recommendation suspended thru Oct per seasonal advisory.
The Water
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