The Reshoring Initiative logged 244,940 jobs across 1,412 cases announced in 2024 from reshoring and FDI. That is roughly four announcements per working day, each carrying a round investment figure, a round job number, and a governor's quote. The power draw, the wastewater load, the incentive floor that triggers clawback are in the filing, not the release.

The gap is not rhetorical. When KTH announced its Seguin, Texas plant on July 8, 2026, the official figure was $100 million and 170 jobs. The Chapter 380 agreement posted to Legistar the day before showed the performance floor. The SABJ reported $127 million and 173 jobs. The $100 million is the contractual minimum triggering incentive eligibility, not the project capital commitment. Avio's Pittsylvania County deal moved from $500 million and 1,000 jobs in February to $537 million and 1,500 jobs in April as enabling legislation advanced. The original release was never corrected.

The announcement tells you three things reliably: a company has committed to a location, the general scale, and which local authority's document trail to open. Everything operational lives in those filings.

Natron Energy's $1.4B sodium-ion battery gigafactory at the Kingsboro megasite in Edgecombe County, NC, was announced August 15, 2024. More than 1,000 jobs. Average salary of $64,071. A JDIG authorization of up to $21.7M over 12 years. An anticipated Megasite Readiness Program grant of up to $30M to Edgecombe County for site preparation. Thirteen months later, the company ceased all operations.

Zero state dollars were disbursed. The JDIG required verified job creation and investment targets before any payment. Those targets were never approached. The Megasite Readiness funds, awarded to the county rather than the company, had not cleared final approvals.

Between announcement and collapse, none of the intermediate steps materialized: no financing close, no construction permit, no site work at Kingsboro, no revised performance metrics. Natron's Michigan facility had opened only in April 2024, four months before the company announced a 40x capacity expansion in North Carolina. By August 27, 2025, the board determined fundraising efforts had failed.

North Carolina's incentive architecture worked exactly as designed. The deal never crossed a single checkpoint that would have triggered a payment. For ED directors evaluating announced projects in their own markets, the Natron sequence is a clean illustration of why performance-gated structures protect public dollars even when the company collapses.

Press releases announce intent. Public records show whether it converts to construction. Three record types carry the signal.

Performance agreement amendments come first. When a RIFA or IDA board revises job counts, wage floors, or investment phasing, the project has moved past the announcement stage into an operating model. Microporous's amended agreement shifted jobs to 1,832, wages to $60,995, investment to $1.35B as financing closed. Round numbers replaced by specific ones.

Building permits follow. They require engineering drawings and site control. Natron's Kingsboro project produced none in 13 months.

Utility capacity reservations are the hardest to find and the most reliable. Large-load applications specify actual MW or MGD, carry study fees, and lock in 10-year minimums. No company files one without committed capital behind it.

When all three cluster within weeks, the deal is executing. Six months without any of them appearing is a finding too.