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Disposition Data Gap
Eight pre-deal positioning moves across six states this month. Two spec building plays receive full financing-structure analysis in this issue's feature; the Rockford and Paducah cards below carry factual baselines only.
The remaining six cards cover a substation with an unresolved completion date in Brownsville, a staged water-then-sewer approach in Rome, a revolving state investment converting raw land in Lafourche Parish, a four-jurisdiction sewer coalition working a 1,000-plus-acre cross-county site in Burke and Caldwell counties, a community college manufacturing center opening with first-cohort seats in Elgin, and a technology-adoption grant program entering year two with conflicting source data in Catawba County.
Eight pre-deal positioning moves across six states this month. Two spec building plays receive full financing-structure analysis in this issue's feature; the Rockford and Paducah cards below carry factual baselines only.
The remaining six cards cover a substation with an unresolved completion date in Brownsville, a staged water-then-sewer approach in Rome, a revolving state investment converting raw land in Lafourche Parish, a four-jurisdiction sewer coalition working a 1,000-plus-acre cross-county site in Burke and Caldwell counties, a community college manufacturing center opening with first-cohort seats in Elgin, and a technology-adoption grant program entering year two with conflicting source data in Catawba County.
Rockford's 334,800-square-foot spec building near Chicago Rockford International Airport now has partial specifications on the broker listing: 36-foot clear height, 33 dock doors, 3,000-amp service. What is published describes a Class A distribution shell. What is still missing — floor loading, slab thickness, power density, suppression design — is what any manufacturing prospect needs answered before it schedules a tour. Hillwood carries the construction risk and specifies the building; the city transferred both in one agreement. Paducah's GO-bond structure keeps that authority public and brings its own constraints. In each case the financing choice set the tenant range.
Rockford's 334,800-square-foot spec building near Chicago Rockford International Airport now has partial specifications on the broker listing: 36-foot clear height, 33 dock doors, 3,000-amp service. What is published describes a Class A distribution shell. What is still missing — floor loading, slab thickness, power density, suppression design — is what any manufacturing prospect needs answered before it schedules a tour. Hillwood carries the construction risk and specifies the building; the city transferred both in one agreement. Paducah's GO-bond structure keeps that authority public and brings its own constraints. In each case the financing choice set the tenant range.
Cities pledging GO credit for speculative industrial buildings are taking absorption risk they have no public data to price. The metrics that should inform the underwriting — time from CO to first occupancy, holding costs during vacancy, sale price relative to development cost, concessions required to close — are not tracked at the program level by any state.
Kentucky's Product Development Initiative is the most documented state spec building program. Its July 2025 legislative presentation reports 116 projects approved, 35 with a company located or announced. Status of the remaining 81 is undisclosed. KPDI tracks approvals and disbursements but not disposition outcomes.
GFOA recommends periodic evaluation of individual project performance including cumulative costs and benefits. No state spec building program reports at that level. A finance director evaluating a GO-backed spec building has no comparable-outcome data from the very program that funded site prep to inform the recommendation.
Cities pledging GO credit for speculative industrial buildings are taking absorption risk they have no public data to price. The metrics that should inform the underwriting — time from CO to first occupancy, holding costs during vacancy, sale price relative to development cost, concessions required to close — are not tracked at the program level by any state.
Kentucky's Product Development Initiative is the most documented state spec building program. Its July 2025 legislative presentation reports 116 projects approved, 35 with a company located or announced. Status of the remaining 81 is undisclosed. KPDI tracks approvals and disbursements but not disposition outcomes.
GFOA recommends periodic evaluation of individual project performance including cumulative costs and benefits. No state spec building program reports at that level. A finance director evaluating a GO-backed spec building has no comparable-outcome data from the very program that funded site prep to inform the recommendation.
Questions for the authorization vote:
If the state program cannot produce these figures from its own records, the council is approving without disposition-level data from comparable projects.
