US battery supply models for 2027 still sort capacity into three bins: operational, announced, cancelled. The actual registry requires more. Ford Energy Kentucky is built, retooling, workforce-zeroed, targeting first BESS deliveries late 2027. Samsung StarPlus is producing NCA EV cells while converting lines to LFP ESS, mass production targeted Q4 2026, its JV partner publicly exploring exit. LGES Lansing has a $4.3 billion Tesla supply agreement for LFP prismatic cells whose production lines are not yet commissioned. SK Commerce is operational with 37% of its workforce laid off. KORE and FREYR never broke ground.
Six facilities, six distinct proof states, each carrying different weight for anyone modeling contractable domestic supply in the 2027 window. This issue examines three layers of that fragmentation: the Ford Energy conversion and what its DOE loan language actually establishes, the converting-facility pattern where chemistry and application shift beneath existing roofs, and the stress and cancellation signals that standard trackers compress into a single status label. Planning risk concentrates in the gap between "built" and "usable," and that gap is wider than most capacity aggregates acknowledge.
Ford Energy KY — Built, retooling. No commercial output. Late-2027 delivery target. $3.8B DOE note assumed from dissolved BlueOval SK JV.
Samsung StarPlus, IN — Producing (NCA EV). Converting lines to LFP ESS. Stellantis exploring JV exit; no resolution disclosed.
LGES Lansing, MI — Existing plant, new LFP prismatic lines planned for Tesla. Named customer and chemistry. 2027 production target. Lines not yet established.
SK Commerce, GA — Operational, stressed. 958 workers laid off (WARN-filed, March 2026). "Pursuing" BESS customers. No confirmed conversion.
KORE Power, AZ — Cancelled. DOE conditional commitment never closed. No construction.
FREYR, GA — Abandoned pre-construction. 368-acre site untouched.
Common gap across all six: No public 45X credit claim data. No public MACR evidence. No facility has a complete proof file as of July 10, 2026.