The snow came, and it melted. It came, and it melted. Ken Curtis, general manager of the Dolores Water Conservancy District, stood before the Cortez City Council on May 1 and described what winter looked like below 9,000 feet in southwestern Colorado. Nothing stayed. By April 1, snowpack across the basin had dropped to roughly 5% of average. The Dolores River was running at 23% of normal flow. The May–July inflow forecast for McPhee Reservoir: 17% of median.
Curtis is a farmer who runs numbers for 63,000 irrigated acres in Montezuma and Dolores Counties. The numbers he brought to his board on April 10 translated the snowpack into something families can feel: full-service farmers on the Dolores Project will receive approximately 3 inches of water out of the 22 inches a fully stocked year provides. Fourteen percent. The Ute Mountain Ute Farm and Ranch, which holds a 24,517 acre-foot allocation under the Colorado Ute Indian Water Rights Settlement Act, faces a similar range. The Montezuma Valley Irrigation Company, holding senior rights on the Dolores River, is estimated at 60%.
Colorado's prior appropriation doctrine says first in time, first in right. Under stress, the doctrine does what it was always going to do: 60% for senior rights holders, 14% for junior ones. The design itself distributes pain downward.
Splitting what's left
At that April board meeting, the question was 770 acre-feet. Extra water, found somewhere in the system, to be divided between the Ute Farm and northern full-service farmers. The vote tied 3-3. Simon Martinez, general manager of the Ute Mountain Ute Tribe Farm and Ranch Enterprises, told the board his operation has "thousands of acres to cultivate but water for only a portion." Board President Godwin Oliver suggested the tribe had "flexibility" through leasing options that individual farmers didn't. Board member Don Schwindt pushed back: "We are in a tough place, and I think this three-legged stool is very important to save this community in a tough year."
They split it. 385 acre-feet each.
One board member said, "It's gonna be ugly." Another responded, "It will be OK." Curtis called the allocation picture "a moving target," with final numbers not expected until late June or July. He also said the district could run out of water by midsummer.
"I worry about our younger farmers. The revenue doesn't match the billing." — Ken Curtis, Dolores Water Conservancy District
Governance at the end of a canal looks like this: people in a room dividing water that barely exists, knowing the real decisions are being made somewhere else entirely.
The deal that doesn't include them
About a hundred miles northeast of Cortez, Steve Pope manages the Uncompahgre Valley Water Users Association out of Montrose. The UVWUA is the largest irrigation system in the Upper Colorado Basin: 3,500 shareholders, 720 miles of canals, 80,000 irrigated acres generating $140 million in economic impact. Pope started 2026 at 50% allocation, with projections dropping to 40%. Last fall, his farmers received 30%. Because the UVWUA operates through the Gunnison Tunnel, a federal Bureau of Reclamation project, Pope's system sits closer to federal control than purely state-decreed private ditches. His 3,500 shareholders hold some of the oldest water rights on the Western Slope, dating to 1890. Those rights increasingly represent water that doesn't physically arrive.
Pope spent 25 years at the Colorado Division of Water Resources before taking this job. He describes himself as someone who deals with "wet water" instead of "paper water." The gap between those two widens every year.
On May 1, Arizona, California, and Nevada submitted a bridge proposal to the Department of the Interior: at least 3.2 million acre-feet in water contributions through 2028. The first 700,000 to 1 million acre-feet in conservation savings are distributed by state: Arizona 300,000 acre-feet, California 300,000, Nevada 100,000. Arizona's total annual share: 760,000 acre-feet. Arizona officials described what that looks like: "farmers fallowing fields, tighter restrictions on landscaping, watering." The Lower Basin states submitted it as an integrated package, requiring legislative and board approvals that haven't happened yet.
Colorado, Utah, Wyoming, and New Mexico are not parties to it.
Chuck Cullom, executive director of the Upper Colorado River Commission, called the proposal "insufficient," saying it "continues a crisis cycle." The Upper Basin called for mediation. As of May 7, no mediator had been appointed. The Environmental Defense Fund noted that the deal "preserves legal accountability under the Colorado River Compact, including Upper Basin delivery obligations." Put plainly: the Upper Basin's exposure to a compact call remains untouched.
The deal buys time for Phoenix's municipal bonds and Tucson's aquifer storage. For Las Vegas's recycling infrastructure. It buys nothing for Yuma's irrigators, or the Gila River Indian Community's agricultural operations, or Cortez. The priority ordering the deal reveals runs along lines more specific than cities versus farms. Which uses, in which states, with which political leverage, get defended first.
The math underneath
The 1922 Compact and subsequent agreements allocated 16.5 million acre-feet annually across the basins and Mexico. The river's actual average over the past two decades is closer to 12 million.
The Compact itself doesn't expire, but the 2007 Interim Guidelines governing reservoir operations expire October 1, 2026. Without new rules, the Secretary of the Interior would make unilateral decisions, subject to immediate litigation. Lake Powell holds 5.6 million acre-feet out of 24 million capacity and is forecast to receive 13% of normal spring runoff, the lowest on record.
The scenario that keeps Western Slope managers awake: a compact call. If flows at Lee's Ferry drop below the Upper Basin's delivery obligation, Colorado could be forced to curtail diversions regardless of internal seniority. A state water resources specialist testified that Colorado "doesn't have regulations to say who cuts back, where the water comes from, when cuts happen or how it would track the water."
There are approximately 2,800 unmeasured diversions on Western Slope rivers and streams. Colorado lacks the data infrastructure to administer a call it has never faced. The state doesn't know, with precision, how much water is being taken or by whom.
Pope put the redistribution question plainly: the economic pain from water cuts "can't just hit one industry. It needs to spread across the state somehow." He called it "the million-dollar question."
Curtis, standing before the council, offered a smaller observation. The cool spring weather had been a mercy. "The farmers are turning on," he said, "but the cool and somewhat wet weather is being a little bit helpful for the start of the season."
A little bit helpful. For the start. The compact renegotiation will determine the legal architecture of western water for decades. Curtis and Pope and Martinez will not be at that table. The 1922 Compact was negotiated without tribal nations. The 2026 bridge deal was negotiated without them, too. That exclusion, reproduced across 104 years, is its own story, one that Martinez's presence at a local board meeting in Cortez cannot resolve. The paper says one thing. The river says another. The people who built their lives on the paper find out last which one was telling the truth.
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Lake Powell's power threshold: The Bureau of Reclamation's worst-case scenario shows Lake Powell could drop below its minimum power pool elevation by December 2026, halting hydropower generation at Glen Canyon Dam and cascading into electricity markets across the Southwest.
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Groundwater beneath the cuts: Over the past two decades, groundwater pumping across the Colorado River Basin has depleted more water than the entire capacity of Lake Mead, with three-quarters of that loss concentrated in Arizona, raising the question of what the bridge deal's surface-water cuts actually protect.
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The Reclamation deadline: The Bureau of Reclamation must release a final Environmental Impact Statement on post-2026 Colorado River operations before October 1, 2026, the start of the next water year, with no seven-state agreement in place to inform it.
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Colorado's measurement gap: State officials have acknowledged that roughly 2,800 Western Slope diversions remain unmeasured, and the rulemaking needed to close that gap in the Gunnison basin is still in process as compact enforcement litigation looms.