Still Standing Is Not the Same as Safe
In structural engineering, rubble has achieved its final load state. The dangerous building on the block is the one still occupied, still functioning, with a fracture in the bearing wall somebody painted over. This essay inspects five U.S. climate adaptation systems still operational as of late May 2026: Forest Service firefighting capacity, state residual insurance markets, the Colorado River Compact, the National Flood Insurance Program, and property-level climate risk disclosure. Each is assessed for what it was designed to carry, what it is now being asked to bear, and what observable evidence says about the distance between those two numbers.
Still Standing Is Not the Same as Safe
In structural engineering, rubble has achieved its final load state. The dangerous building on the block is the one still occupied, still functioning, with a fracture in the bearing wall somebody painted over. This essay inspects five U.S. climate adaptation systems still operational as of late May 2026: Forest Service firefighting capacity, state residual insurance markets, the Colorado River Compact, the National Flood Insurance Program, and property-level climate risk disclosure. Each is assessed for what it was designed to carry, what it is now being asked to bear, and what observable evidence says about the distance between those two numbers.
What Walked Out the Door
Of the 633 STEM Ph.D.s the Forest Service employed in December 2024, 137 had departed within a year. Fifty-seven of 77 research facilities are closing. Experimental forests holding decades of continuous climate and hydrologic data face uncertain futures. The shuttered stations and eliminated positions are the visible part of this. Underneath, a 2014 study found that ecological datasets decay at 17 percent per year once the people who collected them move on. The data stays on the servers. It becomes unreadable. This is an inventory of what has already left, and what it took with it.
What Walked Out the Door
Of the 633 STEM Ph.D.s the Forest Service employed in December 2024, 137 had departed within a year. Fifty-seven of 77 research facilities are closing. Experimental forests holding decades of continuous climate and hydrologic data face uncertain futures. The shuttered stations and eliminated positions are the visible part of this. Underneath, a 2014 study found that ecological datasets decay at 17 percent per year once the people who collected them move on. The data stays on the servers. It becomes unreadable. This is an inventory of what has already left, and what it took with it.
The Expiration Calendar
The second half of 2026 carries an unusual density of expirations and deadlines that will shape U.S. climate adaptation infrastructure well beyond this year. The largest: three interlocking Colorado River governing agreements expire December 31, affecting water operations for 40 million people across seven states and 30 Tribal Nations. The Bureau of Reclamation is expected to identify a preferred alternative for post-2026 river operations this summer, targeting October implementation. No seven-state consensus exists.
Below, the other clocks still running.
![Chart Notes (Patient: [REDACTED], Case #HM-2021-04872)](https://anchor.is/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fvncl-anchor-images.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com%2Fon-demand%2F1778659556_upscale.png&w=3840&q=75)
