The Colorado River's Legal Framework Was Built on a Wet Anomaly. It Expires in Four Months.

In 1922, negotiators divided 16.5 million acre-feet of Colorado River water per year among seven states. They were working from flow records that happened to capture one of the wettest stretches in the basin's modern history. The long-term average is closer to 15 million acre-feet. Since 2000, actual flows have averaged 12.4 million. Every dam, canal, farm contract, and municipal tap built since rests on that original miscalculation.

The operating agreements governing Lake Powell and Lake Mead expire in December. The seven basin states missed their February consensus deadline. Lake Powell holds 26% of its capacity. Lake Mead, 34%. The Bureau of Reclamation has said it will impose terms by October 1 if no deal materializes. Forty million people drink from the outcome.