

The Insurance Calculus


An Impossible Interview with the Man Who Sold Earthquake Cottages Without Saying the Word
CONTINUE READINGConsequence and Parallel

The Useful Fire
After 1906, San Francisco rebranded its earthquake as a fire. The insurance math worked better that way, and so did the sales pitch to investors. Then the city spent eighty-three years not requiring owners to fix the brick buildings everyone knew would fall down in the next one. The buildings were on a list that sat there until 1989.

What the Form Doesn't Ask
California's home-sale disclosure form asks whether a property sits in a mapped hazard zone. It doesn't ask about projected sea-level rise, wildfire probability, or whether any insurer will actually write a policy on the place. The information exists, but the form doesn't mention it, and the economic logic behind that silence has an eighty-year precedent.
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